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The Science Isn’t Settled- The Limitations of Global Climate Models: 

The Science Isn’t Settled- The Limitations of Global Climate Models Timothy F. Ball, Ph.D. http://www.nrsp.com/people-timothy-ball.html March 21, 2007

General Circulation Models (GCMs): 

General Circulation Models (GCMs) All forecasts of future climate are based on these models.

What are they?: 

What are they? Mathematical constructs with formulae representing atmospheric mechanisms They attempt to predict future climate conditions based on a set of assumptions. The IPCC models extend the climate information to forecasts about future population, energy use, technological development etc. Richard Lindzen called these economic models children's games. This presentation only looks at the climate models.

Slide4: 

Diagram of computer climate model. What data is used to create the model? Limited surface data, virtually nothing above the surface. Smoking Gun?

Computer Inadequacies: 

Computer Inadequacies Caspar Ammann said that GCMs (General Circulation Models) took about 1 day of machine time to cover 25 years. On this basis, it is obviously impossible to model the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (say the last 2 million years) using a GCM as this would take about 219 years of computer time. Source: McIntyre, Climateaudit, 2005

Extremely Cloudy Crystal Ball: 

Extremely Cloudy Crystal Ball Oversimplify poorly understood climate processes. Precipitation and transport of energy. Simply ignore others: Milankovitch Effect. Different models yield very different results. The same models produce very different results. Inability to hindsight forecast…models can’t match observations Wrong on every forecast to date.

Slide8: 

Source: Environment Canada. This shows that for 90% of Canada the forecast accuracy was less than chance. Computer models are based on laws of physics yet they are not accurate beyond 10 days yet policy is based on 50 and 100 year predictions.

Slide9: 

Surface weather stations: Note concentration in US and western Europe. Vast areas of the world with no coverage. Ocean 70% of surface.

Data: 

Data “Deficiencies in the accuracy, quality and continuity of the records place SERIOUS limitations on the confidence that can be placed in the research results.” US National Research Council Report:, February 3, 1999 “It’s very clear we do not have a climate observing system…This may come as a shock to many people who assume that we do know adequately what’s going on with the climate but we don’t.” Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric research Boulder, CO.

The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C(33%) since the late 19th century. This is a 66% error factor.Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), page 26: 

The global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C(33%) since the late 19th century. This is a 66% error factor. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), page 26

Disclosure: 

Disclosure P.D. Jones refuses to disclose how he achieved the number. "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it." (Jones’ reply to Warwick Hughes, 21. February 2005; confirmed by Jones when asked by Von Storch)

Slide13: 

Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) P.D.Jones Claim an accurate record for the last 130 years, but note there are less than 1000 stations with 100 years of record. We have less stations now than in 1960.

Disclosure: 

Disclosure P.D. Jones refuses to disclose how he achieved the number. "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it." (Jones’ reply to Warwick Hughes, 21. February 2005; confirmed by Jones when asked by Von Storch)

Solar variability is the Major Factor in climate change: 

Solar variability is the Major Factor in climate change The sun’s energy at the earth is changed in three ways Variation in Electromagnetic Radiation (Heat/Light) Sun/Earth Relationships (Orbit. Tilt, Precession) Variation in Corpuscular Radiation (Solar Wind )

Slide17: 

Collectively known as the Milankovitch Effect

Slide18: 

The Milankovitch Effect changes to energy received at the earth Tilt Orbit Precession Of Equinox

Antarctic ice core records showing temperature and CO2 changes for last 420,000 thousand years. : 

Antarctic ice core records showing temperature and CO2 changes for last 420,000 thousand years.

Slide20: 

Source: Wei-Hock Soon, 2004 Sunspot records begin with Galileo in 1610 That is cycle 1. We are currently entering cycle 23 Basically, when Sunspot number is low the earth is cold, when it is high the earth is warm.

Slide22: 

The Northern Hemisphere land temperatures are plotted with the solar cycle length (Friss-Christensen and Lassen; 1991).

Slide23: 

The globally averaged sea surface temperatures are plotted with the sunspot numbers (Reid; 1999). Both sunspot number and solar cycle length are proxies for the amount of solar energy that Earth receives. The similarity of these curves is evidence that the sun has influenced the climate of the last 150 years.

Hypothesis/ Assumptions: 

Hypothesis/ Assumptions CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps heat Atmospheric CO2 would increase from human activity Because of the increase of CO2 global warming would occur Temperature would continue to rise as long as humans continued to add CO2 Pre-industrial level was 280 ppm Instant increase Atmospheric CO2 would double

Slide25: 

Source; F.Singer, 2003 Most people are unaware water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas

Slide29: 

Basic Air Masses - Northern Hemisphere

Slide30: 

Basic Patterns of Rossby Waves Zonal Flow Meridional Flow

The Precautionary Principle: 

The Precautionary Principle But what if there is a problem? Shouldn’t we act just in case?

Slide32: 

Russian plot of sunspot cycles with superimposed longer trend. Dalton Minimum

“Get Rid of the MWP”: 

“Get Rid of the MWP” D. Deming, Science 1995 “With the publication of the article in Science [in 1995], I gained significant credibility in the community of scientists working on climate change. They thought I was one of them, someone who would pervert science in the service of social and political causes. So one of them let his guard down. A major person working in the area of climate change and global warming sent me an astonishing email that said Source: Presentation by S McIntyre At Conference Stockholm Sweden, September 9 2006 “ We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.”

Warmer than today?: 

Warmer than today? Holocene Optimum - 9000 to 4000 BP Medieval Warm Period - 900 to 1200 AD. 1930s

Tolstoi: 

Tolstoi "I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives."

Summary of Models Presentation: 

Summary of Models Presentation Climate changes significantly all the time and current changes are well within natural variability. The models are built on a completely inadequate database. Carbon dioxide is not the cause of global warming or climate change, yet it is the key element forced in model simulations. The major causes of change now and in the past are changes in the Sun. Two of the major mechanisms are not included - changing sun/earth relationships and changing solar activity manifest in sunspots. We lack knowledge of major atmospheric, ocean and deep space mechanisms.

Summary of Models Presentation: 

Summary of Models Presentation All predictions of future climate are based on computer models. All previous model predictions have been incorrect. All models are based on the laws of physics but are unable to forecast with any acceptable of accuracy beyond 10 days. All previous predictions have seen a steady decrease in the amount of temperature increase forecast. The models are unable to recreate past known conditions (Known as hindsight forecasting.) They are unable to reproduce other than a very large scale crude grid. Features such as thunderstorms are too small for the resolution. The models fail to meet scientific rigor.

Summary of Models Presentation: 

Summary of Models Presentation Models should not be the basis of any policy let alone global energy and economic policies. H L Menken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule."

Sources/References: 

Sources/References The Science Isn’t Settled- The Limitations of Global Climate Models K. Green, T. Ball, S. Shroeder, June 2004, Fraser Institute http://www.fraserinstitute.ca/environment/index.asp?snav=en Climate Change: Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2 Statement of Prof. Zbigniew Jaworowski, Chairman, Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection Warsaw, Poland Hearing before the US Senate Committee on Commerce,Science, and Transportation, March 19, 2004 http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen5/JawoCO2-Eng.html 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas by Chemical Methods Ernst-Georg Beck, Energy and Environment, Volume 18, No. 2 2007 NEED LINK TO PAPER