JM UWA Luncheon Oct2007

Daylight Time and Energy Evidence from an Australian Experiment: 

Daylight Time and Energy Evidence from an Australian Experiment Ryan Kellogg Presentation October 2007 Department of Economics - University of Washington Hendrik Wolff

Daylight Saving Time (DST):A tool for energy conservation?: 

Daylight Saving Time (DST): A tool for energy conservation? Several countries debate about DST: - USA Energy Policy Act of 2005 ”Title I Extends DST by four weeks to reduce energy consumption by the equivalent of 100,000 barrels of oil for each day of the extension.” - Australia, UK, Japan, Korea and others are considering extending DST to curb GHG emissions

We use a quasi-experiment to assess whether extending DST saves electricity: 

We use a quasi-experiment to assess whether extending DST saves electricity 2000 Sydney Olympic Games: - two states in Australia began to observe DST two months earlier than usual Preview of main result: Contrary to previous DST-literature: Extending DST does not save electricity

Slide5: 

“I say it is impossible that people lived so long by the smoky, unwholesome, and enormously expensive light of candles, if we had as much pure light of the sun for nothing.” – Benjamin Franklin, Paris, 1784 –

Slide6: 

“I say it is impossible that people lived so long by the smoky, unwholesome, and enormously expensive light of candles, if we had as much pure light of the sun for nothing.” – Benjamin Franklin, Paris, 1784 – Misallocation causes Paris to consume an additional 64 million pounds of tallow and wax annually.

Slide9: 

Artificial Lighting Sleep

Prior studies find: extending DST into “March” saves electricity by 0.6%-3.5%: 

Prior studies find: extending DST into “March” saves electricity by 0.6%-3.5% Studies are directly used by Governments to decide on DST extensions USA: 1% New Zealand: 3.5% Australia: 1%-3.5% California: 0.6% Ontario, Canada: 2.2% However, studies are based on simulations and extrapolations, rather than empirical evidence

Nixon 1973: Emergency DST Energy Conservation Act: 

Nixon 1973: Emergency DST Energy Conservation Act Observational Study finds 1% savings based on ‘73-’75 DST extension in the USA However… …technology changed …potentially confounded

Yellow: Regions observing DST as of 2006: 

Yellow: Regions observing DST as of 2006

Road Map: 

Road Map Background on the event and graphical results Treatment effect estimation Testing prior DST simulation models Conclusions

Typically 3 states observe DST: 

Typically 3 states observe DST Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Victoria Typically: SA, NSW, and VIC observe DST from October to March VIC

In 2000 NSW and VIC are “treated” with 2 months extended DST: 

In 2000 NSW and VIC are “treated” with 2 months extended DST Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Victoria Typically: SA, NSW, and VIC observe DST from October to March In 2000: NSW and VIC start DST two months earlier VIC

Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy: 

Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Victoria Cited rationales Fewer shadows on the fields improve TV broadcasting Shift visitors between stadia in daylight VIC

Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy: 

Policy change was not prompted by intent to conserve energy Western Australia Queensland South Australia (SA) Northern Territory New South Wales (NSW) Cited rationales Fewer shadows on the fields improve TV broadcasting Shift visitors between stadia in daylight VIC Olympic events confound NSW: International tourism Construction activities  Treated state: VIC, Control state: SA Control State Melbourne Adelaide Treated State

Time Line in 2000: 

Time Line in 2000 August 27: DST starts in VIC September 15 – October 1: Sydney Olympics in NSW October 29: DST starts in SA

Time Line in 2000: 

Time Line in 2000 August 27: DST starts in VIC September 15 – October 1: Sydney Olympics in NSW October 29: DST starts in SA The Olympic events present a potential confound in VIC Increased TV ratings, Carnival events around public mega screens Drop Olympic period from treatment period in VIC VIC: Treatment I VIC: Treatment II

SA (control state)shows no effect of DST extension: 

SA (control state) shows no effect of DST extension Average half hourly electricity demand during the treatment period

Average half hourly electricity demand during the treatment period : 

VIC (treated state) shows regular load pattern in control years Average half hourly electricity demand during the treatment period

VIC 2000shows intra-day shift in electricity load : 

VIC 2000 shows intra-day shift in electricity load

Dataset: 1999-2005 panel of: 

