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Premium member Presentation Transcript Energy Scenarios: Energy Scenarios Millennium Project 2006The Scenario Study: The Scenario Study Client: Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Dar Al Mashora For Consulting Services Phase 1 Task 1 Review relevant global scenario literature Task 2 Conduct Global Energy Delphi Task 3 Construct Global Energy Scenarios Phase 2 Task 4 Identify implications of the scenarios for the oil industry in general and Kuwait in particular Task 5 Policy Assessment of these implicationsPhase 1:Review of Past Scenarios: Phase 1: Review of Past Scenarios To be included as a “most important” scenario the prior work had to have: Global perspective Extend into the future at least through 2025 Where possible, include a quantitative model to give rigor to the projections Involve several scenarios that covered an interesting “space.” Publication date within the last five years. Top Scenarios: Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy Data Center, WEC World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on October 26, 2004) International Energy Agency International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US Department of Energy Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 Shell Scenarios World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, EC Result: annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports Comparison of Scenarios: Comparison of ScenariosWhen is Hubbert’s Peak(and what follows): When is Hubbert’s Peak (and what follows) From: Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Author: Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton Univ Press, October, 2001.Phase 2:The Global Energy Delphi: Phase 2: The Global Energy Delphi Timing: December 2005- January 2006 Focus: a survey of energy experts was conducted to obtain judgments about the timing of certain critical future energy related developments and the contribution of various energy sources to the total mix in 2020. Two survey modes: an on line questionnaire form and an MS Word-based form that could be completed and submitted online or by fax or mail (available in English, Russian, Portuguese, and Spanish) . a third experimental approach: RT DelphiThe Delphi- Part 1Timing of Future Events: The Delphi- Part 1 Timing of Future EventsThe Delphi- Part 2Scenario Elements: The Delphi- Part 2 Scenario ElementsThe Delphi- Part 3The Energy Mix: The Delphi- Part 3 The Energy MixThe RT Delphi Experiment: The RT Delphi ExperimentParticipants (Round 1): Participants (Round 1) Sectoral Europe (57) 19% Total participants: 159 (not including about 30 RT Delphi participants) Regional SectoralParticipants (Round 2 ): Participants (Round 2 ) Europe (57) Regional Sectoral Total participants: 79Consumption Forecasts: Consumption Forecasts Round 2- Fill in the Blanks: Round 2- Fill in the Blanks Built on the results of the first round: Extended scenario descriptions utilizing the answers of Round 1 the “fill in the blanks” questionnaire allowed the participants to extend the given scenarios by inserting their own perceptions. how can each of the scenarios can be improved. Example (from Scenario 2) … The water tables have fallen dramatically in India and China over the last 20 years leaving dry wells in many locations for hundreds of miles forcing millions to flee to already congested cities were tensions explode in riots. Increasing demand for meat accelerated the industrialization of livestock production with its massive concentrations of animals and their wastes which led to the Pig Flu pandemic of 2010 killing over 25 million people. Less dramatic but also quite devastating was the slow motion march of desertification in Asia, Africa, North and South America, and the Middle East. Other backlashes from nature included __2.1________________________________________The Four Scenarios: The Four Scenarios Scenario 1: The Skeptic (Business as Usual) Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash Scenario 3. Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth Scenario 4. Political Turmoil Business as Usual More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: Business as Usual More than 2/3 Agreed with these statementsEnvironmental Backlash More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: Environmental Backlash More than 2/3 Agreed with these statementsHigh TechMore than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: High Tech More than 2/3 Agreed with these statementsPolitical TurmoilMore than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: Political Turmoil More than 2/3 Agreed with these statementsBusiness as UsualMajor Features: Business as Usual Major Features The economy lurches, inflation flares, decisions are uninspired, short term, low risk and prove inadequate, the progress of technology is modest, and despite pronouncements to the contrary, countries of the world seem to act solely in their self-interest. Corporations value profits over all other considerations. The world, much as today, responds to selfish, low-torque engines of change. Bad decisions, but life goes on. The New Fire Speech Chinese auto exports Global inflation/ recession finally hit in about 2015 CynicismGlobal Energy Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash: Global Energy Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash Backlash from Nature and Backlash from EnvironmentalistEnvironmental BacklashKey elements: Environmental Backlash Key elements India Ocean Nuclear accident galvanizes environmental movement, massive fisheries collapse, crop failures, plankton loss CO2 impact, Chernobyl