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Premium member Presentation Transcript 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP: 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP James Boylan, Amit Marmur, Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan VISTAS Joint Work Group Meeting Durham, NC September 23, 2005Slide2: Attainment Status in Georgia Ozone non-attainment areas PM2.5 non-attainment areasSlide3: Air Quality in Atlanta Ozone 4th highest values (1997-2004) Design value (JST): 17.4 g/m3 PM2.5 composition (2001-2003)VISTAS 12 km Modeling: VISTAS 12 km Modeling Ozone in Atlanta (May): Ozone in Atlanta (May)Ozone in Atlanta (June): Ozone in Atlanta (June)Ozone in Atlanta (July): Ozone in Atlanta (July)Ozone in Atlanta (August): Ozone in Atlanta (August)Ozone in Atlanta (September): Ozone in Atlanta (September)Future Ozone Design Values: Future Ozone Design Values Calculated for all sites in Georgia 2002 and 2009 BaseD emissions 5-year weighted Design Values RRF cut-off of 85 ppb when > 10 days Used maximum value in 3 x 3 matrixFuture Ozone Design Values: Future Ozone Design Values *Need ozone buffer below 85 ppb (e.g., 4 ppb in Atlanta)Georgia EPD Modeling: Georgia EPD Modeling Slide13: VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km GA 4 kmEpisode Selection: Episode Selection CART (Classification And Regression Tree) analysis Ozone – Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga, Augusta, Columbus PM2.5 – Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002Slide15: Maximum 8-Hour Ozone Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2002 emissions Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2009 emissions Slide16: Episode Average PM2.5 Episode average PM2.5 concentration 2002 emissions Episode average PM2.5 concentration 2009 emissions Regional Sensitivities: Regional Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) 10% Emission Reductions NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon 12-km ALGA domain 4-km for summertime VOCs (?) Emission Regions Atlanta, Macon, Columbus, Chattanooga, Athens, Floyd CountySlide18: NOx and VOCs in Atlanta Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic NOx in the Atlanta area on June 12, 2002 Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic VOC in the Atlanta area on June 12, 2002Slide19: NOx and VOCs in Macon Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic NOx in the Macon area on June 13, 2002 Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic VOC in the Macon area on June 13, 2002Slide20: Carbon and SO2 in Atlanta Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic primary carbon in the Atlanta area; episode average Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic SO2 in the Atlanta area; episode average Point Source Sensitivities: Point Source Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) SCR (NOx) and Scrubber (SO2) Reductions 12-km ALGA domainSlide22: EGU Controls: Ozone Sensitivity to a 68% reduction in NOx (2 SCRs) from Plant McDonough on June 12, 2002 Sensitivity to a 53% reduction in NOx (4 SCRs) from Plant Scherer on June 3, 2002Slide23: EGU Controls: PM2.5 Sensitivity to a 95% reduction in SO2 (4 scrubbers) and a 68% reduction in NOx (4 SCRs) from Plant Scherer; episode average Sensitivity to a 88% reduction in SO2 (2 scrubbers) from Plant Bowen; episode average Slide24: Branch (34%) Hammond (68%) McDonough (68%) Scherer (63%) Yates (33%) High Ozone DaySlide25: Episode Average PM2.5 Bowen (88%, NA) Branch (95%,34%) Hammond (95%,68%) McDonough (95%,68%) Scherer (95%,63%) Wansley ( 87%, NA) Yates (63%,33%)Slide26: Regional SensitivitiesSlide27: Point Source SensitivitiesSlide28: Current & Future Modeling Regional and Point Emission Sensitivities Winter Episode (ALGA 12 km) Generate and Apply CART Weights Seasonal ozone and annual PM2.5 responses 4 km Ozone Sensitivities (?) Annual and Seasonal Control Simulations ALGA 36 km grid for regional haze ALGA 12 km grid for PM2.5 GA 4 km grid for ozone Jim Boylan Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851: Jim Boylan Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851 Contact Information You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
