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U.S. Renewables Share Source: Renewable Energy Trends 2004; Energy Information Administration, August 2005. Note: Total U.S. Energy Supply is 100.278 QBtu; Energy Information Administration, August 2005. Natural Gas 23% Nuclear 8% Petroleum 40% Coal 23% Energy Consumption 2004Wisconsin: Renewables Share: Source: Wisconsin Energy Statistics 2005 (Consumption) 1 Btu = 1.055 kJ Wisconsin: Renewables ShareSOLAR RESOURCE: SOLAR RESOURCE 120,000 TW Yearly average consumption rate 13 TW Renewable energy potential is many times the world demand for energy. < 2% of the earth’s surface Source: www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 309 22 JULY 2005SOLAR ENERGY OPTIONS: Large-Scale Utility Scale Power Concentrating solar Photovoltaics Wind Solar Fuels Biomass Hydrogen Distributed Heating and cooling Domestic hot water Roof-top PV electricity SOLAR ENERGY OPTIONSSlide6: Post consumer residues are the current source of most biomass power Corn (largest volume grain and source of EtOH in U.S.) potential to displace 10-20% of gasoline1 Soybeans, fats & greases (largest sources of biodiesel) potential to displace 5-10% of diesel1 Over 1 billion tons/year of lignocellulosic biomass (trees, grasses, etc.) could be available in the U.S. potential to displace 50-70% of gasoline1 Status and Advantages Low energy density Competition with food-based agriculture Scale up to biorefineries Barriers BIOMASS 1Source: Ralph Overend, NREL, National Renewable Energy Laboratory http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/ http://www.nrel.gov/biomass Not a Food SupplySlide7: WIND POWER Cost competitive - 5 to 6 ¢/kWh Rapid growth Large power plants capable of feeding into the grid Global capacity – 2 to 4 TWe1 Unpredictable and intermittent output Perceived environmental issues Visual impact - Beauty is in the eye of the beholder Land Use - 95% is available for agricultural use Noise - Lower than most road noise Avian death ……. NSP 750-kW turbines Status and Advantages Barriers 1Estimated by IPCCSlide8: DISH STIRLING POWER TROUGH CONCENTRATING SOLAR Source: Tom Mancini, Sandia Natl. LabPower Trough: Line focus; limited to 750K Conventional steam-Rankine cycle Solar-to-electric conversion = 11% Capacity factor = 30% 350 MWe operating in California since 1989 Annual production > 650 GWh U.S. deployments 64 MW, SolarGenix, NV – I yr 1 MW, SolarGenix, AZ – online International 400 MW, Algeria 500 MW, Israel 228 MW, Morocco Sargent & Lundy: ASSESSMENT OF PARABOLIC TROUGH AND POWER TOWER SOLAR TECHNOLOGY COST AND PERFORMANCE FORECASTS, SL-5641 MAY 2003. Subject to a set of assumptions including: 3 GW deployed by 2020, storage utilized, incentives in place, etc. Power TroughPower Tower(central receiver): Power Tower (central receiver) 2-axis tracking, 1000K Ready for deployment but no commercial plants in operation today. Conventional steam-Rankine cycle Demonstrated in U.S. at 10MW Solar-to-electric conversion = 14% Capacity Factor = 65% Contracted/Planned Deployments: 11MW in Spain Fall 2006 100MW in South Africa COST AND PERFORMANCE FORECASTS, SL-5641 2003.Dish Stirling: Dish Stirling On-axis tracking – parabolic dish No commercial dish Stirling power plants today. Distributed generation or bulk power Modular - 10 and 25 kW Stirling engines Annual solar-to-electric conversion = 22 % Current cost 12 -30 ¢/kWh Contracted/Planned Deployment 500 MW with SCE - 4500 acres; 20,000 dishes 300 MW with SDG&E – 12,000 systems Concentrating Solar Fuels: Converts solar radiation to chemical potential Relies on concentrators Provides long-term storage Source of clean hydrogen/decarbonization of low-grade coal Cost competitive only if cost of carbon emissions are considered Numerous demonstration projects Graphics are courtesy of Aldo Steinfeld, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH-Zurich Concentrating Solar FuelsDISTRIBUTED SOLAR: An opportunity for homeowners, businesses, schools and governments to contribute to the Wisconsin’s clean energy supply. Low-temperature solar thermal has the potential to benefit homeowners, and to diversify the energy sources needed to meet Wisconsin’s energy needs. No technical barriers stand in the way of widespread adoption. DISTRIBUTED SOLARDistributed Solar is Regionally Appropriate.: Distributed Solar is Regionally Appropriate. Photovoltaics: Photovoltaics Cost Effective PV Direct conversion of solar energy to electricity