Energy Scenarios : Energy Scenarios Millennium Project 2006
The Scenario Study : The Scenario Study Client:
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation
Dar Al Mashora For Consulting Services
Phase 1
Task 1 Review relevant global scenario literature
Task 2 Conduct Global Energy Delphi
Task 3 Construct Global Energy Scenarios
Phase 2
Task 4 Identify implications of the scenarios for the oil industry in general and Kuwait in particular
Task 5 Policy Assessment of these implications
Phase 1: Review of Past Scenarios : Phase 1: Review of Past Scenarios To be included as a “most important” scenario the prior work had to have:
Global perspective
Extend into the future at least through 2025
Where possible, include a quantitative model to give rigor to the projections
Involve several scenarios that covered an interesting “space.”
Publication date within the last five years.
Top Scenarios:
Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy Data Center, WEC
World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on October 26, 2004)
International Energy Agency
International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US Department of Energy
Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 Shell Scenarios
World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, EC
Result: annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports
Comparison of Scenarios : Comparison of Scenarios
When is Hubbert’s Peak (and what follows) : When is Hubbert’s Peak (and what follows) From: Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.
Author: Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton Univ Press, October, 2001.
Phase 2: The Global Energy Delphi : Phase 2: The Global Energy Delphi Timing: December 2005- January 2006
Focus:
a survey of energy experts was conducted to obtain judgments about the timing of certain critical future energy related developments and the contribution of various energy sources to the total mix in 2020.
Two survey modes:
an on line questionnaire form and an MS Word-based form that could be completed and submitted online or by fax or mail (available in English, Russian, Portuguese, and Spanish) .
a third experimental approach: RT Delphi
The Delphi- Part 1 Timing of Future Events : The Delphi- Part 1 Timing of Future Events
The Delphi- Part 2 Scenario Elements : The Delphi- Part 2 Scenario Elements
The Delphi- Part 3 The Energy Mix : The Delphi- Part 3 The Energy Mix
The RT Delphi Experiment : The RT Delphi Experiment
Participants (Round 1) : Participants (Round 1) Sectoral Europe (57) 19% Total participants: 159 (not including about 30 RT Delphi participants) Regional Sectoral
Participants (Round 2 ) : Participants (Round 2 ) Europe (57) Regional Sectoral Total participants: 79
Consumption Forecasts : Consumption Forecasts
Round 2- Fill in the Blanks : Round 2- Fill in the Blanks Built on the results of the first round:
Extended scenario descriptions utilizing the answers of Round 1
the “fill in the blanks” questionnaire allowed the participants to extend the given scenarios by inserting their own perceptions.
how can each of the scenarios can be improved.
Example (from Scenario 2)
… The water tables have fallen dramatically in India and China over the last 20 years leaving dry wells in many locations for hundreds of miles forcing millions to flee to already congested cities were tensions explode in riots. Increasing demand for meat accelerated the industrialization of livestock production with its massive concentrations of animals and their wastes which led to the Pig Flu pandemic of 2010 killing over 25 million people. Less dramatic but also quite devastating was the slow motion march of desertification in Asia, Africa, North and South America, and the Middle East. Other backlashes from nature included __2.1________________________________________
The Four Scenarios : The Four Scenarios Scenario 1: The Skeptic (Business as Usual)
Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash
Scenario 3. Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth
Scenario 4. Political Turmoil
Business as Usual More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements : Business as Usual More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements
Environmental Backlash More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements : Environmental Backlash More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements
High Tech More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements : High Tech More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements
Political Turmoil More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements : Political Turmoil More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements
Business as Usual Major Features : Business as Usual Major Features The economy lurches, inflation flares, decisions are uninspired, short term, low risk and prove inadequate, the progress of technology is modest, and despite pronouncements to the contrary, countries of the world seem to act solely in their self-interest. Corporations value profits over all other considerations. The world, much as today, responds to selfish, low-torque engines of change.
Bad decisions, but life goes on.
The New Fire Speech
Chinese auto exports
Global inflation/ recession finally hit in about 2015
Cynicism
Global Energy Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash : Global Energy Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash Backlash from Nature
and
Backlash from Environmentalist
Environmental Backlash Key elements : Environmental Backlash Key elements India Ocean Nuclear accident galvanizes environmental movement, massive fisheries collapse, crop failures, plankton loss CO2 impact, Chernobyl effect
Env. friendly politicians elected, create G-8 GLEEM Plan
UN Eminent Scientists Group sets measures & standards
Environmental viability for life support was no longer assured (60% gone or endangered today)
Climate Change conviction – cigarette precedent
Range from Eco-terrorism to political protests
More expensive energy, food, water – depressions, recessions, stagflation
Climate change slowed, but not reversed
Environmental Migration increases yearly
Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean : Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean Source: International Nuclear Safety Center
Chernobyls triggered maliciously? : Chernobyls triggered maliciously? It is estimated that 30,000 people may die prematurely of cancer induced by radiation exposure from the release The Chernobyl accident released 100 times more radiation than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It led to the permanent evacuation of 135,000 people from an area of nearly 3,000 square kilometers. The accident contaminated 31,000 square kilometers or 12,400 square miles.
