Cost Of Manpower Estimating Tool (COMET) : Cost Of Manpower Estimating Tool (COMET) WebSite Brief
Feb 2001
Quick Look : Quick Look Initial Dec 95 CNA (Dr. Eskew) Study Methodology/Results
NAVSEA 017 Request For “Cost Of A Sailor” (COAS) Study
Aug 96 CNA/NCCA COAS Study and Methodology
Variable Indirect Coefficients/Costs/Manpower Category Drivers
Traditional vs. COMET Cost of Manpower
Comparison of Popular Costing Methodologies
Manpower Costs of 19 Ship Classes/”707 Rule”
ASN(RD&A)/NCCA Direction For Intra-Navy O&S Use of COMET
COMET’s Three Major O&S Applications
Cost Granularity Examples
FY 01 All-Navy Officer and Enlisted Costs
Planned Improvements
Summary of Key COMET Points
COMET POC
“Some New Estimates of the Navy’s Indirect Manning Costs” Dr. Henry L. Eskew (CRM 95-203/CNA -- Dec 95) : “Some New Estimates of the Navy’s Indirect Manning Costs” Dr. Henry L. Eskew (CRM 95-203/CNA -- Dec 95) “How does a change in manning of ships and squadrons at sea affect the Navy’s shore-based manning?”
Search for “Indirect” manpower costs
Why? To examine manning “tradeoffs” associated with:
Arsenal Ship
Support Ships (AOEs) Manned By MSC
Long-term fiscal requirements generated by alternative forces structures that vary in both size and composition
Use FYDP analysis from FYs 80-96:
All Volunteer Force (spanning both “buildup” and “drawdown”)
Employ Regression Analysis to determine Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/cna1.pdf
DoD Active Duty End Strength FYs 80-89 (“Buildup”)/FYs 90-96 (“Drawdown”) : DoD Active Duty End Strength FYs 80-89 (“Buildup”)/FYs 90-96 (“Drawdown”) End Strength
1980 - 513,000
1989 - 593,000
1996 - 406,000
001113 - 373,193 Ships
1980 - 519
1989 - 586
1996 - 373
001113 - 318 Buildup Drawdown http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/military/ms8.pdf
DoD Active Duty End Strength FYs 80-89 (“Buildup”)/FYs 90-96 (“Drawdown”) : DoD Active Duty End Strength FYs 80-89 (“Buildup”)/FYs 90-96 (“Drawdown”) End Strength
1980 - 513,000
1989 - 593,000
1996 - 406,000
001113 - 373,193 Ships
1980 - 519
1989 - 586
1996 - 373
001113 - 318 Buildup Drawdown http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/military/ms8.pdf
Fundamental Dec 95 Study FYDP Methodology (End Strength Depicted is Jun 96/424,000) : Fundamental Dec 95 Study FYDP Methodology (End Strength Depicted is Jun 96/424,000) 1 - Strategic Forces
2 - General Purpose Forces 6 - R&D
7 - Supply and Maintenance From FYs 80-96, when the size of the “afloat forces” changed, was there a corresponding change in the size of “ashore forces”? 3 - Intelligence and Communications
4 - Airlift and Sealift
5 - Guard and Reserve Forces
6 - Research, Development, Test and Evaluation
7 - Central Supply and Maintenance
8 - Training, Medical and Other General Personnel
Activities
9 - Administration and Associated Activities
10- Support of Other Nations
11- Special Operating Forces Examine ashore change
1 year after afloat change http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/cna1.pdf
Results -- Regression Analysis Billet Addition/Reduction Coefficients/Variable Indirect : Results -- Regression Analysis Billet Addition/Reduction Coefficients/Variable Indirect 1.0
Afloat Billet
Added or Lost 0.9
Ashore Billet
Added or Lost 1.0 1.0 Variable (Change
In Billets Over Time) Indirect (Added
Manpower Cost) Direct
Cost http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/cna1.pdf
COMET -- The Idea NAVSEA Request For “Cost Of A Sailor” (COAS) Methodology : COMET -- The Idea NAVSEA Request For “Cost Of A Sailor” (COAS) Methodology
