Slide1: THE INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI OF 2004 - MYANMAR EXPERIENCES TUN LWIN DEPUTY DIRECTOR-GENERAL Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Ministry of Transport Yangon, Myanmar Bangkok, Thailand June,2005


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Slide4: Areas of concern Taninthayi Coast Ayeyarwady Delta Rakhine coast 3


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Slide7: Survey Team Geology Survey of Japan, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Yangon Technological University, Myanmar Engineering Society & Myanmar Geosciences Society 5 7


Slide8: Lost and Damage in Myanmar by Tsunami 26 Dec 2004 8


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Slide10: ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHTS DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE FOR INCOMING TSUNAMI WAVES FOR THE DELTAIC COAST ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHT FOR MYANMAR COASTAL AREAS BY USING THE STORM SURGE HEIGHT PREDICTION MODEL FOR AN APPROACHING TSUNAMI WAVE WITH A SPEED OF 500 Km/Hr COULD GENERATE A TSUNAMI WAVE OF HEIGHT 29 METRES FOR THE DELTAIC AREA The tsunami height of about 3 metres was observed in Myanmar coast during the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004. The corresponding speed of propagation of the tsunami wave appraching Myanmar coast was calculated as 160 km/hr. 10 ASSESSMENT


Slide11: During the last episode of Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004, the arrival time of tsunami wave towards Myanmar was about 3 hours. Since the epicentre is at a distance of about 1000 km away, the average speed of approaching tsunami waves towards Myanmar coast is 330 km/hr. By using the storm surge model, the calculated speed of propagation towards the coast is 160 km/hr. The reduction in tsunami wave speed on entering the coastal shelf could be regarded as the combined effect of shallow water of Myanmar and the morphology of the Andaman sea. Whatever. The fact is that there was a minimal damage in Myanmar due to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami comparing to our neighbouring countries. 11 ASSESSMENT


Slide12: GIS Pictures were taken by European Satellite on 4 January 2005. 12 Source: EURIMAGE ASSESSMENT


Slide13: Village Undamaged Beach Prawn/Fish Ponds Croplands GIS Pictures were taken by European Satellite on 4 January 2005. 13 Source: EURIMAGE


Slide14: GIS Pictures were taken by European Satellite on 4 January 2005. 14 Source: EURIMAGE


Slide15: GIS Pictures were taken by European Satellite on 4 January 2005. 15 Source: EURIMAGE


Slide16: -- Existence of Seismic Gap Direction of the waves Topographic feature of seabed level Unspoiled mangroove forests Existence of hundreds of uninhabited islands in Myeik Archipelago. ********** Myanmar was fortunate to sustain lower casualties and damages than Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. For the Reasons of - 16 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Seismic gap identified in the ocean near Coco Islands.The gap was identified in 2000 by Myanmar, French and Thai scientists in the "Geodynamics of India-Asia Collision" (GIAC) Project".Medium to large earthquakes seldom occur in the area.No "active subduction"in the area.: Seismic gap identified in the ocean near Coco Islands. The gap was identified in 2000 by Myanmar, French and Thai scientists in the "Geodynamics of India-Asia Collision" (GIAC) Project". Medium to large earthquakes seldom occur in the area. No "active subduction" in the area. Seismicity of Myanmar and surrounding Region Geological factor of Seismic gap 17 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide18: Seismic Gap Formation of Seismic Gap north of Coco Island Morphology of the Andaman Sea 18 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide19: 26 December 2004 Sumatra Earthquakes and Tsunamis Tsunamis moved strongly towards the east and west but weakly to the north. Coastal areas in Myanmar are not situated perpendicular to direction of waves but parallel. Hundreds of uninhabited islands in Myeik Archipelago soften impact of tsunamis. India Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Indonesia Malaysia 19 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide20: WAVES MOVED MAINLY IN EAST AND WEAT DIRECTIONS 20 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide21: 500 mg/l As of 03 May 2002 Long distance shoaling outwards about 15~20 miles 21 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide22: Geomorphology of the Ayeyarwady shelf Gulf of Martaban is smooth and covered with modern sediments Outer shelf is uneven and characterized by 2-20 m topographic features (pinnacles, valleys, buried channels and scarps) A 120 km wide graben is present between Sagaing Fault and Myeik Torries. Martaban Canyon lies within the graben Mottama 20 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide24: Indian Ocean: Seismicity Historical record showed northern limit of martime strong earthqake centres were limited in the north up to only Coco Island. 21


