Barry Nocks Upstate 12 04

Initial Findings of a Growth Impact Study for Upstate South Carolina: 

Initial Findings of a Growth Impact Study for Upstate South Carolina Dr. Barry Nocks Clemson University Center for Community Growth & Change Development Impact Analysis Class

South Carolina will grow by more than 1 million by 2025; what about the Upstate?: 

South Carolina will grow by more than 1 million by 2025; what about the Upstate?

Upstate Projections: 

Upstate Projections Today: 1.22 Million People 62.2% Urban 527,274 Housing Units 67.3% Single Family 2025: 1.56 Million People* 340,000 more people, or 28% growth rate 54.8% of growth in Greenville and Spartanburg Counties 659,412 Housing Units *according to SC Budget & Control Board

Projections – Retail Space: 

Projections – Retail Space Additional Needs for 2025: 6.75 million square feet (or 155 acres) 67 (100,000 s.f.) neighborhood strip centers, or 5.5 Haywood Malls Source: Clemson University Center for Real Estate Development Haywood Mall Vicinity - Greenville

Projections – Office Space: 

Projections – Office Space Additional Needs for 2025 (continued) 6.1 million square feet (or 140 acres) 6 (40-story) office buildings at 1 million square feet each, or 2x the amount of office space currently in downtown Greenville Downtown Greenville

Projections – Industrial Space: 

Projections – Industrial Space Additional Needs for 2025: 27.1 million square feet (or 622 acres) 11-12 new BMW plants Equivalent in size to 135 Wal-Mart Supercenters (averaging 200,000 sf) BMW Manufacturing Plant – Greer Oconee County Commerce Center

Projections – Hotel Rooms: 

Projections – Hotel Rooms Additional Needs for 2025: 7,111 Hotel Rooms = 71 new hotels (assuming average of 100 rooms per hotel) Poinsett Hotel - Greenville Holiday Inn Express - Anderson

Upstate Growth is Necessary & Desirable: 

Upstate Growth is Necessary & Desirable Economic diversification Jobs – growth in numbers and quality Tax base – support of quality services Cultural growth & diversity We seek to maintain our quality of life while encouraging growth

How have we grown?: 

How have we grown? Greenville-Spartanburg is 5th most sprawling area (Considering factors such as: miles driven, traffic delays, air pollution, proximity of homes to jobs/ schools, population density) Sprawl Rankings Riverside-San Bernardino (LA), CA Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, NC Raleigh-Durham, NC Atlanta, GA Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Charlotte – Atlanta – Greenville: 

Charlotte – Atlanta – Greenville

Slide11: 

Virginia Study (D. Ware, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998) *1999 population estimates by CACI International, Inc. based on 1990 US Census Population Density Along the I-85 Corridor # people per square mile

Selected Impacts of 340,000 more people: 

Selected Impacts of 340,000 more people Development Impacts Land Use Transportation Infrastructure Parks and Open Space Education Public Safety Direct costs of serving new residents Based on population projections from the SC Office of Research and Statistics

Land Use: 

Land Use

Land Use: 

Land Use 1992 Source: USGS Land Cover Data

Land Use: 

Land Use Land consumption can be projected on the basis of previous land development patterns and future population 2 scenarios presented: Assume average densities consistent with pattern of development over the past 50 years (land consumption at less than ½ the rate of population growth) Assume land consumption rates consistent with pattern of development over the past 10 years (land consumption at up to 6x the rate of population growth)

Land Use -- Total Urbanized Area: 

Land Use -- Total Urbanized Area impacts vary under the two land development scenarios: 2025 2050 1 (past rate) 70% 120% 2 (1990s rate) 230% 700%

Transportation: 

Transportation

Transportation - a key for growth: 

Transportation - a key for growth The Upstate is projected to grow by almost 30% by 2025 and by another 30% by 2050 This will have a significant impact on the transportation infrastructure in the Upstate, with unknown effect of gas supply and mass transit Construction of new infrastructure as well as improving existing highways will be a challenge Meeting EPA pollution standards will be a challenge with growth

SC DOT Cost Estimates: 

SC DOT Cost Estimates Total Statewide Transportation needs through 2022 identified at $56.87 billion Road related needs: $47.57 billion Upstate needs at 30% of total: $14.27 billion Source: SCDOT Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2002

Water & Sewer Infrastructure: 

Water & Sewer Infrastructure

Infrastructure – Water treatment: 

