WillottPop2006

Human Population Trends 2006 update: 

Human Population Trends 2006 update Elizabeth Willott The University of Arizona © 2006 Willott@u.arizona.edu

Just for Fun: 

Northwest Mutual’s Longevity Game: http://www.nmfn.com/tn/learnctr--lifeevents--longevity How long do they predict you’ll live? How much is within your control? Just for Fun

Slide3: 

Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970’s the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.” p. xi

Slide4: 

Obtaining Data: Key Sources Most statistics, unless otherwise indicated, are from one or more of the following: US Census: International Data http://www.census.gov • CIA World Factbook 2006 http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook • UN Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/

Slide5: 

The reason for the problem? We became highly successful at controlling disease and death.

Slide6: 

Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 “Medical science, with its efficient public health programs, has been able to depress the death rate with astonishing rapidity and at the same time drastically increase the birth rate; healthier people have more babies.” (p.32)

Slide7: 

DDT, an insecticide, worked effectively in reducing malaria in many developing countries. E.g., Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) Note: this is not death rate due to malaria, but total death rate. Source: Ehrlich. The Population Bomb, 1971, p.16

Slide8: 

RESULT: Many more babies since women lived through child-bearing age. Also, Potential for many, many more babies since children did not die and instead grew to reproductive age.

Slide9: 

Simple basic ecology: Remove the predators (in this case the micropredators such as microbial diseases) and the prey increase.

Slide10: 

Net increase in a population is due to: • births, B= Birth rate • immigration, I= Immigration rate • emigration, E= Emigration rate • deaths, D= Death rate dN/dt = (B + I) - (E + D) If we consider the world population then dN/dt = Birthrate - Deathrate For more info: EO Wilson, WH Bossart, A primer of population ecology, c1971, Sinauer Associates. NJ Gotelli, A primer of ecology, c1995, Sinauer Associates.

Slide11: 

In classic population ecology, If, for any given time period, Births > Deaths then Population will always be increasing, And, IF Birth Rate and Death Rate are constants, THEN, the population size is given by an exponential equation.

An Exponential Equation, like y = 2x, or, in this case Nf= Ni x 1.5x: 

An Exponential Equation, like y = 2x, or, in this case Nf= Ni x 1.5x Was, or is, human population like this?

Slide13: 

Human Population to 1960

Slide14: 

Human Population to 2005 Source: UN Population Figures http://esa.un.org/unpp/

Slide15: 

Projection and Reality

Slide16: 

Projection and Reality How is the gap best explained? What’s happened to • Overall rate? • Birth rate? • Death rate?

World Population (in billions): 

World Population (in billions) 1900 1.65 1910 1.75 1920 1.86 1930 2.07 1940 2.30 1950 2.52 1960 3.02 1970 3.70 1980 4.44 1990 5.27 2000 6.06 2005 6.46 http://esa.un.org/unpp/

World Population (in billions): 

World Population (in billions) 1900 1.65 % increase 1910 1.75 ((1.75/1.65)-1) x 100 1920 1.86 1930 2.07 1940 2.30 1950 2.52 1960 3.02 1970 3.70 1980 4.44 1990 5.27 2000 6.06 2005 6.46 http://esa.un.org/unpp/

World Population (in billions): 

World Population (in billions) 1900 1.65 % increase 1910 1.75 6.1 1920 1.86 6.3 1930 2.07 11.3 1940 2.30 11.1 1950 2.52 9.6 1960 3.02 19.8 1970 3.70 22.5 1980 4.44 20.0 1990 5.27 18.7 2000 6.06 15.0 2005 6.46

Rate of Population Change per Decade: 

Rate of Population Change per Decade 1900- 1910 1910- 1920 1920- 1930 1930- 1940 1940- 1950 1950- 1960 1960- 1970 1970- 1980 1980- 1990 1990- 2000 Decade

Slide21: 

Projected More Solid Peak 2.19%, 1962-3 Now 1.14% est 2006 Apr 06 CIA Factbook est for 2006 Annual Growth Rate — World Population

Slide22: 

I’ve presented data showing the world population is not increasing exponentially. The growth rate has been decreasing. What’s happening in absolute numbers of people added per year?

Slide23: 

US Census Bureau. Accessed June 24, 2006. http://www.census.gov Peak of 89 million in 1989 Now about 75 million History and Estimates — Forecast Estimates

Slide24: 

UN Population Data, 5 year averages, accessed Apr 18, 2006 *

Slide25: 

# of People Added to World 1989 94.4 million people added. 2006 74.4 million. Source: CIA World Factbook (for 2006: world population x 0.0114)

Slide26: 

The rate of increase has declined. The absolute number of people added has started to decline. Still, we have major increases. 1. What counts for the overall increase in population?