Consumer products - low power, cost competitive – 65MW Off-grid is widely used; typically requires storage – 95 MW Grid-connected residential and commercial – 368 MW Status Amorphous Thin Film Lowest cost 8<<15% Non silicon & Concentrators Poly-Crystal Moderate cost 13<<15% Single-Crystal highest cost 15<<20%Slide17: Builder/trade/owner acceptance Initial cost Stagnant market Storage for heating SOLAR HEATING BarriersSlide18: Flat plate or low concentration Annual efficiency = 40% Payback of 5 to 15 years Solar H2O and HeatingSlide19: Over 100 million m2 collectors worldwide Many of these countries have less solar resource than the Midwest yet they have more aggressive solar incentive programs Germany, Greece and Austria are the three largest markets in Europe, with a combined installed solar thermal area of 9.6 million m2 in 2003. Austria (population of 8.1 million) has an installed solar thermal capacity of 1.5 GWth, equal to that of the installed solar thermal capacity in the US (population 294 million). World-wide DeploymentUS Solar Water Heating Market : US Solar Water Heating Market Arizona 500 California 500 Colorado 200 Florida 500 Hawaii 3,500 Mid-Atlantic 500 New England 200 Oregon 250 6,000 new systems/year1 40,000 pool heaters May 1889 It worries me a lot when I think that I have done so many pictures and drawings without ever selling one. Vincent van Gogh 1Source: Survey of US solar hot water manufacturers conducted by Les Nelson, Western Renewable Group, Data agree with collector area data reported by DOE EIAConsider the Potential BenefitsUS Energy Consumption : Consider the Potential Benefits US Energy Consumption 65% of total U.S. electricity consumption 36% of total U.S. primary energy use 30% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions Buildings Source: US DOE Annual Energy OutlookSlide22: 2005 Wisconsin Energy Statistics, Wisconsin Division of Energy, Madison WI 2004 Trillions of Btu and Percent of Total Wisconsin Energy Consumption Residential 419 (23%) Transportation 447 (25%) Commercial 347 (19%) Industrial 549 (31%) Agriculture 37 (2%) 136 Trillion Btu is natural gas - 36% of Wisconsin’s NG use End Use in Residential and Commercial Buildings : Other 38% Heat 13% Lights 24% Cool 12% H2O 7% Ventilate 6% End Use in Residential and Commercial Buildings Residential CommercialOpportunity for Energy Savings and Carbon Reduction : Opportunity for Energy Savings and Carbon Reduction Assume 50% of electric and 20% of gas water heaters are replaced with solar (Solar fraction = 0.5) 88 billion kWh (0.3 quads) in homes 50 billion kWh (0.17 quads) in commercial bldgs. 9.4 million tons of carbon 7 million carsProjections for the Future of Renewables: Projections for the Future of Renewables Concerns about the environment and regulatory pressures will increase the demand for renewable energy technologies A mix of technologies is the best pathway to implementation Relatively mature technologies need the right market conditions/incentives Incremental improvements in technologies will improve cost effectiveness and reliabilityUse Regional Resource: Use Regional ResourceEnable Low-Risk Technologies: Enable Low-Risk Technologies No major technical barriers prevent widespread adoption Technology is proven Enough sunshine Major obstacles Costs are heavily front-loaded Storage must be addressed as use of renewables expands Lack of sustained R&D funding and incentives Market is too weak to support industry R&D or investment Public R&D funding is inadequate to maintain competency Congressional earmarks reduce $ for innovation Stimuli are needed to accelerate demand and drive down costs Acceptance of new technologies Customer, trade and institutional barriers Opportunities & Challenges: Opportunities & Challenges Support state-level performance-based financial incentives to stimulate market Establish outreach & education to increase recognition of solar benefits and facilitate rational choice Expedite development of current technology Support public purchasing Establish stable, long-term programs to attract investment Encourage “Zero Energy Buildings” and compensate owners for their contributions to the region’s energy supply Support R&D for advanced technologies A Different Energy Pie: A Different Energy Pie Current Pie 2005 Wisconsin Energy Statistics, Wisconsin Division of Energy, Madison WIThe future is brighter!: The future is brighter! 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