COAS Methodology Refining The Original Dec 95 Study : COAS Methodology Refining The Original Dec 95 Study Redefine “direct” (or afloat) forces
FYDP Programs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 and 11
Redefine “support” (or ashore) forces
FYDP Programs 8 and 9 (base support functions of 1 and 2)
Define and factor out “no support” (from ashore) forces
FYDP Programs 6 and 7 (portions of 8 and 9)
Support Weapons Systems/Management Headquarters/Staffs
Determine civilian support (OMN) dollars
GS Wages and Salaries/Contractor Fees (represents about 70%)
Extract data at FYDP Program Element (PE) level and use regression analysis to determine COAS Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)
Capture only the “variable indirect” manpower (billet) costs (MPN/OMN) associated with recruiting, training (initial), locating (individual’s account) and supporting personnel -- up to reporting to their first “at sea” unit
Methodology ignores FIXED costs of any kind http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/cna2.pdf
COAS Methodology FYDP/PE/MPN/OMN Analysis (Jun 96 -- 424,000 E/S) : COAS Methodology FYDP/PE/MPN/OMN Analysis (Jun 96 -- 424,000 E/S) 1 - Strategic Forces
2 - General Purpose Forces
3 - Intelligence and Communications
4 - Airlift and Sealift
5 - Guard and Reserve Forces
10 -Support of Other Nations
11- Special Operating Forces Programs 1 and 2
Support PEs 6 - R&D
7 - Supply and Maintenance 8 - Training, Medical and Other Pers Act
9 - Administrative and Associated Act Green Arrows
Denote Support Provided http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/cna2.pdf
COAS Methodology Navy Variable Indirect MPN and OMN Components : COAS Methodology Navy Variable Indirect MPN and OMN Components MPN (Support) Component
Basic Pay
Other Allowances (BAH/BAS/FSA)
Special & Incentive Pays/Bonuses
Retired Pay Accrual
FICA and PCS OMN (Support) Component
Civilian Personnel Salaries (35%)
Contractor Fees (35%)
Base Operating Support
Recruiting and Advertising
Training and Administrative Acquiring
Training
Locating
Supporting ONNC (OMN) Defense Health Care Note: MGIB is a Direct Other Non-Navy Cost (ONNC)
Variable Indirect Costs Acquiring, Training, Locating and Supporting (MPN and OMN) : Variable Indirect Costs Acquiring, Training, Locating and Supporting (MPN and OMN) Acquiring (or Recruiting):
Advertising, Recruiting, Examining and Processing Costs
Training:
“Basic and General Skill Training” and Rating Specific (Enlisted)/Community (Officer) Training for either to get member to his/her first permanent duty station
Locating:
Individual’s Account (Students/Transients (Leave, Travel, Proceed, TEMDU), Patients, Prisoners and Holdees – TPPH account – depicted on next slide)
Supporting:
Medical (DoD subsidized and Navy), Base Operation Support and Administrative http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/cna2.pdf
Individuals (TPPH) Account : Individuals (TPPH) Account http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/tpph.pdf
Variable Indirect Coefficients Coefficients Based On E/S Change Per 1000 : Variable Indirect Coefficients Coefficients Based On E/S Change Per 1000
Variable Indirect Costs/Drivers Coefficients Converted To MPN/OMN (FY 01$) : Variable Indirect Costs/Drivers Coefficients Converted To MPN/OMN (FY 01$)
COMET -- The Reality Released in June 1998 (Windows 95/Freeware) : COMET -- The Reality Released in June 1998 (Windows 95/Freeware)
Key Cost Concepts Components of COMET Manpower Cost (FY01$) : Key Cost Concepts Components of COMET Manpower Cost (FY01$) Traditional Navy Manpower Cost Analysis COMET/COAS Manpower Cost Analysis Traditional
PO1
$55,875 COMET VI+ONN