Indian Ocean: Historical Tsunamis: There were eight incidents of maritime earthquakes in the Indian Ocean in record. The years were 1524, 1762, 1819, 1847, 1881, 1941, 1945 and 1977. Due to lack of good records on Tsunami events and tolls of death in the Indian Ocean, no Tsunami Early Warning System was established till the deadliest Tsunami of the history occurred in December, 2004. Indian Ocean: Historical Tsunamis 22 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


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Slide27: THE HISTORICAL RECORD REVEALS THAT DEADLIEST INTENSE TSUNAMIS ARE RARE IN MYANMAR AND HER NEIGHBOURING BAY OF BENGAL AREA HISTORICAL RECORDS OF TSUNAMI IN THE INDIAN OCEAN 24 1762 Severe Earthquake Generated tsunami which hit Myanmar Town of Sittwe MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide28: Indian Ocean: Historical Tsunamis 1762 Severe Earthquake hit Myanmar Town of Sittwe 25 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide29: TSNAMI RISK ATLAS OF THE WORLD According to the Tsunami Risk Atlas, most the coastal areas of Myanmar are within the risk zone. A return period of 500 years is needed for a tsunami height of 8 years 26 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide30: List of Strong earthquakes in Myanmar 27


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Slide32: Stastical Record of earthquake events in Myanmar 29 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide33: Stastitical Record of Annual Earthquake events in Myanmar (Frequency) Stastitical Record of Annual Earthquake events in Myanmar (Intensity) 30 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide34: 31 ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHTS DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE FOR INCOMING TSUNAMI WAVES FOR THE DELTAIC COAST ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHT FOR MYANMAR COASTAL AREAS BY USING THE STORM SURGE HEIGHT PREDICTION MODEL FOR AN APPROACHING TSUNAMI WAVE WITH A SPEED OF 500 Km/Hr COULD GENERATE A TSUNAMI WAVE OF HEIGHT 29 METRES FOR THE DELTAIC AREA 500 km/hr 29 metres MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide35: ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHT FOR MYANMAR COASTAL AREAS BY USING THE STORM SURGE HEIGHT PREDICTION MODEL FOR AN APPROACHING TSUNAMI WAVE WITH A SPEED OF 500 Km/Hr COULD GENERATE A TSUNAMI WAVE OF HEIGHT 17 METRES FOR THE RAKHINE AREA ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHTS DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF PROPAGATION OF THE WAVES FOR INCOMING TSUNAMI WAVES FOR THE RAKHINE COAST 500 km/hr 17 metres 32 MYANMAR PERSPECTIVES


Slide37: JICA(1984)- two sets of solar powered visual velocity type (short period seismograph) ( Sittwe - 1984 and Dawei - 1985 ) UNESCO(1995) – k2 digitized seismographs, manufactured in USA. ( Yangon - 1995 ) WSSI/OYO - 10 sets of Strong Motion Accelerographs (ETNA-SI (MOC-02) 3 channel, High Dynamic Range) ( Two networks – 2001- 2002 ) PRC (YSB) - two sets of digitized seismographs ( Yangon and Mandalay - 2003 ) DMH Existing Seismographs 33


Slide38: Seismological Station Locations Mandalay Yangon Sittwe Dawei 34 Earthquake Recording Equipments - Electromagnetic Seismographs - Japanese Katsujima Short period and long period Seismographs - K-2 Digitized Seismograph - Strong Motion Accelerographs - Very broad band Digitized Seismographs


Slide39: SEISMIC ZONE MAP OF MYANMAR 35


Slide40: Ø Radio to general public Ø Television do Telephone to local authority Fax / Email do Website: ww.dmh.gov.mm (Dissemination by radio is effective only when service is available) Existing Means of Warning Dissemination 36


Slide41: USGS v United State of Geological Survey WSSI v World Seismic Safety Initiative Sources of Earthquake Information ( In future, also from Regional Tsunami Warning Center ? ) 37


NATIONAL C0MMITTE ON DISASTER PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT(reformed in January 2005): NATIONAL C0MMITTE ON DISASTER PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT (reformed in January 2005) Prime Minister Chairman Minister (SWRR) Vice-Chairman State/Division P.D.C .Chairman Member Ministers Concerned (16 ministries) Member Mayor (YGN and MDY) Member Deputy Minister for Secretary Home Affairs Deputy Minister for Joint Secretary Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement 38