Slide27: 

Many countries have shown dramatic decreases in death rates. This is seen as • an increase in longevity, or, • decrease in mortality, or, • in particular, decrease in infant mortality

Slide28: 

Lifespan (World) UN Population Division: 1950-1955: 46.6 years 2000-2005: 65.4 years Increase of > 40% Source: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ CIA World Factbook: 1989: 62 years 2006: 65 years Source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook (accessed June 22, 2006)

Slide29: 

Infant Mortality: (worldwide rate) Infant mortality: death prior to 1 year of age UN figures: 1950-1955: 157 / 1000 2000-2005: 57 / 1000 Source: UN Population Division, http://esa.un.org/unpp/ (accessed May 10, 2006) CIA World Factbook: 2006 (est): 49 / 1000 Source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook (accessed June 22, 2006)

Slide30: 

More women survive through child-bearing years, more babies born. More children survive to child-bearing years. Therefore, potential exists for even more babies to be born. This explosive burst is what Garrett Hardin and Paul Ehrlich, back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, envisioned happening. It didn’t.

Slide31: 

Did women have more and more babies? Worldwide Births per Year (TOTAL numbers) 1950-1955: 99,044,000 2000-2005: 132,508,000 Source: UN Population Division: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ There are more babies now, true. But the population is much larger, too. These numbers don’t support individual women having more and more babies.

Slide32: 

Crude birth rate per year - Worldwide Births per Year / Total Population 1950-1955: 0.099 million / 2,780 million 2000-2005: 0.133 million / 6,450 million So, 35.63 births per thousand then vs. 20.54 births per thousand now (Above figures from UN; CIA Factbook gives estimate of 20.05 for birthrate/thousand for the world for 2006) What’s the birthrate per population?

Fertility Rate: Births per Woman(assumes woman lives through reproductive years): 

Worldwide: 1950 5.0 (est) 2.6 (UN ); 2.59 (CIA Factbook) Fertility Rate: Births per Woman (assumes woman lives through reproductive years) Sources: UN Population: http://esa.un.org/unpp CIA Factbook: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook Replacement is ~2.1 for developed countries. Replacement is ~2.3 for world now. What’s the birthrate per woman?

Slide34: 

One well-documented correlation: When women have educational opportunities, birth rate drops quickly. Prehaps women having other opportunities is the key, not just educational ones. When women have other opportunities, birth rate drops relatively quickly.

The Point?: 

The Point? Women don’t seem to be like calculating shepherds—wanting as many children as they can bear as long as someone else is feeding them (as Hardin conjectured). Nor do they seem to be solely biological automatons determined by evolution to bear babies in high number.

Slide36: 

Examples: India Guatemala Haiti United States Iran China Pakistan Indonesia South Africa Niger Nigeria (There are ~238 countries in the world.)

India: 

India Population 1,095 million Pop. growth rate 1.38 % Total fertility rate 2.73 children/women Life expectancy at birth 64.71 yrs Birth rate 22.01 / 1000 Death rate 8.18 / 1000 Median age 24.9 yrs HIV rate: 0.9 % Infant mortality 54.63 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 59.5 % Land phones: 67.3 million Male 70.2 % Cell phones: 69.2 million Female 48.3 % Internet users: 50.6 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide39: 

Andra Pradesh, India. Area of very rapid economic and cultural change presently (last 15 years or so). Higher proportion of illiterate women now use birth control. Their daughters are much more likely to go to school. Bhat, P. N. M. (2002). "Returning a favor: reciprocity between female education and fertility in India." World Development 30(10): 1791-1803. McNay, K. and P. Arokiasamy, R.H. Cassen (2003) Why are uneducated women in India using contraception? A multilevel analysis. Population Studies 57 (1) 21-40.

Education and Fertility: 

Education and Fertility Education Level of Woman Fertility Rate of Woman (Family Size)

Fertility and Education: 

Fertility and Education Family Size (particularly of illiterate mothers) Education of Offspring Children of illiterate mothers are more likely to attend school if family size is limited

Slide42: 

Andra Pradesh, India Deccan Development Society: work with Dalit (untouchable) women to help them improve their livelihoods in Andra Pradesh. This area is undergoing rapid social change co-incident with a dramatic decrease in fertility of illiterate women in recent years. For article on DDS, see Rao, V. R. (2002). Women farmers of India's Deccan Plateau: ecofeminists challenge world elites. Environmental ethics: what really matters, what really works. D. Schmidtz and E. Willott. New York, Oxford University Press: 255-262.