Infrastructure – Water treatment Assumptions: ¹A 10% decrease in percentage of population on individual wells from 1990 Census Data ²151 gallons per capita per day (Source – Spartanburg Water System) °$1,330,000 per million gallons per day of treatment capacity. Capital costs have been adjusted by 3% annually for inflation (Source – Spt. Water System)

Infrastructure – Water treatment: 

Infrastructure – Water treatment The Water Treatment Plant on Lake Hartwell treats up to 32 MGD with an estimated cost of $42 million and supplies wholesale water to the City of Anderson, the City of Clemson, surrounding towns, and water districts The Upstate will require approximately 3 more similar facilities by the year 2025

Infrastructure – Wastewater treatment: 

Infrastructure – Wastewater treatment Assumptions: ¹A 10% decrease in percentage of population on septic systems from 1990 Census Data ²100 gallons of wastewater produced per capita per day (Source – Western Carolina Regional Sewer Authority) °Capital Cost: $6.5 million/1 million gallons per day of wastewater treatment capacity. Capital costs have been adjusted by 3% annually for inflation (Source – Western Carolina Regional Sewer Authority)

Infrastructure – Wastewater treatment: 

Infrastructure – Wastewater treatment The construction for the $30 million upgrade to expand the Lower Reedy wastewater treatment plant serving growth to the south of Greenville is complete.  It has been designed to meet permit requirements and expand plant capacity to 7.5 MGD The Upstate will require approximately 7 more similar facilities by the year 2025

Slide25: 

Parks & Recreation

Parks & Recreation – Quality of Life: 

Parks & Recreation – Quality of Life Recreation Center- Anderson, SC Parks provide refuge from the chaos of daily life Passive and active recreation Trails, athletic facilities, play structures, pools, sport courts, and wildlife areas Reduction of urban heat islands Public gathering space Leisure and community facilities With the projected increase of 338,538 people by 2025, demand for parks and recreational space is sure to increase Only active parks included here

Parks & Recreation: 

Parks & Recreation Projected costs are rough estimates – Actual costs depend on topography, amenities, site improvements, land acquisition, construction, and selected materials Estimates are an average of construction costs for recently constructed comparable parks Park Amenities Are Expensive!! Example: Play Structure = $35,000 Source: City of Greenville Park and Recreation Dept.

Parks & Recreation: 

Parks & Recreation 3 Key Types of Parks Mini Parks ($80,000 ea.) - 1 acre each Serving population up to 2,500 Equipped play areas, benches, open space, landscaping, and optional picnic tables Neighborhood Parks ($282,780 ea.) - 5 acres each Serving population up to 5,000 Mini Park facilities, plus recreational buildings, paved multi-purpose courts, senior citizen area, picnic area, open play areas, landscaping Community Parks ($1,850,000 ea.) - 20 acres each Serving population up to 10,000 Neighborhood Park facilities, plus pools, softball/baseball fields, tennis courts, play areas, picnic areas, passive and active recreation areas, recreation building, and parking Source: Florida Dept. of Environmental Protection, Outdoor Recreation in Florida, 1994.

Parks & Recreation: 

Parks & Recreation Cost for additional parks: 169 Mini Parks (projected demand= 169 acres) Average cost of Mini Park = ($80,000) ($80,000) x 169 Mini Parks = $18.7 Million1 135 Neighborhood Parks (projected demand= 677 acres) Average cost of Neighborhood Park = ($282,780) ($282,780) x 135 Neighborhood Parks = $53 Million1 34 Community Parks (projected demand= 677 acres) Average cost of Community Park = ($1,850,000) ($1,850,000) x 34 Community Parks = $86.6 Million1 Total cost estimate for active parks: $158.3 Million1 (Does not include any existing unmet demand) 1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Parks & Recreation: 

Parks & Recreation Abbeville County- $1.8 Million (18 acres) 2 Mini Parks-$213,000 (2 acres) 2 Neighborhood Parks-$602,000 (8 acres) 0.4 Community Parks-$984,000 (8 acres) Anderson County-$17.7 Million (166 acres) 18 Mini Parks-$2.1 Million (18 acres) 15 Neighborhood Parks-$5.9 Million (74 acres) 4 Community Parks-$9.7 Million (74 acres) Greenville County-$57.4 Million (536 acres) 60 Mini Parks-$6.8 Million (60 acres) 48 Neighborhood Parks- $19.2 Million (238 acres) 12 Community Parks-$31.4 Million (238 acres) Pickens County- $20.9 Million (195 acres) 22 Mini Parks-$2.5 Million (22 acres) 17 Neighborhood Parks-$6.9 Million (87 acres) 4 Community Parks-$11.5 Million (87 acres) Walhalla Soccer Field Impacts on Selected Counties 1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Education: 

