caruso030708

Slide1: 

Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Netherlands Institute of International Relations The Hague March 7, 2008 United States Energy Outlook and Policies Affecting the Outlook

Energy Information Administration: 

Energy Information Administration EIA was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 Independent since its creation EIA does not promote, formulate, or take positions on policy issues Outlook is based on EIA’s recently issued Annual Energy Outlook 2008

Revised AEO2008 reference case indicates that through 2030...: 

Revised AEO2008 reference case indicates that through 2030... U.S. energy demand grows at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent The energy efficiency of the economy improves at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, decreases over the next 25 years U.S. natural gas use declines over the last decade of the projection Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions from energy grow at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent

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Energy prices are expected to decline in the near term, then rise Crude Oil Electricity Coal Natural Gas Projections History 2006 dollars per million Btu

World oil prices are higher than in previous projections: 

Reference High Price Low Price World oil prices are higher than in previous projections 2006 dollars per barrel History Projections

U.S. energy consumption grows slowly: 

Nuclear Natural Gas Liquids Coal Renewables 99.5 118.0 111.0 103.3 U.S. energy consumption grows slowly quadrillion Btu History Projections

The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption: 

Industrial Transportation Residential and Commercial Electric Power The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption million barrels per day History Projections

Domestic crude oil production grows in the near term: 

Domestic crude oil production grows in the near term Lower 48 Onshore Lower 48 Offshore Alaska million barrels per day History Projections

Natural gas consumption grows over the next decade, then declines slowly: 

Transportation Residential Commercial Industrial 21.7 22.7 23.4 23.2 Natural gas consumption grows over the next decade, then declines slowly Electric Power trillion cubic feet History Projections

U.S. electricity consumption grows slowly in all sectors: 

3,814 4,037 4,482 Residential Commercial Industrial 4,971 U.S. electricity consumption grows slowly in all sectors billion kilowatthours History Projections

Natural gas generation offset by growth in coal, nuclear, and renewables: 

- percent of total Natural gas generation offset by growth in coal, nuclear, and renewables billion kilowatthours

The strongest growth in renewable generation is in biomass and wind: 

The strongest growth in renewable generation is in biomass and wind billion kilowatthours

A variety of fuel sources support the new renewable fuel standard: 

Corn-Based Ethanol Legislated RFS Table Values Cellulose-Based Ethanol A variety of fuel sources support the new renewable fuel standard Net Ethanol Imports billion credits Ethanol from Other Feedstocks Biodiesel Liquids from Biomass RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments History Projections

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Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions million metric tons Delivered, including losses Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Power Carbon dioxide emissions grow at a slower rate

Key Uncertainties in the Projections: 

Key Uncertainties in the Projections Macroeconomic growth Energy prices Technological changes Government policy initiatives

U.S. Energy Policy (based on Department of Energy): 

U.S. Energy Policy (based on Department of Energy) Increasing Energy Security remains a top priority of the Bush Administration In 2001 the Administration issued the National Energy Policy with over 100 recommendations. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) was the first comprehensive energy legislation passed by Congress in over a decade. To complement the goals in EPAct, President Bush proposed the Advanced Energy Initiative (AEI), American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI), and the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). In December 2007, the President signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

Goal: Energy Security: 

Goal: Energy Security The President’s initiatives further advance the Administration’s goal to provide a long-term strategy to confront energy challenges in a balanced, comprehensive, and environmentally-responsible way through diversification of supply and suppliers, increased energy efficiency, and modernization protection of the U.S. energy infrastructure.

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: 

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Improves Fuel Economy Sets national fuel standard at 35 miles per gallon by 2020, which will increase fuel economy standards by 40 percent and save billions of gallons of fuel Expands production of renewable fuels Sets a mandatory Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022 representing a nearly five-fold increase over current levels Responds to the President’s “Twenty in Ten” Initiative Demands Energy Efficiency Federal buildings convert to Energy Star products by 2013 and new standards set for home appliances

Energy Agenda for 2008: 

Energy Agenda for 2008 The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 goes a long way, but the President has remaining energy proposals: Electric Power: Generate electric power using increased cleaner coal technology, solar and wind energy, and nuclear energy Domestic Supply of Oil: In a prudent and environmentally- sensitive way, pass legislation opening access to domestic energy sources such as the Outer Continental Shelf and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Double the capacity to 1.5 billion barrels to protect against severe supply disruptions

U.S. Climate Change Policy Approach: Department of Energy Overview: 

U.S. Climate Change Policy Approach: Department of Energy Overview Harnesses the power of markets and technological innovation, maintains economic growth, and encourages global participation Reaffirms U.S. commitment to goal of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Places climate change in a broader context that includes enhancing energy security, encouraging economic growth, and reducing air pollution

Five Basic Elements: 

Five Basic Elements Advancing climate science to reduce uncertainties Policies and measures to slow the growth in greenhouse gas emissions with a Presidential goal to improve U.S. greenhouse gas emissions intensity 18 percent from 2002 to 2012 Accelerating technology development Expanding finance and open trade in clean energy goods and services Promoting a new international framework for collaboration

Major New Initiatives: 

Major New Initiatives

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Africa Middle East Latin America Southeast Asia India China Korea Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe Japan Australia_NZ Western Europe Canada United States Annex 1 Non-Annex 1 Data derived from Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Business-As-Usual CO2 Emission Projections by Region, gigatons per year Scale of the Global Challenge: Why Developing Countries are Key Non-Annex I Emissions Equal Annex I Emissions about 2015

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Guy Caruso guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008 Examples of Special Analyses “Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005 www.eia.doe.gov