herrera Parallel 4 1

Moving out of Poverty: 

Moving out of Poverty stylized facts from recent research Seventh Annual Global Development Conference St. Petersburg, Russia January 14-23 Javier Herrera IRD-DIAL herrera@dial.prd.fr http://www.dial.prd.fr

Outline: 

Outline I.- Shortcomings of the static approach II. Poverty Dynamics: new issues III.- Stylized facts from developing countries IV Agenda for future research

I.- Shortcomings of the static approach : 

I.- Shortcomings of the static approach Only net poverty flows are considered Pro-poor growth as well as poverty and inequality are misestimated II.- Poverty Dynamics: new issues Different policies may be needed to deal with chronic and transient poor Targeting implications

III.- Stylized facts from developing countries: 

III.- Stylized facts from developing countries Poverty flows are higher than the evolution of static poverty Varying proportions of chronic and transient poor coexists in each country Spatial poverty traps specially in rural areas (geography, public services, etc.) Econometric modeling not yet successful for identifying specific factors associated to transient poverty

III.- Stylized facts from developing countries: 

III.- Stylized facts from developing countries Labor market improvements are associated from escaping poverty (job quality in urban areas, job diversification outside agriculture in rural areas) are the major events behind escaping poverty Demographic shocks and covariant shocks (droughts) are factors associated to entries into poverty

IV.- Agenda for future research: 

IV.- Agenda for future research More national (urban & rural) panel household surveys are needed Combined Qualitative & Quantitative approaches are necessary for better understanding Short run and long run income mobility has to be considered

IV.- Agenda for future research: 

IV.- Agenda for future research Implementing a multidimensional poverty approach Demographic composition and labor market decisions are endogenous and inter-related Policies must target also vulnerable (not yet) poor

IV.- Agenda for future research: 

IV.- Agenda for future research Policies should focus on households’ own (successful) strategies for moving out poverty Policies improving household assets (human and physical capital) as well as safety nets & insurance are to be considered together Covariant and idiosyncratic shocks has to be taken into account More comparative research is needed