effect Env. friendly politicians elected, create G-8 GLEEM Plan UN Eminent Scientists Group sets measures & standards Environmental viability for life support was no longer assured (60% gone or endangered today) Climate Change conviction – cigarette precedent Range from Eco-terrorism to political protests More expensive energy, food, water – depressions, recessions, stagflation Climate change slowed, but not reversed Environmental Migration increases yearlyNuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean: Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean Source: International Nuclear Safety CenterChernobyls triggered maliciously?: Chernobyls triggered maliciously? It is estimated that 30,000 people may die prematurely of cancer induced by radiation exposure from the release The Chernobyl accident released 100 times more radiation than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It led to the permanent evacuation of 135,000 people from an area of nearly 3,000 square kilometers. The accident contaminated 31,000 square kilometers or 12,400 square miles. Backlash from nature: Backlash from nature Climate changes increased by tundra, ice cover melting increased natural disasters Crop yields decrease, insect migrations, droughts Desertification and increasing sandstorms Floods Falling water tables worldwide - migrations (China/India) Beginning submergence of the Gulf Stream (Greenland fresh water), potential for colder Europe, crop losses New diseases (Livestock concentration – Pig Flu) India Ocean Nuclear Catastrophe accelerates nature’s backlist (fisheries chain reaction, migrations, plankton-CO2 relationship)Backlash from Environmental Movements: Backlash from Environmental Movements New and Renewed Focus on Fossil Fuels Global Warming Law Suits (cigarette science) Bio-sensors, satellite monitoring system, treaties Green Smart – network of architects and engineers Save Gaia – eco-terrorist, anti-corporate infowar Moderates: buying clubs, consumer unions, joint educ among human rights, religious, env. groups Environmentalist help corporations become “greener,” governments to create standard incentives and regulations, and media for public educationShell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario: Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth ScenarioG-8’s Global-Local Energy-Environment Marshal (GLEEM) Plan: G-8’s Global-Local Energy-Environment Marshal (GLEEM) Plan World Energy Organization as a transinstitution R&D Energy-Environment Fund World Energy Prize Trust fund for dismantling of dangerous (Chernobyl-type) nuclear power plans and the management of nuclear waste Meta Internet for S&T info understandable to politicians, public Common set of government policies, standards, taxes, incentives , and “green labels” WTO, ICC, and World Court enforcement of agreements Post-Kyoto Protocol Global Partnership for Development World E-E Education (internet events, computer games, music videos) Local E-E initiatives support from Peace Corps, VSO, UN Volunteers, and various forms of tele-volunteers. Energy Companies hired environmentalists to help…: Energy Companies hired environmentalists to help… Create corporate roadmaps to respond the GLEEM Plan Add alternative energy production to fossil fuel companies Initiate Seawater Agriculture Develop synthetic biology, e.g., photosynthesis for hydrogen Retrofit buildings, flex-fuel cars, LC lighting, insulation Retrofit fossil fuel plants, home heating, and cars with carbon sequestration systems Design E-E public education, advertising (e.g., BP) Product lines that were energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, and educationally significant Create their own corporate environmental labels ISO 14001 Environmental Management SystemSlide30: SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Net Present Values, Benefit-Cost Ratios and Payback Periods for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T] Economics of Commercial BIPVSlide31: 12 million hectares of 10% eff. PV systems could supply US total energy needs – fuels and electricity Some additional Private business Developments: Some additional Private business Developments The Wealth step in to support the GLEEM Plan Green Brick and GreenMap (Group Funds) investment Seawater Agriculture Animal protein without growing the animals Ubiquitous computing (flexi-time/place), reduced some group in transportation Government Policies: Government Policies Incentives move green (tax reductions, streamlining permits (wind farms, etc.)) Environmental taxes (Carbon tax US$50/tonne, road, product efficiencies 50/tone 300 of 443 Nuclear plants closed by 2020. Flex Fuel car standard mandates Fuel consumption standards Energy rationing Carbon tradingAdditional Developments by 2020: Additional Developments by 2020 Brazil and Sweden oil independent Biofuels replaced 10% of petroleum by 2020 Coal and natural gas produce most electricity, wind, solar, and biomass is catching up, while carbon sequestration technology is beginning Eventually environmental movement moves to support Solar Power Satellites as alternative o nuclear power for long-term electricity solution New mix of power for vehicles sold in 2020Round 1 Delphi Estimates: Round 1 Delphi EstimatesSlide37: Scenario 3 High Tech Technology Pushes Off the Limits to GrowthTechnology pushes off the limits: Technology pushes off the limits World economy reaches US$ 80 trillion Internet 4.0 connects over half of humanity, which is growing stable at 7,5 billion people Technological convergence accelerates NBIC: Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno bloom Moore’s Law survives and thrives due to