15 Tauchi

Expected Contributions of the GPM to NWP/JMA: 

Expected Contributions of the GPM to NWP/JMA Toshiharu Tauchi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi and Yoshiaki Sato Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

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Contents 1. Introduction 2. Achievements of MWR for NWP - Global Model (GSM) - Meso-scale Model (MSM) 3. NWP models in the GPM era 4. Contribution of the GPM data to NWP and requirements of Operational NWP 5. Summary

1. Introduction: 

1. Introduction

NWP models and the assimilation systems at JMA: 

NWP models and the assimilation systems at JMA Altitude [m]

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Global NWP (Test) L1B TBB TPW RR MWR Observation General flow of MicroWave Radiometer assimilation Meso-scale NWP (Operational) Medium range forecast Very short-range forecast Retrieval Operational Test

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2. Achievements of MWR for NWP application

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Achievements of MWR - Global Model - - MWR water-vapor data are used in the GSM experimentally. - Better cloud distribution and rain distribution are predicted. - Forecast scores are improved in the tropics. - The development is underway.

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Achievements of MWR - Score of Geopotential (Tropics) - with MWR Forecast Score of 500hPa Geopotential [ Tropics (20S-20N) ] without MWR Better Forecast Better Forecast Improvement of 500hPa Geopotential 48hour forecast. [%] Better Worse E(Cntl) - E(Test) {E(Cntl) + E(Test)} x 0.5 E:RMSE

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Achievements of MWR - Precipitation forecast - Initial : 2004/7/18 12UTC TMI3B42 GSM without MWR GSM with MWR GOES9-IR1 Rain : 12hour Precip. ( - 7/19 00UTC) Image : GOES-9 IR Channel (7/18 21UTC)

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Achievements of MWR - Meso-scale Model - - Operational use of rain-rate and water-vapor data since 15 October 2003 ⇒ Improvement of heavy-rain prediction - Calibration of MWR rain-rate with PR data - However, PR data are not assimilated due to the insufficient coverage

A case of MWR effect- 00UTC 16 JAN 2004 initial -: 

Data Initial 12hour Forecast Obs. Upper: Meso-Model (MSM:10km) - Assim. TMI & SSM/I Lower: Regional Model (RSM:20km) - No MWR assim. A case of MWR effect - 00UTC 16 JAN 2004 initial - Analysis Forecast [mm] [mm/3h] MSM RSM

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3. NWP models in the GPM era (2007～)

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NWP Model in the GPM era - 20km Global Model - - Resolution from 60km to 20km - 2times a day to 4 times a day 60km model 20km model Observation Baiu front (19 Jun 2001 12UTC, FT=12, 12-hour precipitation)

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NWP Model in the GPM era - 5km Non-Hydrostatic Model - - Resolution from 10km to 5km - 4 times a day to 8 times a day Radar-AMeDAS rain 1818~1821UTC Using MWR Model Upgrade

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4. Contribution of the GPM data to NWP and requirements from Operational NWP Center.

TRMM to GPM- Expectation from Operational user -: 

　　 GPM data is expected to be useful more than TRMM. TRMM to GPM - Expectation from Operational user - The TRMM gives… the unique precipitation data with high quality, high availability, and high stability. the best reference data in calibration and/or validation. essential data in inter-calibration between polar-orbiting satellites The GPM will … give more accurate precipitation information. observe high latitude region. be the best reference and inter-calibration data same as TRMM.

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　　 Collaboration on GPM data use GPM other than NPOESS JMA IFNet DOMESTIC & INTERATIONAL USER NASA NOAA GPM Data NPOESS Data NPOESS GFAS Products Flood warning Forecast & Warning Forecast Met. data JAXA Assimilation & Forecast by operational model with high resolution

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JMA Requirements - To use the data effectively - Quick data delivery 50min. : Meso-Model 2.5hour : Global Model It is the most important requirement for operational forecast. Instant data delivery is expected . High accuracy High spatial resolution Large data coverage

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5. Summary 　　 - MWR data have been used in the operational NWP at JMA since October 2003 and MSM shows good forecasts. - Model upgrade and more frequent and timely GPM-data distribution have the great contributions in future NWP - TRMM contributes various favorable impact in NWP and GPM will contribute more ....