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Topics of Asia-Pacific Economics and Politics: A Discussion from Taiwan’s Perspective: 

Topics of Asia-Pacific Economics and Politics: A Discussion from Taiwan’s Perspective 2006 International Affairs Personnel Training Program Daniel Lin Assistant Professor Department of International Affairs Wenzao Ursuline College of Languages DanielLin@mail.wtuc.edu.tw

A Story Starting from North Korea: 

A Story Starting from North Korea

The Place We Live In: 

The Place We Live In

The Enemy/Friend We Must Deal with: 

The Enemy/Friend We Must Deal with

The Asia Pacific : 

The Asia Pacific

The Fundamentals: 

The Fundamentals

China Factor on Taiwan: 

China Factor on Taiwan

Threats of Taiwan’s Economic Security?!: 

Threats of Taiwan’s Economic Security?! Trend between Taiwan and China: Natural integration  economic benefits Economic globalization  weakens role of nation state. However, political rivalry Makes TW to intervene in economic transactions. Makes TW to gauge “economic security.” Makes CN to rely on nationalism and militarism.

Bifurcation of Cross-strait Relations: 

Bifurcation of Cross-strait Relations Economy: increasing trade and investment  bridging the straits, integrating the two societies, and diluting political control Politics: change  widening the strait, dividing or disturbing the societies, and interrupting economic activities.

Political Deadlock: 

Political Deadlock 1949-1978: Beijing  liberate Taiwan; Taipei  recover the Mainland. Late 1970s and early 1980s: Deng  One Country Two Systems; Chiang: Three nos (no contacts, no negotiations, no compromise)

Turning Points: 

Turning Points 1990s: 1995, jiang Zemin  eight policy principles; Lee Teng-hui  private visit to the U.S. 1998: Clinton: three nos (not supporting TI) 1998: Lee, special state-to-state relationship. 2000: The DPP in power. Taiwanization  Chinese nationalism Renewed political confrontation over TI and unification Intensified battle over Taiwan status One of the hot spots for military confrontation

Dynamic Trade and Business: 

Dynamic Trade and Business Before 1979: virtually no commercial ties 1987: lift of martial laws 1993: ARATS + SEF talk in Singapore. 1996: Go slow, be patient (control investment over US$50 million) 2001: mini three links; active opening, effective management 2002: WTO

Trade Trend: 

Trade Trend

Trade Interdependence: 

Trade Interdependence

Business Linkage: 

Business Linkage

Taiwan Investment in the Mainland: 

Taiwan Investment in the Mainland

Where to Invest?: 

Where to Invest?

Impact to the Status Quo: 

Impact to the Status Quo Taiwan as a significant partner of China’s economic development Taiwan as a fatal challenger to China’s subtle sovereignty-identity political equilibrium.

China’s Balancing Act?: 

China’s Balancing Act? Encouraging Taiwan’s economic integration with the Mainland through trade and investment interdependence. Containing Taiwan’s movement toward political independence.

APEC: A Bridge between China and Taiwan: 

APEC: A Bridge between China and Taiwan

Leaders’ Declaration : 

Leaders’ Declaration Advancing Freer Trade Safe and Transparent Asia-Pacific Region: Enhancing Human Security APEC's Progress into the Future

The Bogor Goals?: 

The Bogor Goals? “Free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific by 2010 for developed economies and 2020 for developing economies.” （APEC 的已開發經濟體須在2010 年前完成貿易與投資的開放與自由化 ， 而開發中的經濟體則必須於 2020 年之前達成此目標 ）

Origin and Early Framework: 

Origin and Early Framework 1994 – Bogor （茂物）, Indonesia; announced by the Leaders of Member Economies 1995 – Osaka (大阪）, Japan: Osaka Action Agenda (OAA; 大阪行動綱領 ) A framework for meeting the Bogor Goals Through trade and investment liberalization, business facilitation and sectoral activities Underpinned by policy dialogues, economic and technical cooperation. 1996 – Manila (馬尼拉）, The Philippines: The Manila Action Plan for APEC (MAPA) Outlining the trade and investment liberalization and facilitation measures to reach the Bogor Goals The first Collective and Individual Action Plans How economies will achieve the free trade goals.

