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The US-EU Race for Leadership of S&T: Qualitative and Quantitative Indicators: 

The US-EU Race for Leadership of S&T: Qualitative and Quantitative Indicators Duane Shelton and Geoff Holdridge WTEC, Inc. Baltimore, Maryland, USA To be presented at the Ninth International Conference on Scientometrics and Informetrics, Beijing, August 25, 2003

Acknowledgements To:: 

Acknowledgements To: And 400-plus expert panelists, thousands of foreign hosts.

Purpose of Paper: 

Purpose of Paper Both the US and the EU have goals for world leadership in S&T Methods of evaluating leadership Quantitative data on leadership -- from EU, OECD, NSF, ISI, Eurostat, et al. Qualitative data on leadership -- from our own WTEC studies Conclusions: Who is ahead, and what are the trends?

I. US Goals for S&T Leadership: 

I. US Goals for S&T Leadership Top goal: “Maintaining world leadership in science, mathematics, and engineering...” (President Truman, 1950) “The United States is today the undisputed world leader in science and technology.” (U.S. National Academy of Sciences) But, when we sent American peer reviewers abroad, one could indeed dispute. Actually, Bush Administration has not yet made a global statement of S&T goals

EU Goals for S&T Leadership: 

EU Goals for S&T Leadership Make Europe the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010 (Lisbon Council 2000) Restructure R&D into a European Research Area (2000) Increase EU spending on R&D to 3% of GDP by 2010 Framework Program 6 provides 17.5 billion Euros for 2002-2006

II. Quantitative Methods: 

II. Quantitative Methods Most input measures like total investments in R&D favor the U.S. Here the focus will be on output indicators, which are a better measure of S&T leadership: Papers Citations Patents New PhD production Nobel Prizes High-tech market share Overall trade balance

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Output Indicator-1: Publications in the World’s Leading Journals Source: ISI 2002. China = PRC + HK + Taiwan.

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Source: ISI, 2002 EU Surges Ahead of the US in Publications

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Disciplines Led by the EU, U.S., and AP Region. Metric is papers in the world’s leading journals. Data from ISI, which retains copyright.

Output Indicator-2: Relative Impacts: 

Output Indicator-2: Relative Impacts Technical papers usually have a dozen or more citations to other papers in their references or footnotes. This method, originated by Eugene Garfield at ISI, counts citations to a particular paper from others. Influential papers have lots of such citations. This parameter is often normalized by the average number of citations in a field or country to get the “relative impact” of: paper, researcher, institute, or whole country

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Switzerland leads the world; U. S. leads world in only 4 of 20 S&T fields on ISI CD US is Ahead of EU, Some Countries Are Gaining

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But, Americans Tend to Cite Mostly American Papers

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These are inventions patented all three offices: U.S., EU and Japan. Source: (OECD, 2002). The U. S. leads the EU, but not by much. Output Indicator-3: International Patents

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Source: NSB, 2002. EU (Part) includes only Germany, France, and the UK. With all EU countries, the European curve is far ahead at 39,021 in 1999. Output Indicator-4: Production of S&E PhDs

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Output Indicator–5: Residence of Nobel Prize Winners in Science (Physics, Chemistry and Medicine) The U. S. is far ahead of the EU, but…

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Birthplace of Nobel Prize Winners in Science The EU is becoming more competitive in this metric.

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Output Indicator-6: High-Tech Trade Surplus and Market Share

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Output Indicator-6 High-Tech Market Share; Fields Where U.S. is Strong

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Output Indicator-6 High-Tech Market Share Fields where EU is Strong

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In 2002 the largest deficit was with China ($103 billion). It was $82 billion with the EU. Output Indicator-7 Overall International Trade Surplus, U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods was $470 Billion in 2002

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US vs. EU in the International Market Place

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A Knowledge-Based Indicator: Internet Growth is Leveling Off Since the EU goals include leading in knowledge-based economy, Internet usage is a relevant indicator

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U.S. Is Far Ahead, But Its Growth Stopped in 2002, Rapid Increase Continues in EU Data: www.isc.org

III. Qualitative Methods: ITRI International Technology Assessments: 

III. Qualitative Methods: ITRI International Technology Assessments ITRI conducts public studies of S&T abroad using study tours by experts for: Assessment of status and trends relative to US Technology transfer Finding opportunities for international cooperation Started by the US in 1983 when Japanese captured high-tech international markets and increased investments in R&D

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Time Line for a WTEC Single-Area Study

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An WTEC Delegation of American Engineers But the U.S. is a very diverse place.

Sample WTEC Findings: 

Sample WTEC Findings

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Fields Which US Does Not Lead

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More Fields Not Led by the US

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  [1] Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries

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    [     Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries--Continued

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Table I S&T Output Indicators IV. Conclusions: Who is Leading Overall?

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    Table I S&T Output Indicators--Continued

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Conclusion: Who leads the World, the U.S. or EU?

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Does the U.S. or EU lead in S&T? (More Metrics). Thus, the results are mixed *The EU is not far behind either nation.

For more information:: 

For more information: Sleeping Tiger? Japan's Continuing Advances in S&T, R. D. Shelton and G. M. Holdridge, Conference on Japanese Information in Science, Technology, and Commerce, Library of Congress, Washington, July, 1997. http://www.itri.loyola.edu/papers/jistc797/welcome.htm American Leadership of Science and Technology: Reality or Myth?, R. D. Shelton, J. B. Mooney and G. M. Holdridge, Science and Technology Indicators 2000, Leiden. http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/myth.pdf WTEC Website http://www.wtec.org Shelton Website http://itri2.org/s/ Includes this paper in text form and slideshow.

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For more info http://itri2.org/ITRInews/