Global Warming and Science: Global Warming and Science So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public
There is at least one alternate hypothesis
and a new theory
Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto What is Climate Change?: What is Climate Change? Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied
Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30 glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration with interglacial periods warmer than now between them
Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average).
IPCC recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down.
The world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they migrated around the world and lived upon the continental shelves
Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle. Pennekamp Park – Key Largo SCOOP - “Reefs keep pace with 125 metre sea level rise”: Pennekamp Park – Key Largo SCOOP - “Reefs keep pace with 125 metre sea level rise” Sea Level Rise Is Slowing Down: Sea Level Rise Is Slowing Down Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the Little Ice Age: Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the Little Ice Age Moraine From the Little Ice Age : Moraine From the Little Ice Age Sea level Rising – not as fast as the Land! : Sea level Rising – not as fast as the Land! Earth’s crust floats on the mantle like ice in water
Pushed down by ice – it is now rising
Vivid examples of residual rebound are Scandinavia and central Canada
The northern Baltic countries are rising nearly 1 metre per 100 years
The Hudson Bay region still needs to rebound as much as 150 m. in order for isostatic equilibrium to be achieved
Relax, the planet is fine…The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University: Relax, the planet is fine… The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University Solar System Perspective: Solar System Perspective What If?: What If? If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like sun-dried tomatoes
Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC
Mars - temperate zone soil
+ 27 to – 80 ºC
Moon - + 107 to - 153 ºC What is the Greenhouse Effect?It is an analogy to a garden greenhouse: What is the Greenhouse Effect? It is an analogy to a garden greenhouse Certain gasses in the atmosphere are alleged to absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that escapes into space
This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse Effect’
The ‘greenhouse’ effect is a hypothesis
This hypothesis (or the equally valid cloud cover hypothesis) gives us a global average temperature of +15°C rather than -18°C if we had no water vapour or CO2 Important Facts: Important Facts Water vapour is the most important agent - ~ 60 - 98% of the heat trapping is due to water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)
CO2 and other minor gasses account for the remainder Contribution to the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ (including water vapour) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html: Contribution to the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ (including water vapour) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html Is Global Warming Happening?: Is Global Warming Happening? Lets examine some very wiggly curves
Death Valley California (not much urban growth here) - Berkeley California: Berkeley California No global warming here : No global warming here Blaine Washington: Blaine Washington New York NY: New York NY Albany NY: Albany NY Michael Crichton - “State of Fear”, December 2004, Harper Collins: Michael Crichton - “State of Fear”, December 2004, Harper Collins
New York city has a fever then why not Albany? Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap : Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap Chicago Illinois: Chicago Illinois Buffalo NY: Buffalo NY Key West Florida: Key West Florida Global Warming: Global Warming Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series data
Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of increasing human density
Death Valley, Key West, and Blaine are far (remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs. New York City?
Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming.
Most of the graphs show little or no warming since 1950 Realistically: Realistically The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner the alarmists claim
There are many other sites that demonstrate cooling
I accept slow climate change but not the drama
EARTH’S CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING
I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO2
Why are the graphs so wiggly?
Because climate is not weather Niagara Falls NY – 1911 The next Ice Age predicted…: Niagara Falls NY – 1911 The next Ice Age predicted… Relax, the planet is fine…The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University: Relax, the planet is fine… The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries [SIC : millennia].Medieval warm period missing – Little Ice Age ???: Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543 Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries [SIC : millennia]. Medieval warm period missing – Little Ice Age ??? Kamél, 2003: Kamél, 2003 “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, have shown that first temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature increase which causes the increase in CO2 and not the other way around.
The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra warming to what is going on, but not even that is certain”. CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon: CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon Throughout the greatest temperature transitions experienced by the planet over the past 420,000 years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate change, rising from one to five thousand years after major increases in air temperature, and falling in similar manner throughout the course of the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001). CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid: CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid Solubility of solids increases directly with temperature of the solvent
sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than cold
Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water and evolves rapidly out of warm water
Don’t shake your Doctor Pepper! Observations : Observations Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due to warming of the oceans
CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your Guinness to see this effect)
CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas effect – more CO2– less effectiveness And…: And… You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the industrial revolution is tipping the climate over into uncontrollable heating… Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas: Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas The most variable component of the atmosphere is water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and because the transition between the various phases absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is central to the climate and its variability and change.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Section 1.1.2 The Climate System Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O: Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O Three CO2 absorption wavelengths at 1.4, 1.9 and 2.4 μm cannot compete with nine H2O bands Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.: Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March. Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.: Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March. UN IPCC 1740 – 2000: UN IPCC 1740 – 2000 Slide40: Beck shows several instances when CO2 was higher than today at Mauna Loa
Most recently (1942) CO2 exceeded 400 ppm
Cynics would say the Beck (2007)data are regionalized variables and realists might say “Why use Mauna Loa, an active volcano that emits CO2?” CO2 data used by the UN IPCC has fatal flaws IPCC CO2 data is F(Flawed)UBAR: IPCC CO2 data is F(Flawed)UBAR Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs. increasing CO2 content - Willis Eschenbach: Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs. increasing CO2 content - Willis Eschenbach CO2 Feedback effect: CO2 Feedback effect Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)
Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking outgoing light
More CO2– less additional greenhouse effect
Increase in CO2 has less effect because
Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This line is clearly saturated.