$36,462 + = Cost Of Manpower
$92,337
“707 (General) Rule of Thumb” For Every Change Of 100 “Sea Duty Billets” In End Strength... : “707 (General) Rule of Thumb” For Every Change Of 100 “Sea Duty Billets” In End Strength... 70 “Support (MPN) Sailors” and,
7 “Support (OMN) Civilians”
Total Change of:
100 Sea Duty Sailors (MPN)
70 Support Sailors (MPN)
7 Support Civilians (OMN)
177 Bodies (Billets) As with any of “Rule of Thumb,” total (military and civilian) support billet numbers vary with the composition (skill, pay grade mix) of manpower examined
PO1/ET1(SS)NUC Billet Costs Cost Granularity -- 118 Enlisted Ratings and Management Communities : PO1/ET1(SS)NUC Billet Costs Cost Granularity -- 118 Enlisted Ratings and Management Communities All Navy Petty Officer
First Class Electronics Technician
Submarine Service
Nuclear Reactor Operator
O3/LT 1120 (Sub) Billet Costs Cost Granularity -- 32 Officer Designators : O3/LT 1120 (Sub) Billet Costs Cost Granularity -- 32 Officer Designators All Navy
Lieutenant (O3) Lieutenant
Submarine Service
Nuclear Qualified
Manpower Costing Methods Use The Right Method For The Right Process (FY01$) : Manpower Costing Methods Use The Right Method For The Right Process (FY01$) Direct Costs COMET Variable
Indirect Costs Overall
Averages Specific To
Pay Grade, Rating
or Community Standard
Programming
Rates NAVCOMPT
Standard
Rates COMET
118 Enlisted Ratings
32 Officer Designators PPBS Reimbursable O&S O6 -- $141,943
O4 -- $103,253
O2 -- $ 68,608
W2-- $ 70,857
E9 -- $ 79,543
E7 -- $ 58,434
E5 -- $ 43,034
E3 -- $ 28,808
O -- $92,630
E -- $41,251 O -- $54,807
E -- $35,455 O&S O-6 Air $146,368
O-4 Sub $107,322
O-2 Sur $ 65,306
W-2 Air $ 63,854
ETCM $ 94,016
BMC $ 66,000
MS2 $ 48,292
ABHAN $ 31,348 O-6 Air $110,964
O-4 Sub $ 83,533
O-2 Sur $ 51,599
W-2 Air $ 51,331
ETCM $ 64,977
BMC $ 35,190
MS2 $ 31,173
ABHAN $ 35,972 http://www.dtic.mil/comptroller/rates/2001_k3.pdf
“Side-by-Side” Cost Comparisons Major Ship Classes (FY00$K Annual Cost) : “Side-by-Side” Cost Comparisons Major Ship Classes (FY00$K Annual Cost)
ASN(RD&A) Direction Intra-Navy Use Of COMET : ASN(RD&A) Direction Intra-Navy Use Of COMET In his 19 Aug 97 memo to the Navy Acquisition Community, RADM Sullivan wrote:
“The exclusion of (variable) indirect personnel costs has underestimated manpower costs and distorted the results of tradeoffs between personnel costs and investment in new technologies. It is important that we use more accurate personnel cost estimating rates for intra-Navy tradeoffs and analyses. I thus request that you employ COMET (values)...for all future intra-Navy analytical purposes. Cost estimates forwarded to organizations outside the Navy should continue to use only direct manpower cost rates.” http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/asnrda.pdf
NCCA Follow-On Direction Use Of COMET For O&S Analyses : NCCA Follow-On Direction Use Of COMET For O&S Analyses In his 17 Mar 00 memo to the Navy Acquisition Community, CAPT Owens wrote:
“COMET should be used for intra-Navy O&S analyses regarding:
manpower-to-manpower comparisons and
manpower-to-new technology tradeoffs
where the decision to establish or eliminate “sea duty” manpower billets necessitates that analysts employ more accurate O&S manpower costs. COMET is not intended to replace either the Standard Programming Rates (PPBS) or the Navy Composite Standard Rates (Reimbursable) in their respective cost processes.” http://www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/captowensmemo.pdf
COMET Model’s Applications : COMET Model’s Applications What Manpower Costs COMET Captures?
