bigsky review

Slide1: 

Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Regional Partnership www.bigskyco2.org Annual Program Review Meeting November 16-17, 2004

Slide2: 

Focal States: Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming

Slide3: 

Initial Partners: Montana State University-Bozeman University of Idaho Boise State University South Dakota School of Mines and Technology Texas A&M University Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Los Alamos National Laboratory EnTech Strategies and New Directions National Carbon Offset Coalition Inland Northwest Regional Alliance States of Montana, Governor’s Office Nez Perce Tribe The Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes

Slide4: 

New Coverage: Wyoming New Partners (confirmed): Montana Bureau of Mines and Technology University of Wyoming/ WY Carbon Sequestration Advisory Committee ID Carbon Sequestration Advisory Committee/ ID Soil Conservation Service Montana Department of Environmental Quality Western Governors’ Association

Slide5: 

New Partners (not yet confirmed) Puget Sound Energy Colstrip “Big Four” Ducks Unlimited, US WY Department of Environmental Quality Jackson Hole Center for Global Affairs Sempra (CA, ID) Plasma, INC (MT) Mt Rural Electric Cooperatives Eastern Montana Economic Coalition MRED Yellowstone Business Partners

Slide6: 

Collaborations USDA and CASMGS Canada -- BIOCAP CA China –Shanxi Province IOGCC Norway

Slide7: 

External Advisory Committee Mission: Provide input on direction and progress of Phase I activities; Facilitiate transfer of research findings and information with constituencies; and Provide advice and direction with respect to Phase II Members: Dr. Anhar Karimjee Mr. Ned Leonard Mr. Michael Jones (not confirmed) Dr. Maurice Mausbach (not confirmed) Dr. Robert C. Harriss (not confirmed)

Slide8: 

Oct 2003 Outreach - action plan for carbon sequestration implementation Nov 2003 Outreach - web site (to Jun 2005) Nov 2003 Outreach - proceedings from innovation sessions/workshop (ongoing to Mar 2005) Mar 2004 Advanced Concepts - planning standards, protocols and contracting options ready to implement within the region in Phase II (ongoing to Mar 05) Sep 2004 Terrestrial Sequestration - data collection summaries for rangeland Nov 2004 Advanced Concepts - contracting and project implementation handbook Nov 2004 Terrestrial Sequestration - literature review and data collection report (changed from Mar 04 to include Wyoming) Dec 2004 Advanced Concepts - measurement, monitoring and verification technology assessment report

Slide9: 

Jan 2005 Geological Sequestration, GHG source and infrastructure characterization - report on infrastructure data compilation and analysis (changed from July 04 to include Wyoming) Jan 2005 Geological Sequestration - report and action plan on the evaluation of geologic sinks and pilot project deployment (changed from July 04 to include Wyoming) Jan 2005 Terrestrial Sequestration - action plan report and infrastructure needs for enhancing terrestrial sequestration sinks (changed from Jul 04 to include Wyoming) Mar 2005 Geological Sequestration - report on technology needs (changed from Nov 2004 to include Wyoming) Mar 2005 Terrestrial Sequestration - manuscript on carbon budget and analyses/GIS database (changed from Sept 04 to include Wyoming) Mar 2005 Terrestrial Sequestration - report on the interface between C-lock and producer decision support framework Mar 2005 Terrestrial Sequestration - volume table development

Slide10: 

Mar 2005 Advanced Concepts – report on results of best production practice for soil C sequestration Jun 2005 Terrestrial Sequestration - report on evaluation of terrestrial sinks (to include Wyoming – same time frame) Jun 2005 Advanced Concepts – report on the feasibility of mineralization trapping in the Snake River Plain Basin. Jun 2005 Advanced Concepts – report on common methodology for assessing tradeoffs among carbon sinks. Jun 2005 Advanced Concepts – overall assessment and evaluation report and workshop proceedings on advanced concepts for geological and terrestrial sequestration. Jun 2005 Outreach – a summary of public comments.