Backlash from nature : Backlash from nature Climate changes increased by tundra, ice cover melting increased natural disasters
Crop yields decrease, insect migrations, droughts
Desertification and increasing sandstorms
Floods
Falling water tables worldwide - migrations (China/India)
Beginning submergence of the Gulf Stream (Greenland fresh water), potential for colder Europe, crop losses
New diseases (Livestock concentration – Pig Flu)
India Ocean Nuclear Catastrophe accelerates nature’s backlist (fisheries chain reaction, migrations, plankton-CO2 relationship)
Backlash from Environmental Movements : Backlash from Environmental Movements New and Renewed Focus on Fossil Fuels
Global Warming Law Suits (cigarette science)
Bio-sensors, satellite monitoring system, treaties
Green Smart – network of architects and engineers
Save Gaia – eco-terrorist, anti-corporate infowar
Moderates: buying clubs, consumer unions, joint educ among human rights, religious, env. groups
Environmentalist help corporations become “greener,” governments to create standard incentives and regulations, and media for public education
Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario : Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario
G-8’s Global-Local Energy-Environment Marshal (GLEEM) Plan : G-8’s Global-Local Energy-Environment Marshal (GLEEM) Plan World Energy Organization as a transinstitution
R&D Energy-Environment Fund
World Energy Prize
Trust fund for dismantling of dangerous (Chernobyl-type) nuclear power plans and the management of nuclear waste
Meta Internet for S&T info understandable to politicians, public
Common set of government policies, standards, taxes, incentives , and “green labels”
WTO, ICC, and World Court enforcement of agreements
Post-Kyoto Protocol
Global Partnership for Development
World E-E Education (internet events, computer games, music videos)
Local E-E initiatives support from Peace Corps, VSO, UN Volunteers, and various forms of tele-volunteers.
Energy Companies hired environmentalists to help… : Energy Companies hired environmentalists to help… Create corporate roadmaps to respond the GLEEM Plan
Add alternative energy production to fossil fuel companies
Initiate Seawater Agriculture
Develop synthetic biology, e.g., photosynthesis for hydrogen
Retrofit buildings, flex-fuel cars, LC lighting, insulation
Retrofit fossil fuel plants, home heating, and cars with carbon sequestration systems
Design E-E public education, advertising (e.g., BP)
Product lines that were energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, and educationally significant
Create their own corporate environmental labels
ISO 14001 Environmental Management System
Slide30 : SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Net Present Values, Benefit-Cost Ratios and Payback Periods for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T] Economics of Commercial BIPV
Slide31 : 12 million hectares of 10% eff. PV systems could supply US total energy needs – fuels and electricity
Some additional Private business Developments : Some additional Private business Developments The Wealth step in to support the GLEEM Plan
Green Brick and GreenMap (Group Funds) investment
Seawater Agriculture
Animal protein without growing the animals
Ubiquitous computing (flexi-time/place), reduced some group in transportation
Government Policies : Government Policies Incentives move green (tax reductions, streamlining permits (wind farms, etc.))
Environmental taxes (Carbon tax US$50/tonne, road, product efficiencies 50/tone
300 of 443 Nuclear plants closed by 2020.
Flex Fuel car standard mandates
Fuel consumption standards
Energy rationing
Carbon trading
Additional Developments by 2020 : Additional Developments by 2020 Brazil and Sweden oil independent
Biofuels replaced 10% of petroleum by 2020
Coal and natural gas produce most electricity, wind, solar, and biomass is catching up, while carbon sequestration technology is beginning
Eventually environmental movement moves to support Solar Power Satellites as alternative o nuclear power for long-term electricity solution
New mix of power for vehicles sold in 2020
Round 1 Delphi Estimates : Round 1 Delphi Estimates
Slide37 : Scenario 3
High Tech Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth
Technology pushes off the limits : Technology pushes off the limits World economy reaches US$ 80 trillion
Internet 4.0 connects over half of humanity, which is growing stable at 7,5 billion people
Technological convergence accelerates
NBIC: Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno bloom
Moore’s Law survives and thrives due to quantum computing, 3D circuits and sub-atomic particles
Artificial intelligence reaches human intelligence levels, and a technological “singularity” is expected any time soon
Biological evolution, slow and erratic, is overtaken by technological evolution, fast and designed
Cyborgs and clones are becoming normal and accepted in societies, and their numbers increase faster than those of the “naturals”
Humans will never be the same, in fact, the first transhumans and posthumans have already arrived
Advanced robotics and space exploration are ready to take-off
Slide39 : Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence: NBIC Nano Bits Atoms
Ray Kurzweil (MIT): The Singularity is Near : Ray Kurzweil (MIT): The Singularity is Near www.singularity.com
Bill Gates
Limits to growth? : Limits to growth?
