SvrWxWrkshp July 2005 Waters

Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service : 

Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service Ken Waters Regional Scientist Pacific Region Headquarters National Weather Service, Honolulu HI July 13, 2005 Silver Spring, MD

Polygon Team: 

Polygon Team Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to polygon-based warnings TEAM MEMBERS: Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator) Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SC Pete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FL Jeff Lorens, WRH Brent McAloney, OCWWS Doug Young, OCWWS Noreen Schwein, CRH Joe Shaffer, SPC Rich Okulski, OAA Ken Waters, PRH Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issue Mar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD Chiefs Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning team June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Polygon Team Chartered Aug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team Meeting Sep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team Launched Jan. 2005: AMS Presentation Mar. 2005: Prototype Test Started Sep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype Test

County vs. Polygon: 

County vs. Polygon Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs.

Polygon Advantages: 

Polygon Eliminates Area False Alarmed Polygon Advantages

Prototype Test: 

Prototype Test

Polygon Team Challenges: 

Polygon Team Challenges Software Issues Workload Concerns Verification Dissemination

Jackson MS Apr 5-7“Trial by fire”: 

Jackson MS Apr 5-7 “Trial by fire”

Example: FFW issued July 10th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis): 

Example: FFW issued July 10th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) 10 counties warned in west central Alabama---results in 25 vertices due to Warngen constraining boundaries to political county boundaries!

Example: FFW issued July 10th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis): 

Example: FFW issued July 10th, 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis) Using the polygon method reduces the definition to only 5 vertices, covers largely the same constituency, and allows the forecaster much more flexibility to warn for the area the hazard is expected---rather than for county boundaries.

Slide10: 

Another Example---Warngen Simplifying Polygon to County Boundary Tornado warning issued for Dent Co. MO What happens if the tornado crosses like….

Offices Not Watching Size of Pathcast in Warngen: 

Offices Not Watching Size of Pathcast in Warngen

Another interesting case study,May 30, 2004: 

Another interesting case study, May 30, 2004 30/2314Z: WFO St. Louis forecaster issued tornado warning for Washington Co. IL, conforming the polygon to “more or less” the shape of the county 30/2319Z: WFO Paducah issued tornado warning for neighboring Perry Co. IL 30/2330Z: Confirmed tornado touchdown in Dubois, Washington County IL The irony of all this?: Using polygons as issued by the WFO’s, this event was unwarned! Using legacy county verification, WFO St. Louis warned for the event.

Slide13: 

Now that I’ve got your attention….. Let’s talk some about GIS and how it can relate to the National Weather Service…….

What is a GIS?: 

What is a GIS? Geographic Information System DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer hardware, software, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of geographically referenced information

GIS Data: 

GIS Data Collection of: Points Surface observations Lines Hurricane tracks Tornado trajectories Polygons Short-fuse warnings (TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW) Watches (SPC Outline) Other watches/warnings using preexisting polygons such as county outlines 3-dimensional objects Volumetric river basins

GIS Data Formats: 

GIS Data Formats Most commonly used standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry. Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three file components which describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data attributes that make up each shape

GIS Software: 

GIS Software Desktop ESRI ArcGIS ESRI ArcView MapDesk Public Domain: GRASS Server ESRI ArcIMS ESRI ArcGIS Server Public Domain: UMinn Mapserver Non-GIS Software AWIPS (uses shapefiles)

NWS Data: 

NWS Data Uses formats not familiar to GIS users: WMO GRIB1 & 2 NDFD Grids NCEP Models WMO Binary Universal Form for the Representation (BUFR) of meteorological data Soundings etc. Level II & Level III radar Unique binary format in radial format around a single station ALL are already georeferenced!

