session3 investing in energy

Investing in Energy – Risks, Rewards & Options: 

Investing in Energy – Risks, Rewards & Options Sanjay Gakhar

Indian Oil & Gas Scenario: 

Indian Oil & Gas Scenario Oil : India ranks amongst the top 10 largest oil consuming countries. Oil accounts for about 30 per cent of India’s total energy consumption of 2.4 million barrels per day. Imports accounts for about 75 per cent of oil consumption India had a total of 2.1 million barrels per day in refining capacity. Natural Gas: Indian consumption of natural gas has risen from a 0.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1995 to about 0.9 tcf & is projected to reach 1.2 Tcf in 2010 and 1.6 Tcf by 2015. About 50 per cent of the country’s gas requirement were met through imports.

Government Liberalization -Reforms in Energy Sector: 

Government Liberalization -Reforms in Energy Sector Oil: Indian govt. officially ended the Administered Pricing Mechanism for petroleum product prices Disinvestment in Public Sector Complete deregulation of the Indian retail petroleum products sector is under progress. Natural Gas: Govt. has been considering reforms in its natural gas pricing mechanism. Coal: The government has been planning to greater liberalize the coal-sector. Electricity: The new guidelines of National Electricity Policy (NEP) allow competition Open access in distribution Foreign equity is permitted up to 100 per cent.

India’s Exposure to Crude Prices : 

India’s Exposure to Crude Prices Imports accounts for about 75 per cent of oil consumption Producers, refiners & consumers exposed to international price volatility Paradigm shift likely from ‘administered pricing’ to ‘free market’ pricing Price volatility cannot be wished away

Risk Exposures: 

Risk Exposures Producers Sharp decline in oil prices Economic viability of profitable wells may turn non-profitable Refiners Change in value of inventories Volatile cash flows may lead to liquidity crunch Volatility in prices between period of buying crude & selling products Importers / Exporters of crude oil & products are permitted to hedge their exposure to price risk

Close Relationship (All Varieties): 

Close Relationship (All Varieties)

MCX Crude Oil Futures: 

MCX Crude Oil Futures Trading successfully since 9th February 2005 Three varieties Light Sweet Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil Middle East Sour Crude Oil (Dubai & Oman Grades) Provides a marketplace for bringing together physical industry participants and financial investors Ideal mix of day traders & position traders as exhibited by high liquidity & open interest respectively

MCX-NYMEX Crude Oil Correlation: 

MCX-NYMEX Crude Oil Correlation MCX-NYMEX Crude Oil Correlation: 98%

Slide9: 

MCX Energy Basket Light Sweet Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil Middle East Crude Oil Furnace Oil Natural Gas* Coal* * may be launched soon

Contract Specifications for Crude Oil Futures (Light Sweet, Brent & MiddleEast): 

Trading Unit:100 barrels Quotation/Base Value: Rs. per barrel Tick Size: Re. 1 Price Quote: Ex – Mumbai (excluding all taxes, sales tax / VAT as the case may be, levies, freight and other expenses) Daily Price Limits & Initial Margin: 4% & 5% Contract Specifications for Crude Oil Futures (Light Sweet, Brent & MiddleEast)

MCX & NYMEX Strategic Alliance: 

MCX & NYMEX Strategic Alliance MCX through the recent exclusive Licensing Agreement with NYMEX on 05 June 2006, will shortly* launch mini-versions of NYMEX energy products as follows & settle these contracts based on NYMEX settlement prices Gasoline Heating Oil Natural Gas *subject to regulatory approvals

Slide12: 

Thank You