Dataset: 1999-2005 panel of half hourly electricity demand & wholesale prices hourly weather Temperature, Precipitation, Wind, Pressure, Sunshine, Humidity Day of week, school-vacation, holidays, “transition vacation days” Employment, Gross-State-Product, population

“Difference in Differences” Mechanics: 

“Difference in Differences” Mechanics Control structure is two-fold: (a) spatial across states controls for differences between states (b) temporal over years controls for any shock on the national level

Standard DID: 

Standard DID

Augment standard DID model by estimating “triple-DID” Treatment Effect Model: 

Augment standard DID model by estimating “triple-DID” Treatment Effect Model Triple-DID control structure is three-fold: (a) Spatial across states (b) temporal over years (c) temporal within days using early afternoon hours k …12:00-14:30 as “within” controls With triple-DID: we don’t depend on nearby months and Seasonal variations Model robust against shocks affecting the level of any day (demand is function of 1800 variables)

Half hourly treatment effects of extending DST on electricity use: 

Half hourly treatment effects of extending DST on electricity use The estimated effect of extending DST in VIC, disaggregated by half-hour, with 95% confidence intervals. Standard errors are clustered by day.

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Canada (Ontario)

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand USA Canada

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand California Canada USA

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Australia Canada USA California

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand Australia Canada USA California

Testing the Electricity Saving HypothesisPercentage change due to DST: 

Testing the Electricity Saving Hypothesis Percentage change due to DST New Zealand weekdays Canada USA California weekends

Value of results: 

Value of results First quantitative study to show that DST does not decrease electricity consumption, contradicting prior research Australia considers extending DST to cut GHG emissions Can we transfer the results to the U.S.? San Francisco: latitude & climate similar to Melbourne Next we examine the “California Simulation model”

California identifies three benefits of extending DST: 

California identifies three benefits of extending DST Extended DST… (1) …saves non-renewable resources Electricity use decrease (2) …increases consumer welfare Reduction in peak evening demand: price decreases CA benefits up to $1.3 billion annually (3) …helps to avoid extreme events Likelihood of blackout decreases

CEC 2001 Simulation : 

CEC 2001 Simulation

Simulation unable to predict intraday-change in demand: 

Simulation unable to predict intraday-change in demand

Treatment in Victoria 2000 leads to a price spike: 

Treatment in Victoria 2000 leads to a price spike MW

Conclusions I: 

Conclusions I ...none of the “three benefits” of extended DST could be confirmed. The extension: - does not save electricity - increases prices - increases the critical demand spikes …findings are of policy interest since Australia considers re-introducing the 2000-DST-schedule to curb GHG emissions …results suggest U.S. will not benefit from extending DST …extending DST is not a quick fix for energy conservation.

Slide43: 

U.S. Energy Bill of 2005: “If the study does not report adequate savings, Congress should consider to return to the original Daylight Savings Time schedule.” Policy Recommendation: ….Pull out DST legislation from Energy Bills ….Health Benefits? Business? Conclusions II

Penetration trends of air conditioning by state: 

Penetration trends of air conditioning by state

Characteristics of Generators: 

Characteristics of Generators Two Issues: - “Is Real Time Pricing Green?: – Impacts of Demand Variance” (Holland & Mansur, 2004) - Forecasting Error, DST learning

National Electricity Market, Australia: 

National Electricity Market, Australia

Settlement of electricity prices in VIC, NSW, QLD and SA : 

Settlement of electricity prices in VIC, NSW, QLD and SA

 demand  price: 

 demand  price M Tu W Th F Sa Su M T W T F M T W T F ------------- School Vacation ----------

Table 2: Summary statistics of data used from 1999 to 2001, 27 August to 27 October: 

Table 2: Summary statistics of data used from 1999 to 2001, 27 August to 27 October

Selection of the afternoon hours: 

Selection of the afternoon hours

Equator: 

Equator

Slide56: 

Melbourne

Slide57: 

Melbourne

Slide58: 

Sleep Artifical lighting

Slide61: 

Sunshine Hours during Standard Time September, Melbourne

Slide62: 

Sunshine Hours during DST extension September, Melbourne

San Francisco: 

San Francisco

Melbourne: 

Melbourne