Central Committee and 10 Sub-Committee: Disaster Prevention Management Central Working Committee - Sub-committee for information and Public Education - Sub-committee for Establishing, Emergency Communication System. - Sub-committee for Search and Rescue. - Sub-committee for Emergency Assistance. - Sub-committee for Assessment of Losses. Central Committee and 10 Sub-Committee 39


Slide44: Sub-committee for Transport and Clearing of Ways Sub-committee for Mitigation and shelter Sub-committee for Health Sub-committee for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Sub-committee for Security Sub-committee continued 40


Formation of Working Committee: Central Working Committee for Disaster Prevention Management. State/Divisional Level-Working Committee. District Level-Working Committee. Township Level-working Committee. Wards and village Tracks Working Committee. Formation of Working Committee 41


Organizations involved in earthquake and tsunami disaster study group: Organizations involved in earthquake and tsunami disaster study group 42


Slide47: Tide gauge stations Tide records needed from the northeastern coast Bay of Bengal 43


Timeline: Timeline Source: UNESCO/IOC 44


Technical implementation & CB: Technical implementation & CB National activities Capacity assessment Support national awareness Regional activities Core sea level gauges Interim system Training courses Awareness pamphlets DART buoy deployment Source: UNESCO/IOC 45


National Assessments: National Assessments to inform national stakeholders on the requirements (organizational, infrastructure and human resources) for the establishment and operation of a tsunami warning and mitigation system; to assess the available resources (organization, infrastructure and human resources); to identify capacity building needs . 46


Assessment methodology of IOC: Assessment methodology of IOC Pre-mission information gathering (questionnaires); 3-day expert mission (IOC, WMO, ISDR,…) Full report Assistance (as required) in developing CB strategy for national TWS for submission to national government and (as required) donor (This mission had already visited Myanmar In Early June of 2005) 47


Results of WMO Preliminary Questionnaire - Myanmar: Results of WMO Preliminary Questionnaire - Myanmar Source: WMO 48


Slide54: 1. to establish a TWS system components end-to-end system 2. to assess national tsunami risk (Hazard assessment) 3. to establish national / regional warning center against local and regional tsunamis (Warning guidance) 4. to promote education/preparedness and risk reduction against tsunami hazard (Mitigation and Public Awareness) National and Regional Capacity Comprehensive Needs: 49 Source: WMO


Status of the WMO/GTS Expert Missions: Status of the WMO/GTS Expert Missions WMO/GTS expert missions will be carried out separately, by a team of two experts: One expert from the associated Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH) One expert taking account of current technical cooperation links between National Meteorological Services (NMSs). Plans for country visits are being finalized and will be undertaken Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar : Experts from India/ IMD (RTH) + Japan/JMA, including China/CMA expert to Myanmar (early July) . 50 Source: WMO


Slide56: Request for Support to Establish National Tsunami Warning Centre, Myanmar


Slide57: Training : - First Year Next year Job-trainings (Seismology-tsunami) 4 2 Diplomas (Seismology) 2 1 Degree courses (seismology) 2 1 Engineering seismology 1 1 Disaster Management Course 10 Training Aid (Computer) 30 Computer Server 2 Maintenance : - First course Next course Job-trainings for seismograph 3 2 Job-trainings GTS upgrading 3 2 Job-trainings for tide gauge 3 2 Public awareness trainings : - Training of trainers to develop tsunami 20 awareness in the target areas Rescue Programme : Road Map 500 villages Risk Assessment 500 Myanmar Requirement 51


Slide58: Œ  Ž   ‘ ’ “ Yangon Sittwe Dawei Pathein Mandalay Pyay Taunggyi Myitkyina Proposed Broad-band Seismograph Stations List by Priority Broad Band Seismograph Station list by Priority 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 52 Myanmar Requirement


Slide59: Proposed Tidal Gauges Kyaukpyu Laputta Kawthoung Œ  Ž 53 Myanmar Requirement


Slide60: Maungdaw Sittwe Kyaukpyu Manaung Thandwe Gwa Chaungthar Pathein Pyinkayine Phyarpon Yangon Mawlamyine Kyaikkami Coco Island Yay Dawei Pulaw Myeik Boakpyin Kawthoung Proposed S.S.B stations SSB will be installed in Township Disaster Committee Office SSB will be installed in DMH stations 54 Myanmar Requirement


Slide61: Proposed FM Radio Transmitter network Main FM station Sub-stations 55 Myanmar Requirement