13 Boylan GASIPmodeling Veronica1 Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 50 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: February 20, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP: 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP James Boylan, Amit Marmur, Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan VISTAS Joint Work Group Meeting Durham, NC September 23, 2005Slide2: Attainment Status in Georgia Ozone non-attainment areas PM2.5 non-attainment areasSlide3: Air Quality in Atlanta Ozone 4th highest values (1997-2004) Design value (JST): 17.4 g/m3 PM2.5 composition (2001-2003)VISTAS 12 km Modeling: VISTAS 12 km Modeling Ozone in Atlanta (May): Ozone in Atlanta (May)Ozone in Atlanta (June): Ozone in Atlanta (June)Ozone in Atlanta (July): Ozone in Atlanta (July)Ozone in Atlanta (August): Ozone in Atlanta (August)Ozone in Atlanta (September): Ozone in Atlanta (September)Future Ozone Design Values: Future Ozone Design Values Calculated for all sites in Georgia 2002 and 2009 BaseD emissions 5-year weighted Design Values RRF cut-off of 85 ppb when > 10 days Used maximum value in 3 x 3 matrixFuture Ozone Design Values: Future Ozone Design Values *Need ozone buffer below 85 ppb (e.g., 4 ppb in Atlanta)Georgia EPD Modeling: Georgia EPD Modeling Slide13: VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km GA 4 kmEpisode Selection: Episode Selection CART (Classification And Regression Tree) analysis Ozone – Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga, Augusta, Columbus PM2.5 – Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002Slide15: Maximum 8-Hour Ozone Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2002 emissions Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2009 emissions Slide16: Episode Average PM2.5 Episode average PM2.5 concentration 2002 emissions Episode average PM2.5 concentration 2009 emissions Regional Sensitivities: Regional Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) 10% Emission Reductions NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon 12-km ALGA domain 4-km for summertime VOCs (?) Emission Regions Atlanta, Macon, Columbus, Chattanooga, Athens, Floyd CountySlide18: NOx and VOCs in Atlanta Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic NOx in the Atlanta area on June 12, 2002 Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic VOC in the Atlanta area on June 12, 2002Slide19: NOx and VOCs in Macon Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic NOx in the Macon area on June 13, 2002 Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic VOC in the Macon area on June 13, 2002Slide20: Carbon and SO2 in Atlanta Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic primary carbon in the Atlanta area; episode average Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic SO2 in the Atlanta area; episode average Point Source Sensitivities: Point Source Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) SCR (NOx) and Scrubber (SO2) Reductions 12-km ALGA domainSlide22: EGU Controls: Ozone Sensitivity to a 68% reduction in NOx (2 SCRs) from Plant McDonough on June 12, 2002 Sensitivity to a 53% reduction in NOx (4 SCRs) from Plant Scherer on June 3, 2002Slide23: EGU Controls: PM2.5 Sensitivity to a 95% reduction in SO2 (4 scrubbers) and a 68% reduction in NOx (4 SCRs) from Plant Scherer; episode average Sensitivity to a 88% reduction in SO2 (2 scrubbers) from Plant Bowen; episode average Slide24: Branch (34%) Hammond (68%) McDonough (68%) Scherer (63%) Yates (33%) High Ozone DaySlide25: Episode Average PM2.5 Bowen (88%, NA) Branch (95%,34%) Hammond (95%,68%) McDonough (95%,68%) Scherer (95%,63%) Wansley ( 87%, NA) Yates (63%,33%)Slide26: Regional SensitivitiesSlide27: Point Source SensitivitiesSlide28: Current & Future Modeling Regional and Point Emission Sensitivities Winter Episode (ALGA 12 km) Generate and Apply CART Weights Seasonal ozone and annual PM2.5 responses 4 km Ozone Sensitivities (?) Annual and Seasonal Control Simulations ALGA 36 km grid for regional haze ALGA 12 km grid for PM2.5 GA 4 km grid for ozone Jim Boylan Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851: Jim Boylan Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851 Contact Information