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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATIONFOR THENEW YORK CITY AREA: 

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY RECENT RESULTS by Michael Tantala, George Deodatis and Guy J. P. Nordenson funded by FEMA, MCEER, NYSEMO EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

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This research seeks to provide a forecast of the types of losses that the New York area could suffer after an earthquake EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

INTRODUCTION : 

INTRODUCTION This research seeks to provide a forecast of the types of losses that the New York area could suffer after an earthquake Risk is typically defined by 3 components: a hazard (the earthquake) the assests involved (our focus is the building stock), and the fragility of those assests There is a low probability of recurrence of earthquakes HOWEVER the NYC area is high risk because of: portfolio concentration, and the fragility of that portfolio most structures are not seismically designed like those on the West Coast the 1st seismic code was just passed in 1995 Scenarios were performed using the HAZUS (or Hazards US) modeling GIS code Essential/Critical Facilities Studied EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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HAZUS stands for Hazards US A software that utilizes geographic information systems (like arcview and mapinfo) to produce detailed maps and analytical reports that describe a community’s potential losses A standardized nationally-applicable earthquake loss estimation model About 700 users (public and private) in 50 states and several foreign plans to include multi-hazard analysis in the future including wind and flooding hazards EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

METHODOLOGY : 

METHODOLOGY Define Earthquake Hazard Seismic Sources Attenuation Relationships Recurrence Relationships Define the Inventory Characteristics Structure Location, Value, Year Built Construction Class, Occupancy Class, Soil Type Estimate Inventory Damage Building Capacity and Fragility Curves Calculate Economic Loss Expected Losses Probable Mean Loss (PML) EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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Risk Exposure: What does Manhattan have to risk? Within the 27 square mile region, there are 298 census tracts: 717,000 households 1.5 million people 37,000 buildings with 2.2 billion square feet with a replacement value of $347 B (not contents) [2001 $] EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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Manhattan is unique in that it has a significant number of buildings greater than 20 stories EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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Distribution of Year of Construction 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1882 1890 1898 1906 1914 1922 1930 1938 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 Year of Construction Number of Buildings Pre-1945 Lower Manhattan Buildings are shaded Red EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results New Jersey Connecticut New York Manhattan = epicenter location

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6.0M 5.0M 7.0M Deterministic (Fixed Location) PGA, Peak Ground Acceleration 0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 PGA, % g acceleration District Key EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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500 year event 100 year event 2500 year event Probabilistic PGA, Peak Ground Acceleration District Key 0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 PGA, % g acceleration EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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30,000 Above 400,000 120,000 240,000 Total Loss 2001$ (Thousands) District Key 6.0M 5.0M 7.0M Deterministic (Fixed Location) EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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Above 400,000 120,000 240,000 Total Loss 2001$ (Thousands) District Key 30,000 500 year event 100 year event 2500 year event Probabilistic EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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District Key Casualties – 2pm earthquake Casualties 4 (Instant Death) 2 At least 24 8 16 # of People CAS 4 or CAS 3 6.0M 5.0M 7.0M Deterministic (Fixed Location) EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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District Key 500 year event 100 year event 2500 year event Probabilistic Casualties – 2pm earthquake Casualties 4 (Instant Death) 2 At least 24 8 16 # of People CAS 4 or CAS 3 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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people in need of hospitalization 6.0M 5.0M 7.0M Deterministic (Fixed Location) District Key Essential Facilities – Medical Casualties 2 (Hospitalization Required) + Casualties 3 (Immediate Medical Attention) distance to nearest major medical facility (meters) 300 Above 4,000 1,200 2,400 medical facility functionality at day 0 (%) each dot is 5 five people Average Functionality 96% Average Functionality 63% Average Functionality 26% beds available 9,387 beds available 6,130 beds available 2,627 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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500 year event 100 year event 2500 year event Probabilistic Essential Facilities – Medical Casualties 2 (Hospitalization Required) + Casualties 3 (Immediate Medical Attention) distance to nearest major medical facility (meters) people in need of hospitalization distance to nearest major medical facility (meters) 300 Above 4,000 1,200 2,400 medical facility functionality at day 0 (%) each dot is 5 five people Average Functionality 99% Average Functionality 51% Average Functionality 26% beds available 9,711 beds available 5,025 beds available 2,627 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results District Key

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District Key Total Debris Generation 0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 Contoured PGA, % g Debris: Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete each dot represents 10 tons 6.0M 5.0M 7.0M Deterministic (Fixed Location) EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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Total Debris Generation District Key 0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 Contoured PGA, % g Debris: Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete each dot represents 10 tons 500 year event 100 year event 2500 year event Probabilistic EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results

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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR THE NEW YORK CITY AREA Princeton NYCEM Research Group Recent Results