SamePlayDifferentAct ors

Download
Share  Add to  Flag Embed
Uploaded from authorPOINTLite
Views:
 
Category: Education
     
 
License:   All Rights Reserved

Presentation Description

No description available.

Comments

Presentation Transcript

Same Play, Different Actors December 12, 2005: 

Same Play, Different Actors December 12, 2005 Bill Laggner Kevin Duffy Bearing Asset Management, LLC

Same Play, Different Actors: 

Same Play, Different Actors Source: Bearing Asset Management art department

“The only permanent truth in finance is that people will get bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.” - James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: 

“The only permanent truth in finance is that people will get bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.” - James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Same Play, Different Actors: 

Same Play, Different Actors Source: Bearing Asset Management 2005 Credit bubble 2000 Tech bubble

Same Play, Different Actors Magazine Covers: 

Same Play, Different Actors Magazine Covers Tech Boom June 19, 2000 Housing Boom June 13, 2005

Same Play, Different Actors Pied Pipers: 

Same Play, Different Actors Pied Pipers Abby Cohen June 1, 1998 Jim “Mad Money” Cramer October 31, 2005

Same Play, Different Actors: 

Same Play, Different Actors

Wealth Effect or Illusion?: 

Wealth Effect or Illusion? Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management Credit bubble Tech bubble Fair value net worth: Equities = 80% x DPI Real estate = 130% x DPI “What I think I’m worth” “What I’m really worth”

Wealth Effect or Illusion? 2000 Tech Bubble: 

Wealth Effect or Illusion? 2000 Tech Bubble Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management Long-term average = 80% x DPI March, 2000 = 177%

Wealth Effect or Illusion? 2005 Credit Bubble: 

Wealth Effect or Illusion? 2005 Credit Bubble Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management September, 2005 = 211% Long-term average = 130% x DPI

Wealth Effect or Illusion? 2000 Tech Bubble vs. 2005 Credit Bubble: 

Wealth Effect or Illusion? 2000 Tech Bubble vs. 2005 Credit Bubble Sources: Federal Reserve, Bearing Asset Management Tech bubble Credit bubble

Forbes 400 Wealthiest Americans: 

Forbes 400 Wealthiest Americans Sources: Forbes, Bearing Asset Management

Stadium Naming Rights: 

Stadium Naming Rights Sources: ESPN, League of Fans, Ryan Krueger, Wikipedia, Bearing Asset Management

Canary in the Coal Mine: 2000 Key Consumer of Networking & Telecom Equipment: 

Canary in the Coal Mine: 2000 Key Consumer of Networking & Telecom Equipment Internet leads Tech equipment suppliers follow

Canary in the Coal Mine: 2005 Key Supplier of Mortgage Credit: 

Canary in the Coal Mine: 2005 Key Supplier of Mortgage Credit Fannie Mae leads Home buyers follow

The Fat Lady is Singing Credit Drug Wearing Off: 

The Fat Lady is Singing Credit Drug Wearing Off Source: Blogspot.com

The Fat Lady is Singing Home Inventories Rising Past Three Months: 

The Fat Lady is Singing Home Inventories Rising Past Three Months Phoenix: 72.3% Miami: 47.7% Tampa: 36.3% Washington, DC: 34.1% Jacksonville: 32.1% Boston: 28.5% Los Angeles: 26.7% Sources: Housing Tracker, BusinessWeek

The Fat Lady is Singing Refi Tailwind Becoming ARM Reset Tsunami: 

The Fat Lady is Singing Refi Tailwind Becoming ARM Reset Tsunami Source: Bearing Asset Management

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” - Mark Twain: 

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” - Mark Twain