AWhiteside PoliticalGeographyof AIDS

The Political Geography of AIDS : 

The Political Geography of AIDS Alan Whiteside Director,HEARD, University of KwaZulu-Natal and Leverhulme Visiting Professor, Centre for AIDS Research Southampton University

Outline of presentation: 

Outline of presentation Physical geography Economic geography Human geography Demography Development

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001: 

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% trend data unavailable outside region 1986 1991 1996 2001

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, end 2001: 

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, end 2001 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% trend data unavailable outside region 2001

Slide5: 

5

Slide6: 

Intro.

Outline of presentation: 

Outline of presentation Physical geography Economic geography Human geography Demography Development

Slide9: 

Wealth and HIV 1000 $ 2000 $ 3000 $ Per capita 1999 Adult HIV prevalence end 1999 Botswana South Africa Namibia Swaziland Zimbabwe Uganda Cote d’Ivoire Zambia 10 10 20 30

Slide11: 

World HIV Chart 2001 Percent adults living with HIV (log) 0.1 Annual income per person in US dollar (ppp & log) 300 40 000 1 000 5 000 10 000 20 000 2 000 500 0.5 1 5 10 30 20 7 3 2 Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Rep. Chad Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Côte d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Rep. Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea- Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary Iceland Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kenya Republic of Korea Latvia Lesotho Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Mauritius Mexico Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Nigeria Norway Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Portugal Romania Russia Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Singapore Slovenia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Tajikistan Thailand Togo Trinidad & Tobago Turkey Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States of America Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Burkina Faso India AIDS deaths per year 300 000 100 000 10 000 1 000 Africa Americas Arab countries Asia Europe Continents 0.2 0.3

Slide12: 

World HIV Chart 2001 Percent adults living with HIV (log) 0.1 Annual income per person in US dollar (ppp & log) 300 40 000 1 000 5 000 10 000 20 000 2 000 500 0.5 1 5 10 30 20 7 3 2 Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Rep. Chad Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Côte d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Rep. Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea- Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary Iceland Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kenya Republic of Korea Latvia Lesotho Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Mauritius Mexico Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Nigeria Norway Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Portugal Romania Russia Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Singapore Slovenia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Tajikistan Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Turkey Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States of America Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Burkina Faso India AIDS deaths per year 300 000 100 000 10 000 1 000 Africa Americas Arab countries Asia Europe Continents 0.2 0.3 X200?

Slide13: 

World HIV Chart 2001 Percent adults living with HIV (log) 0.1 Annual income per person in US dollar (purchasing power) Log 300 40 000 1 000 5 000 10 000 20 000 2 000 500 0.5 1 5 10 30 20 7 3 2 Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Rep. Chad Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Côte d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea- Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary Iceland Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kenya Republic of Korea Latvia Lesotho Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Mauritius Mexico Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Nigeria Norway Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Portugal Romania Russia Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Singapore Slovenia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Tajikistan Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Turkey Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States of America Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Burkina Faso India AIDS deaths per year 300 000 100 000 10 000 1 000 Africa Americas Arab countries Asia Europe Continents 0.2 0.3 10 X 20 =200

Outline of presentation: 

Outline of presentation Physical geography Economic geography Human geography Demography Development

Numbers infected, sick & dead ASSA2000: 

Numbers infected, sick & dead ASSA2000

All orphans & orphans due to AIDS by HIV prevalence Uganda: 

All orphans & orphans due to AIDS by HIV prevalence Uganda 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 0 0.5 million 1 million 1.5 million 2 million Total Number 0 6% 12% HIV Prevalence

Estimated and projected deaths 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025: 

Estimated and projected deaths 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025 Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2002) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Deaths (thousands) 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Without AIDS With AIDS

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cambodia Haiti Mozambique Rwanda Côte d'Ivoire Zambia Kenya South Africa Zimbabwe Botswana Life expectancy at birth (years) Predicted life expectancy Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS Predicted loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates: 

Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates

Outline of presentation: 

Outline of presentation Physical geography Economic geography Human geography Demography Development

Changing life expectancy in African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005: 

Changing life expectancy in African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005 Source: UNAIDS, 2002. Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic

Slide22: 

Projected Population Structure: Botswana 20202020 Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000