N6 Sutherst

Slide2: 

Pests – Insects, Diseases & Weeds Present Economic* Costs (USA) $123 billion (Pimentel et al. 1999) Alien weeds $35 billion Introduced Insects $19 billion Plant Diseases $26 billion Animal Diseases $9 billion Human pathogens $6.5 billion * Not non-market environmental or health costs 40% of endangered or threatened species are at risk primarily from foreign species.  

Slide3: 

Global Change & IPM Land Use & Land Cover Climate Change Climate Volatility Bio-geochemistry CO2 Globalisation, Trade & Transport Alien species & GMOs ICT Biotechnology Human Health

Slide4: 

Vulnerability Scales : Regional, Industry/Ecosystem or Plot

Slide5: 

Bjorn Lomborg’s linear view of climate change Crowley 2000 Science

Slide6: 

Climate change can be very non-linear. Can you pick the ‘threshold’ or point of no return?

Slide7: 

CLIMATE ‘FLIP FLOPS’

Slide8: 

“Regional climate changes of as much as 8oC to 16oC occurred repeatedly in as little as a decade or less” in the period 8ka and Younger Dryas (Alley et al. 2003) What would that do to today’s world?

Slide9: 

Some reasons why managing pests under global change is a non-trivial problem

Slide10: 

Climate Change is occurring already Just ask the birds and the bees! Population and life-history changes Shifts in geographical ranges Changes in species composition in communities Changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. These changes result from only a 0.6oC increase

Slide14: 

One Global Change Impacts Toolkit for Pests

Slide16: 

Rockhampton, Queensland Boophilus microplus (Cattle tick) Oct-72 Apr-73 Oct-73 Apr-74 Oct-74 Apr-75 Oct-75 Ticks / animal 200 400 Rainfall (mm) 0 200 400 600 0

Slide17: 

1973 was 1.6oC warmer than 1972

Slide18: 

‘Where’ is as important as ‘When’ Underlying population growth is higher, less variable and more competitive in the core of the distribution Less propagule pressure is needed to establish in the core than at the edge. Earliest effects of global warming on each species will be seen at the edges of the distributions

Slide19: 

Total Cost = $28.5m p.a. Total Cost = $21m +1.0°C +2.0°C +2.0°C Current +1.0°C Vulnerability of Australian Horticulture to Pests under Climate Change Current Queensland Fruit Fly Light Brown Apple Moth

Slide20: 

Industry + 1oC + 2oC Oranges Apples Pears Industry + 1oC + 2oC Oranges Apples Pears Grapes + 1.8 + 2.1 + 0.9 + 3.5 + 5.6 + 2.8 - 1.3 + 0.5 + 0.2 - 0.5 - 4.7 + 0.7 + 0.2 - 1.9 Changes in Pest Damage (from CLIMEX Ecoclimatic Index) (A$millions) Queensland Fruit Fly Light Brown Apple Moth

Slide21: 

Why we need to look at whole systems Malaria risk in Australia

Slide22: 

Effect of timing of rainfall on species

Slide24: 

Impacts will include: Extended plant growing seasons Spread of woody plants into drier areas Increased leaf area: more shelter Changed plant herbivore nutrition Changed plant-disease relationships CO2 Increased water use efficiency in plants

Slide25: 

0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 Infection cycle Fecundity (spores/lesion) Increasing fecundity of anthracnose through infection cycles on Stylosanthes Ambient CO2 x 2-Ambient CO2

Slide26: 

Chewing insects are less fit at 2 x CO2 Slower development Higher larval mortality Reduced fecundity More compensatory feeding Less efficient digestion

Slide27: 

Plant-sucking insects respond differently to x 2 CO2 (eg. aphids (Awmack)

Slide28: 

A. solani reproduction at high CO2

Slide31: 

Resilience and Sustainability Adaptation We won’t just stand and watch!

Slide32: 

Steps to Sustainable Management (AtKisson – Believing Cassandra) Benchmark - baseline to measure change Indicators & monitoring to track change Framework (strategy + technology) to guide adaptation Accelerate change (win community support)

Slide34: 

Genetic Adaptations Host-specific insects adapt genetically to track plant phenology Preserve genetic diversity within & between species

Slide35: 

Chemical Control of Cattle Ticks under Higher Temperatures

Slide36: 

Potential losses from cattle tick under business as usual

Slide37: 

Potential losses from cattle tick with breed changes

Slide38: 

Email: Bob.sutherst@csiro.au Web: http://www.ento.csiro.au/research/pestmgmt/dymex/dymexfr.htm http://www.ento.csiro.au/research/pestmgmt/climex/climex.htm DYMEX modular modelling of biological organisms. Are you Managing Pest, Weed and Pathogen Problems? Enhanced Risk Assessment, Management and Communication Model with Group’s Ownership Workshops Group’s Expectations Model Specifications Data Collation Model Formulation & Testing Analysis of System Design of Management Strategies Future Plans Identify Research Priorities Collaborative Networks sharing Data & Results Group Training by Involvement

Rat-Hopper model: 

Rat-Hopper model 1. Rice phenology and yield

Slide41: 

Multiple, interactive drivers of global change Multiple clients in human & natural ecosystems Multiple species Responses depend on where you are Responses often involve thresholds Species do not respond in isolation Whole-system impacts Pests ‘peripheral’ Less priority than today’s problems Scarcity of quantitative ecologists Realities of Pest R & D Task greatly exceeds resources

Slide42: 

Global Change R & D Needs Global community needs * Common tools and languages * Synergy from Collaboration and Networking Data for Models to analyse pest problems & to design solutions Generic and hierarchical tools Integrated risk assessments Spatial tools for regional / industry assessments Socio-economic models for policy

Slide43: 

Prevention (reduce propagule pressure) is most effective Plan for Resilience and Adaptability How? Knowledge–based, Adaptive Management Biological solutions are more resilient Sensitivity Analysis plus Scenarios Key Messages for Pest Management

Slide44: 

One pest introduced by humans can cost $100 m or ruin an ecosystem Humans spend $millions on responding to each pest, often unsuccessfully Successful pest control usually relies on insect / pathogen solutions

Slide45: 

One time when humans got lucky

Slide47: 

Scientists do the Easy Things First! Technically possible Avoid too “scary” or “hard” scenarios Value of GCTE Interdisciplinary learning, workshops Networks, data sharing culture

Slide48: 

CONCLUSIONS Humanity needs to change its behavior Confident to Humble (Technology, GCMs..) Product- to Knowledge-based management Static to Nimble & Adaptive management Complacent to Afraid, Very Afraid! Our Real Landlords will not be Benevolent