Slide11: 

GIS Paul Rich Los Alamos National Laboratory Randy Lee Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Karen Updegraff, Maribeth Price, and Rick Clawges South Dakota School of Mines and Technology Richard Aspinall and Leslie Jones Montana State University

Big Sky Geological GIS: 

Big Sky Geological GIS INEEL Lead Focal States: Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming Goal: assess geologic sequestration potential of sedimentary and volcanic basins (deep saline aquifers, depleted oil/gas reservoirs, deep unminable coal beds, mafic/rock hosted fresh aquifers) First Year: develop GIS database structure; identify sources of data; begin populating database Second Year: complete populating database; deliver data for placement on server; use data to determine geological sequestration potential

Big Sky Terrestrial GIS: 

Big Sky Terrestrial GIS SDSMT Lead Goal: assess terrestrial sequestration potential, based on evaluation of sources and sinks First Year: develop GIS database structure; identify sources of data; begin populating database Second Year: complete populating database; deliver data for placement on server; use data to determine terrestrial sequestration potential

Terrestrial Base Data: 

Terrestrial Base Data Political: states, counties, cities, townships Demographic: population density, urban areas, metropolitan statistical areas Environmental: fire perimeters 2000 and 2003 (MT) Hydrologic: rivers, streams, lakes, wetlands, dams Land management: Land ownership, national forests, Indian reservations, National Wildlife Refuges, National Forests Transportation: roads, railroads

Sources: 

Sources Point locations for major utility and industrial emitters (SD complete, MT, ID, and WY in progress) Idaho Montana South Dakota Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 4 6 8 Major Categories (> 0.5 MMTCE)

Terrestrial Sinks: 

Terrestrial Sinks Climate Climate divisions (polygons) Cooperative weather stations (points) Summary for cooperative weather stations 1895-2003 Tillage (CTIC) by acre by county for 1989 and 2000 (includes CRP and method) Soils STATSGO soil polygons (state level) SSURGO soil grids (county level) 30m grids; Sand, silt, clay percents and bulk density; not all counties Forests Forest C stocks/fluxes, 1997 Land Cover (National Land Cover Data) Categorical data 30m grids Estimates made of land cover percentages in each county

Terrestrial Carbon Baseline: 

Terrestrial Carbon Baseline Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent per Hectare

Big Sky GIS Perspective: 

Big Sky GIS Perspective Geologic and Terrestrial Data Coordination Between Partnerships Links with NATCARB National Carbon Cyberinfrastructure

Slide22: 

Geologic Sequestration Robert W. Smith and Nathan P. Erickson University of Idaho Travis L. McLing Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Warren Barrash and William P. Clement Boise State University John P. Kaszuba Los Alamos National Laboratory

Geologic Sequestration Objectives: 

Geologic Sequestration Objectives Evaluate geologic sequestration potential of sedimentary and unconventional mafic volcanic basins in Northern Rockies and Great Plains Region Favorable and worthy of further consideration Unfavorable Insufficient information to classify Identify potential pilot-scale sequestration site(s)

USGS 1995National Oil and Gas Assessment: 

USGS 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment

Available Information: 

Available Information Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission Lithology and Location of wells Pressure and Temperature Cores: Porosity, Permeability, and Saturation Water Chemistry Montana Geological Society Data by oil field Montana Board of Oil and Gas Conservation Lithology and Location of wells Idaho – no single data source USGS Reports, Technical and Geologic Papers, INEEL, and Geothermal Exploration Reports

Organization of Database: 

Organization of Database Access Database Converted to a Geodatabase in GIS Files contained in GDB Well Location and Lithology Water Analysis Pressure and Temperature Cores: Porosity, Permeability, and Saturation

Geologic Sequestration: 

