ccos diagnostic

Slide1: 

CCOS 2000 Model Intercomparison: Diagnostic Analyses January 27 2002, Progress Report to CARB Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary, Bo Wang University of California, Riverside Bourns College of Engineering Center for Environmental Research and Technology

Process Analysis Outputs for CAMx: 

Process Analysis Outputs for CAMx Integrated reaction rates (IRR) show chemical production and loss in the grid cell where the species reacted. Results shown here as total ppb/day Integrated Process Rates (IPR) show transport, dispersion, emissions, deposition. Have not looked at these terms yet.

Chemical Process Analysis for CAMx: 

Chemical Process Analysis for CAMx IRR outputs stored in CAMx CPA file: Total reactivity P(Ox) = P(O3) and oxidation of NO. Radical budget controls P(O3) and sensitivity in urban areas: Radical initiation Radical propagation and termination NOy budget controls P(O3) and O3 sensitivity in rural areas: Conversion of NOx to Inert HNO3, RNO3, PAN.

CAMx CB4 vs SAPRC99 reactivity: 

CAMx CB4 vs SAPRC99 reactivity As expected SAPRC99 is “hotter”than CB4: SAPRC99 has greater organic radical production and lower OH+NO2 radical termination. SAPRC99 produces more O3 in urban areas and less in rural areas. Consistent with box model comparisons. Next several plots compare P(Ox) reactivity in CAMx CB4 and SAPRC99 and also show day to day variability in reactivity.

CAMx P(Ox) on July 30: 

CAMx P(Ox) on July 30

CAMx P(Ox) on July 30: 

CAMx P(Ox) on July 30

CAMx P(Ox) on July 31: 

CAMx P(Ox) on July 31

CAMx P(Ox) on August 1: 

CAMx P(Ox) on August 1

CAMx P(Ox) on August 2: 

CAMx P(Ox) on August 2

Production of HNO3 by OH+NO2 on July 30: 

Production of HNO3 by OH+NO2 on July 30

Production of HNO3 by N2O5 on July 30: 

Production of HNO3 by N2O5 on July 30

Production of RNO3 on July 30: 

Production of RNO3 on July 30

Net Production of PANs on July 30: 

Net Production of PANs on July 30

Production efficiency P(Ox)/P(NOz): 

Production efficiency P(Ox)/P(NOz)

Slide15: 

O3 VOC-NOx Sensitivity Use observation based methods to estimate peak O3 sensitivity to VOC and NOx Compare grid model with constrained steady state model results. Use process analysis to estimate P(Ox) sensitivity to VOC and NOx.

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 July 30: 

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 July 30

H2O2/HNO3 for SAPRC99 July 30: 

H2O2/HNO3 for SAPRC99 July 30

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 July 31: 

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 July 31

H2O2/HNO3 for SAPRC99 July 31: 

H2O2/HNO3 for SAPRC99 July 31

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 August 1: 

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 August 1

H2O2/HNO3 for SAPRC99 August 1: 

H2O2/HNO3 for SAPRC99 August 1

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 August 2: 

H2O2/HNO3 for CB4 August 2

O3 Sensitivity versus P(O3) Sensitivity: 

O3 Sensitivity versus P(O3) Sensitivity

Extent Parameter: 

Extent Parameter Calculated extent using ambient data as average of measured NOx = NO+NO2 and measured NOx = NOy. Calculated model extent as NOx=NO+NO2. Poor agreement between models and data. Need to further evaluate this.

Extent from Ambient O3-NOx data: 

Extent from Ambient O3-NOx data

Extent from Ambient O3-NOx data: 

Extent from Ambient O3-NOx data

Extent at Parlier Site July 30(NO2 from TDL): 

Extent at Parlier Site July 30 (NO2 from TDL)

Extent at Parlier Site July 31(NO2 from TDL): 

Extent at Parlier Site July 31 (NO2 from TDL)

Extent at Parlier Site August 1(NO2 from TDL): 

Extent at Parlier Site August 1 (NO2 from TDL)

Extent at Parlier Site August 2(NO2 from TDL): 

Extent at Parlier Site August 2 (NO2 from TDL)

Evaluate Vertical Mixing: 

Evaluate Vertical Mixing Comparsions of CO as a relatively inert tracer Sensitivity run with met pass through for CMAQ

Model CO Conc Differences: 

Model CO Conc Differences CMAQ has lower conc early morning and higher conc later in the day. Hypothesis: Difference in vertical dispersion CO Conc plots do not appear to support this. Need to further investigate.

Model CO at 5:00 PDT: 

Model CO at 5:00 PDT

Model CO at 6:00 PDT: 

Model CO at 6:00 PDT

Slide35: 

Model CO at 8:00 PDT

Model CO at 10:00 PDT: 

Model CO at 10:00 PDT

Slide37: 

Model CO N-S Slice at 8:00 PDT

CMAQ MCIP2 Sensitivity: 

CMAQ MCIP2 Sensitivity Pass through of MM5 MRF Met data

Recommendations: 

Recommendations Focus primarily on CAMx with SAPRC99 for the next phase of modeling. Continue to investigate CMAQ Meteorology and vertical mixing, h-diffusion Updated N2O5  HNO3 with aerosols Additional CMAQ runs well be useful for corrobatory analysis. Run both models again if there are substantial changes in emissions.

Slide40: 

Next Steps Update emissions inventories Updated Mobile inventory Corrections to point sources Resolve discrepancy in emissions processing CAMx sensitivity runs with lower model top, approx 4 km to reduce number of vertical layers. CMAQ Need aerosol chemistry to use updated N2O5 kinetics Investigate vertical mixing and horizontal diffusion