Convergence: 

Convergence Looking for ways to merge hydrometeorologic data with GIS Convert NWS data sets into georeferenced, GIS-friendly formats Disseminate NWS data using GIS structure such as Internet Mapping Systems

One Example…: 

One Example… Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data files

Slide21: 

Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid-2003. Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and freeware software tools Interesting patterns result, especially when the warning sets are shown over time…

Step 1: Capture the polygon points: 

Step 1: Capture the polygon points Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term warnings: TOR – tornado warnings SVR – severe thunderstorm warnings FFW – flash flood warnings SMW – special marine warnings

Step 2: Parse the warning text: 

Step 2: Parse the warning text Extract all the needed information: Issue Time UGC Expiration Time VTEC line ….and….of course… …the polygon vertices

Step 3: At scheduled intervals update the “flat file” database: 

Step 3: At scheduled intervals update the “flat file” database Using only open source (“freeware”) software Code written in Perl Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format “gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scripts Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as well

Step 4: Convert “gen” format into standard shapefile format: 

Step 4: Convert “gen” format into standard shapefile format

Slide26: 

The long-term database can then be used in a variety of ways to provide post-analysis and to look for trends (both weather-related as well as policy-related) Examples: Area of polygon (warned areas) Verification studies (e.g. compare LSR with warnings Provide summaries of storm seasons

Examples – Tornado Warnings 2004: 

Examples – Tornado Warnings 2004

Examples – Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004: 

Examples – Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004

Examples – Flash Flood Warnings in 2004: 

Examples – Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Special Marine Warnings: 

Special Marine Warnings

Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles: 

Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles TORNADO REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005 Note the remarkable paucity of confirmed tornado reports for 2005!

…in contrast to….: 

…in contrast to…. One remarkable day, May 30th 2004 when severe weather broke out from Texas to Iowa to the Carolinas

GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports: 

GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports

Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles: 

Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles HAIL REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005

Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles: 

Converting LSR Data into GIS Shapefiles WIND REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005

Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004: 

Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004

Flash Flood Warningsthe most “county-based” of all four short-fuse warning types: 

Flash Flood Warnings the most “county-based” of all four short-fuse warning types

Applications For Viewing Polygon Warnings: 

Applications For Viewing Polygon Warnings CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/ Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html Iowa Mesonet: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml New NWS RIDGE Site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/RIDGE

Busy Day….! http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/: 

Busy Day….! http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

ArcIMS Map Servicehttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html: 

ArcIMS Map Service http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

Includes LSR data from SPC: 

Includes LSR data from SPC

Texas A&M Mesonet Sitehttp://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/: 

Texas A&M Mesonet Site http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/

Iowa Environmental Mesonethttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml: 

Iowa Environmental Mesonet http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH server): 

New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH server) Uses web technology to “simulate” an Internet map server Allows several different radar products (including SRM) on top of hillshaded topography, roads, counties, rivers Includes ability to animate and zoom …and….an overlay of the active warnings in effect at the time of the radar image

Where do we go from here…..?: 

Where do we go from here…..?

New NOAA Radio Concept: 

New NOAA Radio Concept Warning issued for Okmulgee and McIntosh Counties. New NWR’s use latitude/longitude (or city) rather than county/SAME code. Residents in Checotah will not be alerted but residents in Stidham are, even though both are in McIntosh County. GPS-enabled cell phones/cars travelling on I-40 within polygon would be alerted also.

Where do we go from here…..?: 

Where do we go from here…..?

Private Sector Opportunities: 

Private Sector Opportunities Why not work WITH private sector. Some private sector companies are already strongly endorsing the polygon warning methods

Why GIS….?: 

Why GIS….? Compatibility with many other public, private, and government agencies that already use GIS data for their work and analysis GIS has great analysis capabilities…able to do “what if” analysis and look for trends Using polygon warnings we can provide better service by highlighting where the real threat is without worrying about geopolitical boundaries 4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!

Questions?: 

Questions? My Website: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gis Ken Waters Regional Scientist NWS Pacific Region Honolulu, Hawaii Ken.waters@noaa.gov (808) 532-6413