Slide43: 

The DDS in Andra Pradesh, India Among other projects, the DDS provided microloans to untouchable women so women could have cell phone to rent to others, thereby generating a livelihood for themselves. In so doing, this also worked to change the culture since suddenly the phones were “touchable” and it became acceptable to negotiate with the untouchable women. The breakdown of the caste system is making more opportunities available for women. This cell-phone project is only possible as a society transitions from no phones to many people having cell phones. The current DDS website does not discuss the cell-phone project any longer. DDS website is found at http://www.ddsindia.com/www/default.asp

Slide44: 

What’s Happening With Phones? From CIA Factbook for 2006: Landlines worldwide: 1.21 billion Cell phones worldwide: 1.75 billion Internet users 1.02 billion

United States: 

United States Population 298.4 million Pop. growth rate 0.91 % Total fertility rate 2.09 children/women Life expectancy at birth 77.85 yrs Birth rate 14.14 / 1000 Death rate 8.26 / 1000 Median age 36.5 yrs HIV rate: 0.6 % Infant mortality 6.43 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 99 % Land phones: 268 million Male 99 % Cell phones: 194.5million Female 99 % Internet users: 203.4 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

5 year age increments: 

US 2006 MALE FEMALE Population in millions Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006 5 year age increments

US 1960: 

MALE FEMALE Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006 US 2006 US 1960

US 1960: 

MALE FEMALE Source: US. Census Bureau, Apr 2006, estimates for 2006 US 2006 US 1960 Note 1930-1940 depression Note more older females Also note column appearance in last almost 50 years.

Guatemala: 

Guatemala Population 12.3 million Pop. growth rate 2.27 % Total fertility rate 3.82 children/women Life expectancy at birth 69.38 yrs Birth rate 29.88 / 1000 Death rate 5.22 / 1000 Median age 18.9 yrs HIV rate: 1.1 % Infant mortality 39.94 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 70.6 % Land phones: 1.13 million Male 78 % Cell phones: 3.17 million Female 63.3 % Internet users: 0.76 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Guatemala: 

Guatemala Babies per woman: 1990: 5.6 1999: 4.8 2006 est. 3.8 Was highest fertility rate in the Americas. Now Haiti is highest with 4.94. CIA Factbook, est for 2006 http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/xx.html Also US Census: http://www.census.gov

Guatemala: 

Guatemala 1981 1991 2006 Note change in lowest 3-4 bars in these years. Guatemala not expanding in rate as it was 15 years ago Still, a high proportion of the population are children and there are many of them!

Haiti (now highest fertility in Americas): 

Haiti (now highest fertility in Americas) Population 8.31 million Pop. growth rate 2.3 % Total fertility rate 4.94 children/women Life expectancy at birth 52.23 yrs Birth rate 36.44 / 1000 Death rate 12.17 / 1000 Median age 18.2 yrs HIV rate: 5.6 % Infant mortality 71.65 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 52.9 % Land phones: 0.14 million Male 54.8 % Cell phones: 0.40 million Female 51.2 % Internet users: 0.50 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide53: 

Haiti 1986 2006 NOTE: More females in older categories.

Iran: 

Iran Background: 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. ~1 million die. On the society: Nafisi, A. (2003). Reading Lolita in Tehran. New York, Random House. On the fertility decline: • Aghajanian, A. and A. H. Mehryar (1999). "Fertility Transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1976-1996." Asia-Pacific Population Journal 14(1): http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/population/journal/1999/v14n1tc.htm.

Iran: 

Iran Population 68.7 million Pop. growth rate 1.1 % Total fertility rate 1.8 children/women Life expectancy at birth 70.26 yrs Birth rate 17 / 1000 Death rate 5.55 / 1000 Median age 24.8 yrs HIV rate: < 0.1 % Infant mortality 40.3 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 70.26 % Land phones: 14.6 million Male 79.4 % Cell phones: 4.3 million Female 73 % Internet users: 7.5 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide56: 

Iran, 1986 Iran, 2006 * * Note “boat” shape in 2006, versus acceleration shape of 1986 Looks as if ~600,000 babies born ~1980-1985 did not survive to adulthood. Would be good to compare 1991, 1996, 2001 as well to see if pattern emerges

Can it be cell-phones? Well, really communication and possible opportunities: 

Can it be cell-phones? Well, really communication and possible opportunities There was no way Ehrlich or Hardin could have predicted this. Nor the UN, nor US Census bureau, nor CIA. Anecdotal evidence suggests cell phones may play role! Guatemala radically deregulated phones a few years ago. Iranian mother of two of my students mentioned cell phones and satellite TV as reason for decreased birth rate in Iran

Slide58: 

Andra Pradesh, India Deccan Development Society: work with Dalit (untouchable) women to help them improve their livelihoods in Andra Pradesh. This area is undergoing rapid social change co-incident with a dramatic decrease in fertility of illiterate women in recent years. For article on DDS, see Rao, V. R. (2002). Women farmers of India's Deccan Plateau: ecofeminists challenge world elites. Environmental ethics: what really matters, what really works. D. Schmidtz and E. Willott. New York, Oxford University Press: 255-262.