If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere, not much will happen
Well then what is the likely cause ?: Well then what is the likely cause ? Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit : Look up! - recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science, 1991) "Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991": CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science, 1991) "Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991" CO2 and Temperature Anomaly: CO2 and Temperature Anomaly Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890 to 1950
CO2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly from 1940 to 1970
Temperature rise does correlate with solar activity
CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine: Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine 95% correlation between sunspot peak frequency and the temperature anomaly
Sunspot curve, moreover, leads the temperature curve
But, correlation is not causation
What is the cause? The subtle part…: The subtle part… It is not only the number of sunspots…
It is not only the heat flux…
It is not only the peak frequency…
It’s all of those plus … Danish National Space Centre: Danish National Space Centre “It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in exploded stars far away in the Milky Way, penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons.
…results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first time.”
Danish Space Centre Theory: Danish Space Centre Theory ‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate
Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds → More snow → more albedo (more heat reflected) → colder climate
That's how the bulk of climate change works
Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean
When the waves are closely spaced, the planet warms Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation - our star is one pixel Betelgeuse is 427 light years away; Antares 600 light years away.: Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation - our star is one pixel Betelgeuse is 427 light years away; Antares 600 light years away. We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since sunspots were first recorded: We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since sunspots were first recorded Why, realistically, conspiracy theories aside…: Why, realistically, conspiracy theories aside… Is CO2 the target?
CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’
Repetition of stale ‘science’ sells paper
Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria!
Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo!
Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
Research grants? – Tied to outcome
All of the above? Original Sin: Original Sin Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC, Woods Hole)
Anthropogenic is 0.11% of the global CO2 cycle
Better term is ‘Anthropocentric’ implying narcissism of the environmental lobby groups
Was that not the Galileo-Copernican dilemma?
My hypothesis is volcanic: My hypothesis is volcanic Eruption of Krakatau, 1883
Key West time series – There has not been much warming of the Gulf of Mexico in modern time Skepticism or Objectivity: Skepticism or Objectivity Moving to higher ground.. Here is An Inconvenient Truth: Moving to higher ground.. Here is An Inconvenient Truth
"A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental testing becomes a scientific theory" Take this test!: Take this test! http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html Ad Hominem - ICPPIntercontinental Conspiracy Perhaps Political: Ad Hominem - ICPP Intercontinental Conspiracy Perhaps Political Main players will not debate
The world would watch
They have a weak argument
The anthropocentric bloggers will not talk about scientific issues
Don’t have science knowledge
Generalizations from particular
Polar ice and bears
Argumentum ad Hominem too common
‘Precautionary Principle’ USED against all odds
Slide61: Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario)
323 Blantyre Avenue
M1N 2S6 Canada
Albert Einstein said: " If you succeed in using the nuclear-physical findings for peaceful purposes, it will open the way to a new paradise". Key References: Key References Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas Analyses by Chemical Methods, Energy and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2 2007.
Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991: Length of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.
Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006: Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online.
Jaworoski, Zbigniew, 2007: CO2: the Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time, EIR Science, 16 March 2007.
References: References Temperature
Lars Kamél, 2003: Temperature measurements: Is climate research pseudo science?
Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made since.
United States Historical Climatology Network dataset
References: References CO2 as plant food
Eamus, D. 1996: Responses of field grown trees to CO2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.
Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003: Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.
Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998: Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2 atmosphere. New Phytologist 139: 395-436.
References: References CO2 Saturation
Elachi, Charles, 1987: Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons)
Kamél, Lars, 2003: Why we don't have to worry about CO2, Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala, Sweden
CO2 Trailing effect
Mudelsee, M., 2001: The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589.
Other Reading : Other Reading deFreitas, C.R., 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June 2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand.
McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005: Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710, doi:10.1029/2004GL021750
Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H. Said, 2006: Ad hoc committee report on the ‘Hockey stick’ global climate reconstruction, To The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, US House of Representatives.
The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report consists of four sub-reports: 1) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2) Climate Change 2001: Impacts , Adaptation and Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change 2001:Mitigation, and 4) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.
Acknowledgements: Acknowledgements Jim Tilsley