Education

Education: 

Education Source: SC Department of Education

Education: 

Education 1Assumes that the current distribution of population across age groups will remain consistent to 2025. 290 ft2/K-5 Student, 120 ft2/Middle Student, 150 ft2/High (Source: Edwards, Mary. 2003. “Community Guide to Development Impact Analysis.” University of Wisconsin) 324 students/K-5 Classroom, 25/Middle, 26/High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”) 41 teacher/22 K-5 students, 1/20 Middle, 1/19 High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)

Education: 

Education Comparisons Additional Elementary School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 30 additional Clemson Elementary Schools (46 classrooms), or 68 additional Walhalla Elementary Schools (approx. 500 students) Clemson Elementary

Education: 

Education Comparisons Additional Middle School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 15 Additional Greer Middle Schools (921 students), or 22 Additional Brewer Middle Schools (618 students) Brewer Middle School, Greenwood

Education: 

Education Comparisons Additional High School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 8 Additional Easley High Schools (68 classrooms); or 12 Additional Greenville High Schools (46 classrooms) Easley High School

Education: 

Education Additional Teachers Future growth in the Upstate by 2025 is estimated to generate a need for nearly 3,000 additional teachers at estimated additional annual salary costs of nearly $199 million1 1Costs adjusted to 2025 dollars

Education: 

Education Construction Costs Future growth in the Upstate is estimated to generate a need for $735– $919 Million1 in new or expanded facilities construction by 2025, not including replacements to existing facilities Walhalla High School and Football Field 1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Public Safety: 

Public Safety

Public Safety—police, fire, ems: 

Public Safety—police, fire, ems Planning Standards Projected public safety needs follow population trends The amount of service required for a certain amount of population has been determined through recognized planning standards For example, there should be 2.0 police personnel per 1,000 population Spartanburg Central Fire Station

Public Safety: 

Public Safety Personnel1 2025: $89,251,600 Source: BLS average public safety personnel wage estimates before paycheck deductions. Vehicles2 2025: $31,480,600 Source: International Association of Fire Chiefs & Various Newspaper Outlets Facilities2 2025: $68,700,000 Source: International Association of Fire Chiefs & Various Newspaper Outlets Upstate Total Projected Costs Anderson Main Fire Station Walhalla Fire Station 1Adjusted to 2025 dollars 2Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Conclusions & Future Steps: 

Conclusions & Future Steps

Development Impacts of2025 population growth withSC DOT Estimates: 

Development Impacts of 2025 population growth with SC DOT Estimates 1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation 2 Adjusted to 2025 dollars

Initial Range of Estimates: 

Initial Range of Estimates Basic Infrastructure needs for 2025 are estimated to be: $21.3 Billion Cutting level of service in half for non-transportation only reduces value to minimum of $20.7 Billion Compare this to Rutgers study of SC infrastructure needs of $57 Billion by 2020—30% of this = $17.1 Billion

Conclusions & Future Steps: 

Conclusions & Future Steps This report only represents a portion of the costs. Additional costs would include: Distribution of population/services e.g., Water and sewer line installation costs by linear foot (less density = greater costs) or road distances Facility maintenance costs Costs of retro-fitting and updating existing structures Identification of deficiencies in levels of service less conservative population projections Yet the costs are significant: 15 Billion in capital >> $362 Million annual operating 21 Billion total costs House, Clemson, SC Cul-de-sac, Lake Hartwell

Conclusions & Future Steps: 

Conclusions & Future Steps Significant growth will occur in the 10 County Upstate over the next 20 years If growth patterns of the 1990s continue, the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson MSA will look like Charlotte and Atlanta We can make our own choices for the future; we will pay for future needs Duke Power Plant Walhalla, SC House, Lake Hartwell Clemson Bi-Lo

Another region’s approach: 

Another region’s approach We can learn from other experiences, particularly from areas that are similar in scale and political outlook We do have choices—not to act is an invitation to continued movement to Charlotte and Atlanta

Slide48: 

Oconee County Courthouse, Walhalla, SC Ram Cat Alley, Seneca, SC Mobile Home, Walhalla, SC Development Entry, Clemson, SC