Slide42 : Herman Kahn: The Next 200 Years No limits to growth?
Oil costs and reserves : Oil costs and reserves
More oil costs and reserves : More oil costs and reserves
Deeper and deeper : Deeper and deeper
Journey to the Center of the Earth : Journey to the Center of the Earth JuiCE (Box)
EU-Japan-US consortium
Combined world effort
Methane exploration
Internal and continuous Earth production
Deep drilling (30 km)
Energy “waves”: “decarbonization” : Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”
Technology pushes off the limits : Technology pushes off the limits 21st century energy drivers
Technological change
New discoveries
Resource substitution
The proper energy mix
Old oil and new oil
Gas and more gas
Coal and less coal
Renewables
New energy sources
The economic problem: EROEI : The economic problem: EROEI Gasoline taxes
Carbon taxes
Fixed costs
Sugar versus oil
Market mechanisms
Supply and demand
Cost considerations
Energy substitutes
Policy incentives
Towards a Post-Petroleum World : Towards a Post-Petroleum World British Petroleum
Beyond Petroleum
The Energy “Internet” : The Energy “Internet” Buckminster Fuller
Global Energy Network Institute
GENI.org
Bioenergy and “eternal” energy : Bioenergy and “eternal” energy The cells of life
Photosynthesis
CO2 + 2 H2O + light
→ (CH2O) + O2 + H2O
From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
Craig Venter and his petroleum bacteria
Bacteria Clostridium acetobutylicum produces ethanol naturally
Bacteria Petroleum artificiali produces “gasoline”
Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia : Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia The Stone Age did not end because of lack of stones, and the Oil Age will end soon and not because of lack of oil.
Slide56 : Earth-based solar energy 6 land blocks of 3 TW are enough for humanity today
Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna : Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna
Moon Energy ≥ 20 TWe : Moon Energy ≥ 20 TWe
NASA: Space Solar Power (in stand-by) : NASA: Space Solar Power (in stand-by)
Global Energy Scenario 4: : Global Energy Scenario 4: Political Turmoil
Political Turmoil Key elements : Political Turmoil Key elements Failure of nation-states to make serious decisions about serious issues.
Aging population forces government cuts
Terror2 – Multi-weapon 3-continent attack
Organized Crime 3x total world military budgets
Increasing environmental and economic migrations (water migrations in China and India trigger ethnic and racial conflicts)
Increased conflicts over oil (Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria)
Terror Version 2.0 Multi-Weapon, Multi-Continent : Terror Version 2.0 Multi-Weapon, Multi-Continent 3-continents, multi-weapon attack: oil, airports, seaports, and cities
Three twinned dirty bombs; one twin for each continent
Major oil extraction points, refineries, supply depots, and shipping lane choke-points hit with conventional explosives within several minutes
Human bioweapons in airports
Partial alliance of Islamic and ecoteorrists with organized crime
Some Initial consequences : Some Initial consequences Gasoline quadrupled overnight, long-term oil contracts abrogated, carbon trading suspended, and airlines, banks, medical systems, and tourist industries brought to their knees
Recovery, repair hampered by lack energy for transportation
Global depression, economies turned inward, nationalism, business migrations to safer zones, protests against government failures, organized crime grows, oil & gas rationing
Oil-Related Political Flash Points : Oil-Related Political Flash Points The conflicts in Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria
The Caucasus – pipelines down, Armenians/Azerbaijan, Kurds/ Turkey undeclared wars
Northwest China – pan-Islamic, pan-Turkic breaks with China disrupt oil supplies
China-Japan conflicts over East China Sea oil fields
Canada, US, Denmark, Russia, Norway conflict over Arctic jurisdictions for oil now more accessible due to Global Warming
Nigerian Instability continues
Changes in the Persian/Arab Gulf
Other Factors Behind Political Turmoil : Other Factors Behind Political Turmoil Income gaps continued to widen making more economic refugees increasing social tensions
Environmental Backlashes in Scenario 2 compound political conflicts
AIDS orphans feeding, toughening transnational organized crime
Comparison of the Scenarios : Comparison of the Scenarios
Scenario Comparison : Scenario Comparison
Delphi Round 1 in Section 2 : Delphi Round 1 in Section 2
The International Futures Model (Business as Usual) : The International Futures Model (Business as Usual) Source: The Millennium Project based on data from the
International Futures model of the University of Denver.
Slide71 : Comparison of Scenarios
Slide72 : Comparison of Scenarios
Slide73 : Comparison of Scenarios