EVSL（部門自願提前自由化 ）: 

EVSL（部門自願提前自由化 ） 1997 – Vancouver （溫哥華）, Canada: Early Voluntary Sectoral Liberalization (EVSL) in 15 sectors Environmental goods and services, fish and fish products, toys, forest products, gems and jewellery, chemicals, energy, medical equipment and instruments, telecommunication mutual recognition agreement - MRA-, oilseeds and oilseed products, food, natural and synthetic rubber, fertilizers, automotive, and civil aircraft Individual Action Plans should be updated annually. 1998 - Kuala Lumpur （吉隆坡 ）, Malaysia Agrees on the first nine sectors for EVSL Seeks an EVSL agreement with non-APEC members at the World Trade Organization.

More Consensus and Actions: 

More Consensus and Actions 1999 – Auckland（奧克蘭 ）, New Zealand Commits to paperless trading by 2005 in developed economies and 2010 in developing economies. APEC Business Travel Card scheme is approved A Mutual Recognition Arrangement on Electrical Equipment and a Framework for the Integration of Women in APEC is endorsed. 2000 - Bandar Seri Begawan（斯里百加灣市 ）, Brunei Darussalam（汶萊 ） Establishes an electronic Individual Action Plan (e-IAP;個別行動計畫 ) system Providing IAPs online and commits to the Action Plan for the New Economy Which aiming to triple Internet access throughout APEC region by 2005.

Shanghai Accord（上海約章 ）: 

Shanghai Accord（上海約章 ） 2001 - Shanghai, People's Republic of China Adopts the Shanghai Accord Focuses on broadening the APEC vision Clarifying the roadmap To Bogor Strengthening the implementation mechanism e-APEC Strategy is adopted. Sets out an agenda to Strengthen market structures and institutions Facilitate infrastructure investment and technology for on-line transactions Promote entrepreneurship and human capacity building. APEC's first Counter-Terrorism Statement is issued.

Re-engineer Human Security: 

Re-engineer Human Security 2002 - Los Cabos（洛斯卡沃斯 ）, Mexico: Adopts a Trade Facilitation Action Plan, Policies on Trade and the Digital Economy and Transparency Standards. Second Counter-Terrorism Statement is delivered Adoption of the Secure Trade in the APEC Region (STAR) Initiative.

Trade and Security: 

Trade and Security 2003 – Bangkok（曼谷）, Thailand WTO Doha Development Agenda （杜哈發展議程 ;多邊貿易談判 ） negotiations Complementary aims of bilateral and regional trade agreements, the Bogor Goals and the multilateral trading system under the WTO. The security of the peoples of the Asia-Pacific region. Specific actions to dismantle terrorist groups, eliminate the danger of weapons of mass destruction and confront other security threats. APEC Action Plan on SARS and the Health Security Initiative to further protect personal security. Knowledge-based economies, sound and efficient financial systems, and regional structural reform.

RTAs and FTAs: 

RTAs and FTAs 2004 – Santiago（聖地牙哥）, Chile（智利） A strong statement of support for progress in the WTO Doha Development Agenda Best Practices for RTAs and FTAs （最佳區域貿易安排與自由貿易區範例）, the Santiago Initiative for Expanded Trade and a Data Privacy Framework. Unmistakable resolve" to confront the threat of terrorism and further action in this regard Political commitment to fight corruption and ensure transparency

Busan Roadmap （釜山路線圖 ）: 

Busan Roadmap （釜山路線圖 ） 2005 - Busan, Korea: leaders pledged  Support for the Multilateral Trading System; Strengthening Collective and Individual Actions; Promotion of High-Quality Regional Trade Agreements and Free Trade Agreements (RTAs/FTAs); Busan Business Agenda; A Strategic Approach to Capacity Building; and The Pathfinder Approach

Serious Though: 

Serious Though Back to the Fundamentals

Scenarios of the Future: 

Scenarios of the Future X (TW  TI) vs. X (CN  coercive, forceful Status quo (contested, yet controllable) O (mutual agreement)

Solutions?: 

Solutions? “Military force is not used by governments toward other governments within the region, or on the issues, when complex interdependence prevails.” (From Power and Interdependence, Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S Nye, 1977, p. 25)

The End!: 

The End! Comments are welcomed.