quantum computing, 3D circuits and sub-atomic particles Artificial intelligence reaches human intelligence levels, and a technological “singularity” is expected any time soon Biological evolution, slow and erratic, is overtaken by technological evolution, fast and designed Cyborgs and clones are becoming normal and accepted in societies, and their numbers increase faster than those of the “naturals” Humans will never be the same, in fact, the first transhumans and posthumans have already arrived Advanced robotics and space exploration are ready to take-offSlide39: Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence: NBIC Nano Bits AtomsRay Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near: Ray Kurzweil (MIT): The Singularity is Near www.singularity.com Bill GatesLimits to growth?: Limits to growth? Slide42: Herman Kahn: The Next 200 Years No limits to growth?Oil costs and reserves: Oil costs and reservesMore oil costs and reserves: More oil costs and reservesDeeper and deeper: Deeper and deeperJourney to the Center of the Earth: Journey to the Center of the Earth JuiCE (Box) EU-Japan-US consortium Combined world effort Methane exploration Internal and continuous Earth production Deep drilling (30 km) Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”: Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”Technology pushes off the limits: Technology pushes off the limits 21st century energy drivers Technological change New discoveries Resource substitution The proper energy mix Old oil and new oil Gas and more gas Coal and less coal Renewables New energy sources The economic problem: EROEI: The economic problem: EROEI Gasoline taxes Carbon taxes Fixed costs Sugar versus oil Market mechanisms Supply and demand Cost considerations Energy substitutes Policy incentivesTowards a Post-Petroleum World: Towards a Post-Petroleum World British Petroleum Beyond PetroleumThe Energy “Internet”: The Energy “Internet” Buckminster Fuller Global Energy Network Institute GENI.org Bioenergy and “eternal” energy: Bioenergy and “eternal” energy The cells of life Photosynthesis CO2 + 2 H2O + light → (CH2O) + O2 + H2O From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates Craig Venter and his petroleum bacteria Bacteria Clostridium acetobutylicum produces ethanol naturally Bacteria Petroleum artificiali produces “gasoline” Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia: Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia The Stone Age did not end because of lack of stones, and the Oil Age will end soon and not because of lack of oil. Slide56: Earth-based solar energy 6 land blocks of 3 TW are enough for humanity today Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna: Sun-Moon-Beam-RectennaMoon Energy ≥ 20 TWe: Moon Energy ≥ 20 TWeNASA: Space Solar Power (in stand-by): NASA: Space Solar Power (in stand-by)Global Energy Scenario 4:: Global Energy Scenario 4: Political TurmoilPolitical Turmoil Key elements: Political Turmoil Key elements Failure of nation-states to make serious decisions about serious issues. Aging population forces government cuts Terror2 – Multi-weapon 3-continent attack Organized Crime 3x total world military budgets Increasing environmental and economic migrations (water migrations in China and India trigger ethnic and racial conflicts) Increased conflicts over oil (Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria) Terror Version 2.0 Multi-Weapon, Multi-Continent: Terror Version 2.0 Multi-Weapon, Multi-Continent 3-continents, multi-weapon attack: oil, airports, seaports, and cities Three twinned dirty bombs; one twin for each continent Major oil extraction points, refineries, supply depots, and shipping lane choke-points hit with conventional explosives within several minutes Human bioweapons in airports Partial alliance of Islamic and ecoteorrists with organized crimeSome Initial consequences: Some Initial consequences Gasoline quadrupled overnight, long-term oil contracts abrogated, carbon trading suspended, and airlines, banks, medical systems, and tourist industries brought to their knees Recovery, repair hampered by lack energy for transportation Global depression, economies turned inward, nationalism, business migrations to safer zones, protests against government failures, organized crime grows, oil & gas rationingOil-Related Political Flash Points: Oil-Related Political Flash Points The conflicts in Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria The Caucasus – pipelines down, Armenians/Azerbaijan, Kurds/ Turkey undeclared wars Northwest China – pan-Islamic, pan-Turkic breaks with China disrupt oil supplies China-Japan conflicts over East China Sea oil fields Canada, US, Denmark, Russia, Norway conflict over Arctic jurisdictions for oil now more accessible due to Global Warming Nigerian Instability continues Changes in the Persian/Arab GulfOther Factors Behind Political Turmoil: Other Factors Behind Political Turmoil Income gaps continued to widen making more economic refugees increasing social tensions Environmental Backlashes in Scenario 2 compound political conflicts AIDS orphans feeding, toughening transnational organized crimeComparison of the Scenarios: Comparison of the ScenariosScenario Comparison: Scenario ComparisonDelphi Round 1 in Section 2: Delphi Round 1 in Section 2The International Futures Model(Business as Usual): The International Futures Model (Business as Usual) Source: The Millennium Project based on data from the International Futures model of the University of Denver. Slide71: Comparison of ScenariosSlide72: Comparison of ScenariosSlide73: Comparison of Scenarios You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.