Precise direct manpower cost estimating -- Active Duty, Reserve and Civilian components
Variable Indirect manpower cost estimating for scenarios where Active Duty billets will either be created or eliminated
Other Non-Navy manpower costs identified (MGIB/DHP)
Why It’s Important to More Accurate Manpower Costing?
Manpower-to-Manpower O&S Analyses
In use by NAVSEA Program Offices and Contractors in support of major platforms since June 98
Manpower-to-Hardware (New Technology) O&S Analyses
Allows the decision-maker to determine whether to invest in/commit to new technologies
Limited Total Ownership Cost (TOC) Application
Doesn’t capture FIXED costs of any kind
Slide26 : COMET/O&S TOC Reduction Relevance!
To LPD-17 and Maybe Your Program, Too!
Slide27 : LPD-17 COMET/TOC Slide
Excerpted From 26Jul99 TOC/CAIV Workshop Presentation
By Mr. Harvey Speight
1st Navy Shipbuilding Program To Invest in TOC!!
- PMS 317/Avondale Alliance striving for TOC avoidance
- Seeking construction and operational efficiencies
- Current level of investment : $18M/ship
TOC Reduction Goal of 20% O&S = $5.2B (MS II estimate updated using COMET model for manpower cost) $3.2B in TOC avoidance
COMET WebPage www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/index.html : COMET WebPage www.ncca.navy.mil/comet/index.html
With A Downloaded COMET SMD File View, Edit or Cost CVN-74 In A Matter Of Minutes : With A Downloaded COMET SMD File View, Edit or Cost CVN-74 In A Matter Of Minutes
All Navy COMET Costs Enlisted and Officer (FY01$) : All Navy COMET Costs Enlisted and Officer (FY01$) Direct Costs
Variable Indirect Costs
Acquiring
Training
Locating
Supporting
Other Non-Navy Costs
MGIB/DHP
Cost Granularity
What’s New And What’s Next? : What’s New And What’s Next? What’s New -- Feb 01
Release V2.1
Combines the three separate components (Active Duty, Reserve and Civilian) into one download
What’s Next -- Jan 02
Release V2.2
Add Squadron Manpower Documents (SQMDs) to the Manpower Library
Will include all major aircraft types (with Fleet Replacement Squadrons (FRSs)
Add a web-based COMET LITE that will allow the website browser to examine costs without downloading the model
COMET “Open Book” Quiz Summary Points : COMET “Open Book” Quiz Summary Points Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) between “direct and support” end strength from FYs 80-96
FYDP (WINPAT) Program Element Analysis/Regression Analysis
Variable Indirect used for intra-Navy active duty analyses only
Billets must either be created or eliminated/”707 Rule”
Manpower-to-Manpower O&S Analyses
Manpower-to-Hardware (New Technologies) O&S Analyses
Limited TOC Application
Direct Costs (MPN) -- more precise
Variable Indirect Costs (MPN & OMN)
Acquiring, Training, Locating and Supporting
Non-Navy Costs (MPN & OMN)
Montgomery GI Bill (MPN)
DoD Health Care (OMN)
Cost Granularity
118 Enlisted Ratings and Management Communities
32 Officer Designators
All-Navy Officer and Enlisted
Training costs are the biggest “driver” in the COMET model
Training costs only capture “basic and general skill (enlisted) or initial community (officer) training” needed to get the member to his/her first permanent duty station
No FIXED costs of any kind used
Variable Indirects only calculated for Active Duty only
Download COMET v2.0 (Windows95 Freeware)
Download SMD Library
Download Active Duty/SMD Tutorials
Check out the COMET WEBPAGE!