Dr Arunachalam presentation

Why Nuclear Electricity for India?: 

Why Nuclear Electricity for India? V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA andamp; Department of Engineering andamp; Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA

Growth of India’s Power Sector: 

Growth of India’s Power Sector Serious Growth after 60’s Generation 6th largest in world Per capita consumption low Close to 95% villages electrified Ministry of Power, Government of India

The Status: 

The Status Installed Capacity andgt; 120 GW Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh Coal dominant energy source (58%) Ministry of Power, Government of India

India’s Future Growth: 

India’s Future Growth India needs sustained economic growth andgt; 8% to radically improve its HDI Growth in last few years ~ 5%-7% Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power Peak shortfall Average shortfall High Tandamp;D Losses: Unscheduled black-outs, especially in rural areas Supply to agriculture sector not metered and almost free Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.

Growth Areas: 

Growth Areas Present growth is skills or resource driven (exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture) Future Growth will have to be on value addition andamp; engineering Rural sector to play a major role (agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency) Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,) Manufacturing The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth

Elasticity and Electric Power Needs: 

Elasticity and Electric Power Needs Target economic growth ~ 8% Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2 Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015: Capacity addition Investments Fuel mix Pricing and Policies Tandamp;D reforms Review of State Electricity Boards

Electric Power Requirements: 

Electric Power Requirements Required for 8% economic growth by 2015: Installed Capacity 250 GW Generation 1500 billion kWh Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh

The Task Ahead : 

The Task Ahead Need to add 135 GW in ten years 13,500 MW required per annum ~ One power plant per month China adds one per week !! Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)

Fuel Supply: Options for Future : 

Fuel Supply: Options for Future Coal Conventional Gasification Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear PHWR + FB + AHWR PLWR Wind On-shore Off-shore Biomass Solar Photo voltaic Concentrating Solar Power

King Coal ! : 

King Coal ! Reserves Proven 91 billion Tons Indicated 116 billion Tons Inferred 37 billion Tons TOTAL 245 billion Tons Coal reserves: andgt; 250 years at present levels of consumption Concentrated in Eastern India

Indian Coal Quality: 

Indian Coal Quality High ash: 25%-45% Low sulfur andlt; 0.5% Low energy content CO2 emissions andgt; 1 kg per kWh Issues with coal: Ash disposal: annual ash generation andgt; 90 million tons CO2 emissions

Coal: Future Scenarios: 

Coal: Future Scenarios Projections of coal demand (2015): High growth : 580 MT BAU scenario : 380 MT Domestic production will not be enough. Imports needed Issues: Ash generation andgt; 200 million Tons CO2 emissions andgt; 850 Million Tons Particulate and NOx emissions (presently not regulated) Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail transportation stagnation

India’s CO2 Emissions : 

India’s CO2 Emissions India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003: Coal 666 MMT Petroleum 305 MMT Natural Gas 53 MMT India’s CO2 emissions rapidly growing Trebled during 1981-2001 India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO2 However future may not be so EIA, US Department of Energy Share of global emissions

Options with Coal: 

Options with Coal Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue. Availability Cheap The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues. Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%

Hydro-Electricity: 

Hydro-Electricity Inferred potential andgt; 120 GW Installed capacity 30 GW Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and Jandamp;K Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects Environmental issues Water sharing agreements with neighbors National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India

Hydro-Electric Potential: 

Hydro-Electric Potential Details of projects under construction Ongoing and Planned Projects Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015

Natural Gas: 

Natural Gas Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide Indian statistics (2004-05): Consumption: andgt; 31 BCM/year Primary uses: Power 41% Fertilizer 32% Sponge Iron 4% Other 23% Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking) Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)

Natural Gas Pipelines: 

Natural Gas Pipelines Possible Gas Imports (Tongia andamp; Arunachalam, 1999)

Imports of Gas: 

Imports of Gas LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses as well More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies

Biomass : 

Biomass India predominantly agricultural country. Annual production of agro-forest and processing residues: 350 million tons Power generation potential andgt; 22,000 MW Advantages: Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers. Technology reasonably well developed Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions

Biomass Conversion Technologies: 

Biomass Conversion Technologies Gasifier-reciprocating engine Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for ignition Cost of electricity is high Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas Overall efficiency ~ 20% Largest gasifier 100 kW Fluidized bed combustion boilers Rice husk and bagasse 25%-30% Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in various sugar mills Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !! 50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka

Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power: 

Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power Electric power requirement of typical Indian village andlt; 100 kW ~ 75% is irrigation pumps Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few hours a day Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust Cost of generation reasonable $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible: Economics unviable due to low PLF People not willing to pay when state gives free ! Loss of organic fertilizer on land Good potential from bagasse and husk: Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.

Wind Energy: 

Wind Energy Gross potential : 45,000 MW (assuming 1% land availability in potential areas) Technical potential : 13,000 MW (assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas) Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s India ranks 5th in the world Present installed capacity ~ 3000 MW Site selection issues: More from fiscal benefits than from power Many plants not operating Low average load factor~13% Global Wind Energy Council World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)

Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries: 

Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US

Off-shore Wind in Europe: 

Off-shore Wind in Europe Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects. Wind speeds higher Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !

India: Off Shore Wind Scenario : 

India: Off Shore Wind Scenario

Nuclear Power: The Present Status: 

Nuclear Power: The Present Status

Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status: 

Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status 12 PHWR andamp; 2 BWR now under operation 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission 2950 MW generation andamp; 3000 MW under commission Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using (Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.

Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints: 

Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global technologies, materials or services Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000 MWe annually Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited

Why Cooperate?: 

Why Cooperate? India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth It must generate power from all energy sources Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation andamp; global warming Limitations of renewable energy sources

Why Cooperate?: 

Why Cooperate? Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power andamp; Responsibility Randamp;D: cooperation and Collaboration Bilateral trade andamp; economic issues Sharing global energy resources Environmental concerns Shared vision: secular, democratic andamp; caring society

Why Cooperate?: 

Why Cooperate? Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent. ---David King, Science Advisor to Prime Minister of UK

An Action Plan: 

An Action Plan Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years) Investments in Randamp;D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable andamp;affordable

An Action Plan: 

An Action Plan Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation Participation in Gen. 4 Randamp;D initiatives

Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015: 

Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015 Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions andgt; 170 Million Tons ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !

Primary energy consumption per capita: 

Primary energy consumption per capita

What If….India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?: 

What If…. India andamp; China Were 'Developed'by 2013? Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!) CO2 concentration andgt; 400 ppm Temperature rise andgt; 0.5 C Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year) Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh) Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013 (Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)

What IfIndia & China Guzzle Oil?: 

What If India andamp; China Guzzle Oil? Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day) Present Number of Cars per 1000 World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !! At Present 42 years Target: 250 Cars per 1000

I saw God In the smile of the poorMahatma Gandhi: 

I saw God In the smile of the poor Mahatma Gandhi

The cost of Power: 

The cost of Power