COP 6

The Science and Politics of Climate ChangeFresh from the Hague: 

The Science and Politics of Climate Change Fresh from the Hague Robert T. Watson Chief Scientist & Director, ESSD Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change December 6, 2000 - MC 12 Floor Gallery - 1:00 p.m.

Annual Temperature Trends, (°C / century) 1901-1999: 

Annual Temperature Trends, (°C / century) 1901-1999 Source: P. Jones, et. al. 2000.

Slide3: 

Global Temperature Observations Annual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999 The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Slide4: 

Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) Temperature Reconstruction (blue) and Instrumental Data (red) from AD 1000-1999 Source: Mann et al. 1999.

Slide5: 

Precipitation Trends (%) per Decade (1900-1994) Green • = increasing / Brown • = decreasing

Slide6: 

Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.

Slide7: 

Comparison of Temperature Observations and Model Simulations Source: Tett, et.al., 1999 and Stott, et.al., 2000.

Slide8: 

Percent of the Continental U.S. with A Much Above Normal Proportion of Total Annual Precipitation From 1-day Extreme Events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) Source: Karl, et.al. 1996.

Slide9: 

Schematic Illustration of SRES Scenarios

Slide10: 

Scenarios a 1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider non-commercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.

Slide11: 

Global CO2 Emissions from Energy & Industry Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

Slide12: 

Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS) Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

Slide13: 

Projected Change in Global Mean Surface Temperature from Models using the SRES Emissions Scenarios

Slide14: 

Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO2. The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Slide15: 

Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation for the 2050s The projected change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO2. The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Slide16: 

The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record* *As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru.

Slide17: 

Northern Hemisphere Winter

Slide18: 

Potential Climate Change Impacts

Slide19: 

Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s. University of Southampton. Annual Runoff

Slide20: 

Crop Yield Change Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice. Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 97/1091 16

Slide21: 

Climate Change and Ecological Systems Biological systems have already been affected by changes in climate at the regional scale The structure and functioning of ecological systems will be altered and the biological diversity will decrease forests, especially Boreal forests are vulnerable due to changes in disturbance regimes (pests and fires) coral reefs are threatened by increases in temperature the current terrestrial uptake of carbon will likely diminish over time and forest systems may even become a source of carbon

Slide22: 

Vector (insect)-borne Diseases Source: Modified WHO, as cited in Stone (1995).

Slide23: 

People at Risk from a 44 cm Sea-level Rise by the 2080s Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective.

Slide24: 

Sea Level Rise Commitment Thermal expansion and land ice melt after an initial 1% increase in CO2 for 70 years The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Slide25: 

Co-Benefits - Adaptation Many sectors (e.g., water resources and agriculture) are vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods and droughts associated with ENSO events Identify technologies, practices and policies that can reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate variability and can increase resilience to long-term climate change incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events into sector management decisions integrated multi-sector watershed management and appropriate water pricing policies elimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies infrastructure design (e.g., buildings, bridges, roads)

Slide26: 

Percentage Change in Emissions from 1990 to 2010

Slide27: 

Energy Emission Pathways and Stabilization Concentrations Source: IPCC. 1995. Second Assessment Report. Working Group I. Cambridge.

Slide28: 

Mitigation Options Supply Side Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas) Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%) Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.) Carbon dioxide sequestration Nuclear power Demand Side Transportation Commercial and residential buildings Industry Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management Agroforestry Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions

Slide29: 

Policy Instruments Policies, which may need regional or international agreement, include: Energy pricing strategies and taxes Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions Internalizing environmental extranalities Tradable emissions permits--domestic and global Voluntary programs Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-up Education and training such as product advisories and labels Accelerated development of technologies as well as understanding the barriers to diffusion into the marketplace requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector

Slide30: 

Fuel For Thought: Strategy for The Year 2000

Slide31: 

Co-Benefits - Mitigation Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change mitigation Identify technologies, practices and policies that can simultaneously address local and regional environmental issues and climate change energy sector indoor and outdoor air quality regional acid deposition transportation sector outdoor air pollution traffic congestion agriculture and forestry soil fertility biodiversity and related ecological goods and services

Slide32: 

Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP) Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.