Slide62: Coastal and Island communities of Myanmar (including tourists & visitors) with an ultimate goal to save life and property Partners: Prime Minister Office Ministry of Social Welfare Ministry of Information Myanma Police Force Department of Fire Brigade Post and Telecommunication Department Department of Health Myanma Port Authority Myanmar Engineering Society International Organizations (IOC, WMO, JMA, CEA, ADPC, ADRC, GLOSS, GOOS, WSSI, YSB,ESCAP) Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System for Myanmar 56 Myanmar Requirement


Slide63: Aim: Set up an operational 24-hour Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System hosted within the Ministry of Transport Support Pledged by: Department of Meteorology and Hydrology will avail part of her current facilities and staff for the Project. Support sought for: Upgrading and expansion of the current communication network and sea level observing network, Development of a seismic network and Capacity building. Project Proposal (Objectives) 57 Myanmar Requirement


Slide64: Three-year programme: To develop a system that will be based on and end-to-end principle – from data collection to the provision of services and issuing of warnings. Based on existing infrastructure and resources to develop Five major components: - Monitoring network – seismic and sea level - Data transmission and receiving system for evaluation and sharing - Data processing system for acquiring and evaluation - Dissemination of warnings to target communities - Training of trainers to develop tsunami awareness in the target areas The system will be integrated into the existing national disaster management system, and will also contribute to the IOTWS. Close links with International organizations such as IOC, GLOSS, GOOS, WMO, WSSI, ADPC, ADRC, JMA, YSB, ESCAP, etc. is also envisaged. Overview 58


Slide66: Natural Disasters in Myanmar Cyclones 2. Floods 3. Earthquakes 4. Fire The severest natural disaster in Myanmar is the earthquake (ESCAP REPORT) Tsunami Disaster ? ? - the first experience in 2004 59


Slide67: LIST OF NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES RECORDED IN MYANMAR ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKES FOR THE PERIOD FROM 1917 TO 2004 (EVENTS OF STRONG AND AVERAGE EARTHQUAKES) Observations recorded at Kaba-Aye Seismological station and at USGS shows that annual frequency of earthquakes are increased annually in Myanmar since 1963 More than 200 earthquakes incidents were recorded in 2004 comparing to 22 of annual average 60 1963


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Slide69: Subduction or collision Plate Boundary Active Fault GSF : Great Sumatran Fault WAF : West Andaman Fault M-U-T FZ : Model-Uthai-Thani Fault Zone RRF : Red River Fault Isobath of Benioff-Wadati Zone Volcano or Voicanic Rocks Velocity of Plate Movement The area to be studied as the EQ potential persistence Aftershock Area of the Dec. 26 EQ Coco Islands Legend 62


Slide70: Earthquake potential has increased. 63


Slide71: MYANMAR HAS A LONG COASTLINE OF ABOUT 2400 km LONG, WHICH COVERS ALMOST ALL EAST COAST OF BAY OF BENGAL - THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO SEA LEVEL OBSERVING STATIONS ALONG MYANMAR COAST AT PRESENT - MYANMAR IS SITUATING RIGHT ON THE VERY ACTIVE FAULTLINE SO CALLED SAGAING FAULT. (THE TOTAL NUMBER IF EARTHQUAKE IN 2004 HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 220 COMPARING TO LONG-TERM ANNUAL AVERAGE OF 22) MYANMAR COASTLINE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FAULTLINE, WHICH LEAVES MYANMAR VERY EXYREMELY LEAD TIME FOR TEW. - SOME LEADING SEISMOLOGICAL EXPERTS HAVE PERSPECTIVES THAT THE MARITIME EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL IN MYANMAR WATERS IS INCREASING AFTER THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE. (HOPEFULLY THEY ARE WRONG - TO MAKE THINGS WORSEN, OUT OF THEIR THREE PERSPECTIVES TWO WERE ALREADY PROVED CORRECT.


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Proposed Action Plan to ESCAP for aFully Operational for TEWS in NMHS: Proposed Action Plan to ESCAP for a Fully Operational for TEWS in NMHS Step 1 – Multidisciplinary workshop Step 2 – Operational arrangements for interim TEWS Step 3 - Roving expert visits Step 4 - Implementation of the projects for upgrading the GTS and GIS (Hazard Mapping) capability of the NMHS Step 5 - Training Seminar Step 6 - Operational tests Step 7 - Workshop to Review the outcome to the project 65


Slide74: TO SAVE the people the resources the generations against disasters LET’S WORK TOGETHER Thank you for your kind attention