Geologic Sequestration Disposal of CO2 in deep geologic formations Depleted oil and gas reservoirs Saline aquifers Deep coal beds Mafic rocks Sequestration Processes Hydrodynamic trapping  Seal and Phase Solubility trapping Mineral trapping

Mineral TrappingXu, Apps and Pruess (2004) : 

Mineral Trapping Xu, Apps and Pruess (2004) Fixed CO2 pressure of 260 bars

Southwest IdahoMafic Rock Example: 

Southwest Idaho Mafic Rock Example

Normalized Mineralogy: 

Normalized Mineralogy Snake River Plain Basalt

Model Conditions: 

Model Conditions Porosity  12.5 % 6.25% supercritical CO2 6.25% groundwater Pressure  200 bars (2 km hydrostatic load) Temperature  40 oC Super critical CO2 density  821 kg m-3 Relative reactions rates from “literature” rate law Calibrated to estimated basalt reaction rate of 150 mg L-1 yr-1 (Roback et al. 2001)

Reaction Rate Model: 

Reaction Rate Model k+ Forward Rate Constant A Surface Area aH+ Hydrogen ion activity (pH) Q Ion Activity Quotient K Equilibrium Constant

Hydrodynamic, Solubility, & Mineral TrappingMafic Volcanic Rocks: 

Hydrodynamic, Solubility, & Mineral Trapping Mafic Volcanic Rocks

Summary: 

Summary Hydrodynamic, solubility and mineral trapping contribute to long-term storage of CO2 Relative importance of mineral trapping is a function of rock type For mafic rocks, mineral trapping is dominate mechanism after ~150 years Mineral trapping eliminates risk of leakage

Monitoring Issues: 

Monitoring Issues Geophysical Method Property measured Acquisition Geometry Information about subsurface Interpretation Physical Properties Sensitivity to parameters of interest

Geophysical Monitoring: 

Geophysical Monitoring Time-lapse imaging Acquire data over time Pre-injection Post-injection Compare to baseline image Very sensitive

Methods: 

Methods Seismic Wave type P-waves S-waves Geometry Surface reflection VSP Crosshole tomography Electromagnetic (EM) Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) – zero frequency EM Electromagnetic imaging – low frequency EM

Slide38: 

Terrestrial Sequestration Susan Capalbo, John Antle, Perry Miller Montana State University Pat Zimmerman South Dakota School of Mines &Tech Jerry Stuth Texas A&M Dick Benson LANL Ted Dodge National Carbon Offset Coalition

Slide39: 

Terrestrial Sequestration Component Bridge to Geological sequestration Technical potential Economic potential - finding those elusive supply curves for soil carbon Regional, aggregate analysis in support of policies for GHG reductions Producer decision-support framework(s) Pilot studies for carbon trading MMV technologies Collaboration with USDA, EPA International transferability Risk assessment framework in conjunction with advanced concepts

Slide40: 

Highlights Rangeland project: MT, ID, SD 31.5 million hectares (state, private, reservations) classification: moderate potential -- 21 million hectares high potential – 10 million hectares potentials based on precipitation, MLRA, land tenure, cover type assessed in conjunction with USDA/NRCS (Joel Brown)

Slide41: 

Sampling units (red lines) used in spatial cross tabulation for Montana. Sampling units represent intersection of MLRA, climatic potential, land tenure, and land cover.

Slide42: 

Montana AND Big Sky Region Totals (hectares) High Climatic Potential Indian Reservations 476,300 1,932,096 Private or Other Non-Federal 1,629,173 8,347,725 Moderate Climatic Potential Indian Reservations 1,518,059 3,098,461 Private or Other Non-Federal 12,847,170 18,155,895 Low Climatic Potential Indian Reservations 77   77 Private or Other Non-Federal 82,745 94,380 Totals 16,470,702 31,534,178 Use this information in economic analysis of cost of sequestering a ton of carbon

Slide43: 