Slide33: 

Health Costs (TSP in China) Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.

Slide34: 

Energy Supply Sustained Growth Scenario Source: Shell International Limited.

Slide35: 

Key Conclusions The Earth’s climate is changing - temperatures and sea level are increasing, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers are retreating, Arctic sea ice is thinning Human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities, are at least in part, the cause of the observed changes in climate The Earth’s mean annual surface temperature is projected to increase by about 1.5 to 6.0 degrees centigrade between 1990 and 2100, with land areas warming more than the oceans - precipitation patterns will change - sea level projected to rise about 50 cm (15-95 cm) by 2100

Key Conclusions: 

Key Conclusions Projected changes in climate will affect: water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid lands agricultural productivity, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics the structure and functioning, hence the goods and services, of ecological systems human settlements due to sea level rise human health, e.g, vector-borne diseases

Slide37: 

Key Conclusions A change in the Earth’s climate is inevitable The magnitude and rate of climate change will depend upon the adoption of policies, practices and technologies that influence greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation strategies can be adopted to reduce the vulnerability of socio-economic systems, ecological systems and human health to today’s climate variability and long-term human-induced climate change

Key Issues at COP-6: 

Key Issues at COP-6 While there were significant differences between the European Union and the Umbrella Group (US, Japan, Canada, Australia) agreement was almost achieved in the Hague. A number of issues of concern to developing countries still need resolution. Flexibility mechanisms LULUCF Financing Technology transfer Capacity-building Compliance Adaptation

Key Issues at COP-6 Flexibility Mechanisms (Art. 6, 12 and 17): 

capped or uncapped (EU and many developing countries want a cap in contrast to the US: affecting the size of market) secondary markets (EU and many developing countries want to eliminate secondary markets in the CDM - will decrease size of the market and incentives for private sector involvement) liability if a seller fails to deliver, i.e., seller vs buyer beware open market or regional allocations (ability of Africa and small countries to access the market) eligibility of LULUCF activities in CDM (next slide) adaptation fee - CDM or all three mechanisms (size of adaptation fund: ability to mainstream climate change into relevant sectors; ability to link near-and long-term issues) Key Issues at COP-6 Flexibility Mechanisms (Art. 6, 12 and 17)

Key Issues at COP-6LULUCF: 

Which, if any, LULUCF activities are eligible in the CDM afforestation, reforestation, slowing deforestation, forest/rangeland/cropland management, agroforestry EU and some developing countries wanted to limit/eliminate LULUCF activities in contrast to the US and other developing countries (LAC): will affect eligible activities under the PCF and access to CDM funds for clients How to address harvesting/regeneration and aggradation/ degradation (Art. 3.3 or 3.4) Whether to limit credits under Article 3.4 (EU and G77+China want to limit credits in contrast to the US, Canada, Japan) Whether the Business-as-usual uptake can be credited (US want discounted credits - EU and G77+China want no credit) Key Issues at COP-6 LULUCF

Key Issues at COP-6 Financing: 

New window under the GEF for adaptation--key issue is who manages the window and establishes priorities-- the GEF Council/secretariat or the CDM Executive Board, accountable to the COP/MOP New Convention window under the GEF for technology transfer, capacity-building, national mitigation programs, etc. -- key issues are (i) the sources of funding, e.g., third GEF replenishment, voluntary contributions, ODA, fee on Article 17, and (ii) guidance by the COP Total annual resources for climate change funding, including the adaptation and Convention window, of $1 billion Key Issues at COP-6 Financing

Key Issues at COP-6 Technology Transfer: 

Different views between developed and developing countries form an intergovernmental consultative group to facilitate the sharing of information and assess approaches to address the barriers to technology transfer Funded under the Convention window of the GEF Key Issues at COP-6 Technology Transfer

Key Issues at COP-6 Capacity Building: 

Parties will establish a framework to guide the choice of activities that will assist Developing countries implement the Convention and participate in the Kyoto Protocol Funded under the Convention window of the GEF Key Issues at COP-6 Capacity Building