mgmnt orientation ver6

Orientation : Orientation Storm-Based Warnings A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers by Warning Decision Training Branch


Here is the Outline of the Orientation : Here is the Outline of the Orientation Section 1: Rationale of SBW Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 4: Timelines


Section 1: Rationale of SBWs : County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology Section 1: Rationale of SBWs Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned


A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead Time : A Recent Example of SBW with Greater Precision and Lead Time Graphics provided by Ken Waters (PRH) 71% Reduction ! Storm-Based Warning for Enterprise, AL Tornado March 1, 2007


An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area : An Extreme Example of Falsely Alarmed Area Look at the size of the SVR in southern CA SBW will significantly reduce size of warned area


Delineation Improves FFWs : Delineation Improves FFWs


Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings : Graphic Dissemination of Storm-Based Warnings


Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases : Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM Cow) http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/


What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs? : What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs? Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System) Public can receive warning info on a variety of digital devices Computers Phones PDAs TV Satellite Radio


SBW Testing Already Underway : SBW Testing Already Underway 23 Offices tested SBW ‘05 Little change in POD FAR 10% lower


What’s New with the SBW Product? : What’s New with the SBW Product? Area hatched is described by encoded polygon Direction of Motion added


Storm-Based Warning Challenges : Legacy Dissemination Technology is County Based TV NOAA Weather Radio EAS Activation (FCC) Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based) Multiple Warnings in One County Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Verbally VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs Storm-Based Warning Challenges


Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.) : How to convey uncertainties in Polygons for storm threat evolutions Deviant movement in supercells Pulse storms Flash flooding Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)


Challenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area Boundaries : Challenges for SB Warnings County Warning Area Boundaries


Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures : Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) Tornado Warning Performance Goals


Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training : Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training


Who Should Take the Training? : Who Should Take the Training? Intended Audience NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather Warning Responsibility Pre-requisites DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe Tracks) Deliverables 2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training ) Printed materials with DVD


What are the Learning Activities? : What are the Learning Activities? + Online Interactive Modules WES Job Sheets


Training Content Details : Training Content Details Using Polygons to identify threat areas for multiple storm situations Isolated and multiple SBW TORs in close proximity SBW TORs in lines Flash flood SBWs (KS Turnpike Event)


Training Content Details (cont.) : Training Content Details (cont.) Polygon issues CWA boundaries Gaps in warnings WarnGen limits


What are Job Sheets? : What are Job Sheets? Effective learning applications using mini-WES cases


Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities : Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Traditional Assumption for Performance Improvement Training → Learning → Transfer = Performance


A New Focus on Performance: : A New Focus on Performance: Combination of → Performance → Results Interventions


What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? : What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? Supports Reported


What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed? : What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed? Ensure 100% training completion for every office Work with User Community to prepare for Service Change Support improved storm verification procedures Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES)


Section 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule : Section 4: Timelines Storm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule F M A M J J A S O N D Forecasters Complete SBW Training Training Development 2007 Oct. 1 Service Change Pilot test of training package OB 8.1 Deploy New LMS released OB 8.1 Beta


Who Can Help? : Who Can Help? WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.) 405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis) sbwhelp@wdtb.noaa.gov WDTB help on SBW training OCWWS SBW Page wdtb.noaa.gov


Summary and Questions : Summary and Questions SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance But… Success Depends on All of Us!