Economic Project or Projects Leverage with funding from USDA/CASMGS and USAID Key Factors in Ag Soil C Sequestration: Spatial Heterogeneity Carbon rates vary due to bio-physical conditions (soils, climate) Opportunity costs vary spatially due to factors affecting productivity and profitability soils & climate production practices farm-specific management factors (experience, education, attitudes, etc.) prices (location)

Slide44: 

Carbon supply curve derived from area between 0 and P under density function

Slide45: 

C oc f(oc) C = A · c · 0P f(oc) doc P0 C0 Spatial Distribution of Opportunity Cost and Carbon Supply Curve 0 Cmax

Suite of Models: 

Suite of Models Central US analysis Montana MLRA scale Field/farm scale

Slide48: 

Preliminary Results for Central U.S. Preliminary estimates for Central U.S. region indicate that supply is elastic at low C prices, approaches maximum at $100/ton

Slide50: 

Soil Levels Predicted by the Century Model for Cropping Systems in Montana

Slide51: 

Terrestrial Carbon Baseline Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent per Hectare

Slide53: 

Metric Tons Carbon per hectare $10 per Ton of C

Slide54: 

Pilot studies: Golden Triangle of MT Perry Miller, Ross Brickelmeyer Rick Engel, Montana State University

Slide55: 

Methods Field studies – measure change in SOC as change from conventional tillage to no till Work with actual producers Bottom line: 0.13 - 0.4 t C/ha/yr

Slide56: 

Carbon Sequestration Potential in North Central Montana 1.3 M ha cropland in yellow triangle Estimated: .4MMTC/yr Q: How compare with Modeling Amounts? A: Within 10% (high side)

Slide57: 

Education & Outreach Pamela Tomski EnTech Strategies, LLC Montana State University

Slide58: 

Task Deliverables Action Plan Web Site Poster Fact Sheet Workshops, Symposia, Roundtables CO2 Networks

Slide59: 

What We Have Learned Climate change is 800 lb gorilla Sequestration associated with terrestrial General interest in concept; no overt hostility Questions about permanence/safety Economic development matters a lot

Slide60: 

Approach: Year 1 Materials Development Action Plan Web Site (www.bigskyco2.org) Poster Fact Sheets

Slide61: 

Discussions with Key Decision Makers, State and Community Leaders State Carbon Sequestration Advisory Committees Environmental NGOs Tribal Council Leaders Economic Development Groups Departments of Environmental Quality and EPA Establish Network to Disseminate Information Access to about 800 people

Slide62: 

Approach: Year 2 Establish CO2 Networks Workshops/Symposia Web Site Enhancements Expand Links to Site Bulletin Board Incorporate GIS Student Research Paper Contest Utilize Listserv Network to Report on Progress Broaden News Coverage International

Slide63: 

Keeping Score: Year 1 Presentations: 27 Poster Sessions: 3 External Meetings: 22 Workshops/Symposia: 1 News Articles: 6

Slide64: 

Upcoming Scheduled Events Idaho Carbon Sequestration Advisory Committee: Dec 9 Tribal Carbon Sequestration Forestry Workshop: Jan 11-12 Tribal Ag Sequestration Workshop: Jan 13-14 5th North West Harvesting Energy Conference: Jan 20-21 E. Montana Economic Development Coalition: Jan 20 Electric Utilities Environmental Conference: Jan 24-26 Montanans for Responsible Energy Development: April 2005

The National Carbon Offset Coalition: 

The National Carbon Offset Coalition 8 non-profit resource conservation organizations Technical/financial support from federal (EPA, NRCS), state (conservation districts, forestry agencies) and tribal organizations Goal: create an administrative framework to encourage private and tribal landowners to participate in a future carbon credit market.

Institutional Approach: 

Institutional Approach Working through local organizations to reach landowners and facilitate carbon sink projects Assisting with marketing carbon sequestration units (CSU’s) resulting from projects Developing a Portfolio Benefit of large numbers Providing credibility and stability Managing long term obligations