Slide1: Commission on Independent Colleges and Universities SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE New York’s 100+ private, not-for-profit colleges and universities Presentation on P-16 to the Joint Fiscal Committees February 27, 2007 Abe Lackman, President, cIcu


Slide2: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Demographic Destiny


Slide3: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE NYS Kindergarten Enrollment Declining Since 1995, NYS kindergarten enrollment is down 37,000 Contrary to conventional wisdom, this decline is throughout New York State: Upstate is down 18,000 New York City is down 17,000 Long Island is down 2,000


Slide4: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Kindergarten Enrollment Nationally There are areas of declining, relatively flat and growing kindergarten enrollment across the country As you might expect, New England and the Mid-Atlantic (including New York) are declining The Mid-Atlantic is down 64,000 since 1995 New England is down 16,000 Mid-Atlantic includes: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA, DC New England includes: CT, MA, ME, NH


Slide5: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Where Are All The Children? The Great Lakes, Plains, and Far West are relatively flat Each of these regions experienced some decline from 1995 to 2000 and then rebounded Great Lakes includes: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI Plains includes: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD Far West includes: AK, CA, HI, NV, OR, WA


Slide6: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE In the Southeast, Southwest and Rocky Mtns The Southeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions are seeing consistent growth Since 1995: The Southwest is up 54,000 The Southeast is up 32,000 Rocky Mountain is up 8,000 Southeast includes: AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV Southwest: AZ, NM, OK, TX Rocky Mountains: CO, ID, MT, UT, WY


Slide7: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE What’s Happening To Ethnicity?


Slide8: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Ethnicity New York’s high school student population In 1980, minorities accounted for 32 percent In 2004, minorities comprised 44 percent Hispanics are 18 percent Blacks are 19 percent Asians are 7 percent Whites are 56 percent Since 1980, whites have declined 12 percentage points, Blacks have grown 1 percentage point, Hispanics 6 percentage points, and Asians 5 percentage points The future crop of college students will be increasingly more diverse The next slide shows the 10-year change in the ethnicity of kindergarten students nationally


Slide9: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE U.S. Public Kindergarten Population


Slide10: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE High School Graduation Rates


Slide11: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE High School Graduates Predicted to Decline The number of high school graduates is predicted to decline after 2008-09 both nationally and in New York State The decline in New York State is much greater than the nation. New York State is forecast to drop 14.5 percent compared to the national decline of 4.6 percent


Slide12: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE New York State High School Graduation Rates


Slide13: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE New York Graduation Rates Below the Nation’s Currently, New York State’s high school graduation rate is 62.5 percent and the national rate is nearly 70 percent A more detailed analysis of New York’s high school graduation rate reveals a wide gap between white and minority students While the national rate for Hispanic students is 56 percent, New York State’s is 33 percent (a 23 percentage point difference) The national rate for Black students is 52 percent, New York State’s is 37 percent (a 15 percentage point difference) The graduation rate counts students entering 9th grade and graduating 4 years later


Slide14: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Pipeline Leaks Are a Cause for Concern The high school graduation rate of New York’s students of color is alarming Graduation rates for white students are in line with national numbers, but fall off dramatically for Black and Hispanic students Only one third of our Hispanic students are graduating in 4 years and only 37 percent of our Black students


Slide15: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Per Capita Spending in K-16 Education and High School Graduation Rates


Slide16: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE What the Future Holds These disparities in high school graduation rates are cause for concern and very telling when considering future college enrollment When these minority graduation rates are coupled with the growth of minority enrollment in New York’s high school student body, it signals a decline in the pool of traditional college students and the educational level of the State’s future workforce


Slide17: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Governor Spitzer’s School Aid Investment The SFY 2007-08 Executive Budget proposes $19 billion in School Aid funding, a $1.4 billion increase (8 percent) over last year The Executive also proposes a four-year plan to increase School Aid spending by $7 billion by the 2010-2011 school year


Slide18: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Getting Results The Executive Budget is committing $7 billion in School Aid over the next four years As seen on the prior slides, increased spending does not always translate into results New York State is high in per capita spending for elementary and secondary education and near the bottom in high school graduation rates


Slide19: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE The 2007-08 Executive Budget and Higher Education


Slide20: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE SFY 2007-08 Executive Budget Relative to past Executive Budgets, this is the best starting point in years for higher education. For the first time in 5 years, there are no drastic cuts to student financial aid – TAP and the Opportunity Programs While the Executive Budget is an excellent platform to evaluate higher education there are however, no increases in student financial aid TAP for dependents has not been increased in 7 years; TAP for independent students in 17 years and TAP for graduate students in 20 years


Slide21: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE TAP and Pell Grants Provide Access


Slide22: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE TAP Funding on the Decline SFY 2005-06 State Budget – $909 million SFY 2006-07 State Budget – $876 million SFY 2007-08 Executive Budget – $857 million


Slide23: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE More Black and Hispanic Students Are Earning Degrees


Slide24: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE The Independent Sector Educates a Greater Share of Students of Color


Slide25: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Maximizing TAP for All New Yorkers


Slide26: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Maximizing TAP for New Yorkers


Slide27: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Undergraduate TAP for Dependent Students


Slide28: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Undergraduate TAP for Independent Students


Slide29: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE The Independent Sector SFY 2007-08 Legislative Priorities


Slide30: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE Restore the $4.2 million cut to Direct Institutional “Bundy” Aid Expand Tuition Assistance Program (TAP) funding by 20 percent ($205 million); TAP $6,000 Implement the Higher Education Capital Matching Grants program by appointing the “HE Cap” Board Expand Higher Education Opportunity Program (HEOP) funding by 20 percent ($4.8 million increase to $29 million from $24.2 million) Expand Liberty Partnerships funding by 20 percent ($2.4 million increase to $14.4 million from $12 million) Expand math and science programs Expand the Tuition Tax Deduction and Credit


Slide31: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE More Discussion Necessary


Slide32: SOLUTIONS FOR NEW YORK’S FUTURE More Discussion Warranted on the Following Executive Budget Proposals Student Unit Records Data - the Commissioner of Education has been asked to study the development of a pre-kindergarten through postsecondary (P-16) student unit record data system to track student performance and link students to teachers and instructors. Alternative Certification - the Executive Budget directs the Regents and Commissioner of Education to expand the availability of alternative certification including experimental teacher preparation training programs. Ability to Benefit - the Executive Budget proposes eliminating TAP eligibility for “ability to benefit” students; an estimated $30 million TAP cut. We understand that students must have a high school diploma from an American high school or its equivalent or meet State Education Department alternative academic standards. We ask to be included in any discussion of these alternative academic standards.