welinski 2

Bruxelles, July the 15th: 

Bruxelles, July the 15th New Screens New Medias Video and Broadband

Agenda: 

Agenda Prospects for video related to Internet developments as well as cinematographic and audiovisual production. What are real business opportunities that broadband offers the distribution of cinematographic and audio-visual products? Internet, Broadband Internet, ADSL, Wi-fi, interactive TV.

1- End Of The Internet Bubble (1999/2001) : 

1- End Of The Internet Bubble (1999/2001)

The Current Audiovisual Value Chain: 

The Current Audiovisual Value Chain Producer Distributor Editor Channel Aggregator Bouquet Diffusion Portal What was to change

Mergers of Big Companies: Remember! : 

Mergers of Big Companies: Remember! AOL/Time Warner. Bertelsmann-Napster. Vivendi Universal.

Painful Disillusions when the Bubble Bursts (2000) : 

Painful Disillusions when the Bubble Bursts (2000) Withdrawing of the financial markets with respect to the NTIC. Implosion of the fully Integrated Groups Internet Content market remain flat

Where are we just now?: 

Where are we just now? Didn’t one throw the baby out with the bathwater?

2 - The New Deal (2002): 

2 - The New Deal (2002)

Two Major Impulses Since 2002: 

Two Major Impulses Since 2002 DVD   Broadband

New Value Chain: 

New Value Chain Production Syndication Software ISP

Key Questions: 

Key Questions Is there really a business model for video products on-line? Which are the cultural stakes related to the Web (World Wide Web).

Explosion of Broadband: 

Explosion of Broadband The number of ADSL lines worldwide: 46 million at the end of 2002 (30 million at the end of 2001). Quadrupling of medium-heavy traffic PC always connected Unlimited consumption

The Broadband Market derived from free downloading: 

The Broadband Market derived from free downloading Electronic mail constituted the "killer ap'" of the Internet first generation. Free down loading is the driver of Broadband value for consumers. Games, softwares, and videos are at the heart of the promise. Currently, only the game on line represents a paying market.

Threats! : 

Threats!

To Summarise: 

To Summarise The spontaneous culture of Net surfers is exempt from payment for content, and related to the free sharing of contents.  Free down loading is the driver of Broadband. Video is a large part of the promise.

Consequences: 

Consequences The fight against industrial hacking becomes a central stake for the movie industry, But Internet is not the the only responsible for hacking. The rights owners are relatively lonely in this battle.

3- The Divine Surprise: 

3- The Divine Surprise

The DVD Leads To New Consumer Behavior: 

The DVD Leads To New Consumer Behavior 60% of consumers buy on average a DVD per month (28% for VHS). 60% of the purchases (or hiring) are due to the willingness to see a film missed in the cinema, against 40% for VHS. DVD now draws the TV set market (home theater, flat screens etc).

4- In Search of Graal : 

4- In Search of Graal

Shall We Believe in TV by ADSL ?: 

Shall We Believe in TV by ADSL ? New technology allows to broadcast TV by ADSL without additional installation. Possibility of "triple play" for telecom operators : telephone+Internet+TV. But low potential if the offer is reduced to a few thematic channels. The interest lies within new VoD style offerings.

New Consumer Tendencies related to DVD : 

New Consumer Tendencies related to DVD The small screen competes with large screens (cinema) Strong qualitative request from consumers New consumers gradually break free from TV schedules: Choosing time gains ground in comparison to imposed time

5- Towards a New Way Of Video Consumption : 

5- Towards a New Way Of Video Consumption

VOD:Which technology?: 

VOD:Which technology? Cable is well positioned in the countries where it is fully deployed (USA, Nederland, Belgium, etc.) In all other countries, satellite allows already restricted VoD Telcos will develop their offer later, after the ADSL network has matured.

First Steps: 

First Steps PVR in the USA, (Tivo and Sony): a slow but regular progression STB : France Pilotime (Canal+) and Platinium (TPS) Sony digital recorder Tivo Série 2

VoD: Take-up around 2007 : 

VoD: Take-up around 2007 2007

Principal Conclusions (1): 

Principal Conclusions (1) Broadband will strongly stimulate video on Internet Development of Broadband will probably enhance the advertising business model, but on a modest scale. Free audiovisual offerings, legal or illegal, will continue to grow on the Internet. Hacking constitutes the principal threat for the audiovisual industry and more specifically for the cinema.

Principal Conclusions (2): 

Principal Conclusions (2) The electronic distribution of audio-visual productions (DVD or VoD) is the principal stake of the video business for the five next years. Television will become more and more interactive. Paying TV by ADSL constitutes a real, but limited market. VoD could be a strong opportunity for the audiovisual production.  

Europe: 3 Directions to Remain in the Race.: 

Europe: 3 Directions to Remain in the Race.

1-Launch an ISP/Producer negotiation in order to stimulate the dialogue between the technical operators, ISPs and producers, in particular on the question of hacking : 

1-Launch an ISP/Producer negotiation in order to stimulate the dialogue between the technical operators, ISPs and producers, in particular on the question of hacking

2- Quickly inform the case for VoD from a commercial, technical and legal point of view. : 

2- Quickly inform the case for VoD from a commercial, technical and legal point of view.

3- The Culture Issue: Launch a reflexion about the linguistic and cultural presence of European Cultures on the Internet: 

3- The Culture Issue: Launch a reflexion about the linguistic and cultural presence of European Cultures on the Internet

Thank You for your Attention: 

Thank You for your Attention