Slide59: 

India 1996 India 2006 Note flattening of edges; maybe moving to column shape? Almost perfect pyramid shape; so NOT exponential growth.

China: 

China Population 1314 million Pop. growth rate 0.59 % Total fertility rate 1.73 children/women Life expectancy at birth 72.58 yrs Birth rate 13.25 / 1000 Death rate 6.97 / 1000 Median age 32.7 yrs HIV rate: 0.1 % Infant mortality 23.12 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 90.9 % Land phones: 312 million Male 95.1 % Cell phones: 335 million Female 86.5 % Internet users: 111 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide61: 

China 1991 China 2006 Note: “Boat” shape of last 20 years. 2006 Male:Female Sex Ratios: 0-4 yr old: 1.158 5-9 yr old: 1.155

Slide62: 

Some factories in China are now reporting difficulty getting young workers. Workers are demanding raises, reduced work hours… See one example of a response to Googling: “manpower shortage China” http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20060501/ts_csm/ohelpwanted China 2006

Pakistan: 

Pakistan Population 12.3 million Pop. growth rate 2.27 % Total fertility rate 3.82 children/women Life expectancy at birth 69.38 yrs Birth rate 29.88 / 1000 Death rate 5.22 / 1000 Median age 18.9 yrs HIV rate: 1.1 % Infant mortality 39.94 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 70.6 % Land phones: 1.13 million Male 78 % Cell phones: 3.17 million Female 63.3 % Internet users: 0.76 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide64: 

Pakistan 2006 Pakistan 1986

Indonesia: 

Indonesia Population 245.5 million Pop. growth rate 1.41 % Total fertility rate 2.4 children/women Life expectancy at birth 69.87 yrs Birth rate 20.34 / 1000 Death rate 6.25 / 1000 Median age 26.8 yrs HIV rate: <0.1 % Infant mortality 34.39 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 87.9 % Land phones: 9.99 million Male 92.5 % Cell phones: 30 million Female 83.4 % Internet users: 18 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide66: 

Indonesia 1991 Indonesia 2006

South Africa: 

South Africa Population 44.2 million Pop. growth rate -0.4 % Total fertility rate 2.2 children/women Life expectancy at birth 42.73 yrs Birth rate 18.2 / 1000 Death rate 22 / 1000 Median age 24.1 yrs HIV rate (adult): 21.5 % Infant mortality 60.66 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 86.4 % Land phones: 4.84 million Male 87 % Cell phones: 19.5 million Female 85.7 % Internet users: 3.5 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide68: 

South Africa 1986 South Africa 2006 Note step-like character to 1986, and subsequent boat-like shape of 2006. HIV/AIDS is prevalent in South Africa leading to increased deaths of infants and young children. Also, condoms are effective contraception and condom use is up due to HIV/AIDS.

Slide69: 

Only a few countries are not showing a reduction in fertility rate (if higher than replacement). The majority of those countries are involved, or were recently involved, in war. Countries with high fertility rates are mainly in Africa and the Middle East, plus Afghanistan. Most of Europe, the far east, and southeast Asia are below replacement fertility.

World: 

World Population 6525 million Pop. growth rate 1.14 % Total fertility rate 2.59 children/women Life expectancy at birth 64.77 yrs Birth rate 20.05 / 1000 Death rate 8.67 / 1000 Median age 27 yrs HIV rate: N/A Infant mortality 48.87 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 82 % Land phones: 1.21 billion Male 87 % Cell phones: 1.75 billion Female 77 % Internet users: 1.12 billion SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide71: 

Worldwide Fertility Rate/Woman Replacement is ~2.3

Slide72: 

Population increase still occurs if Increase in longevity Lots of youngsters still growing up!

Slide73: 

Changes in Population Pyramid - World (Numbers indicate % of total population) http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp Age Categories

Slide74: 

The Changing World Profile - Age Distribution (%) Data source: US Census; http://www.census.gov

Slide75: 

Age Distribution - Absolute numbers - World 1955, 1996, 2006 Note: Curve is 1) expanding in 1955; 2) more step-like in 1996; and 3) we start to see column shape in 2006. Data: US Census

Slide76: 

Population increase still occurs if Increase in longevity Lots of youngsters still growing up! HIV/AIDS is causing decreases in population in most-effected countries. Prevention via condoms is effective birth control!

Slide77: 

Countries with high fertility/woman rates: SOURCE: US Census Bureau, International Data Base; accessed June 22, 2006. http://www.census.gov/ (All countries ≥ 6 babies/women are listed above.)

Slide78: 

Niger - 2006 Fertility rate of 7.46 births / women Source: US Census bureau

Niger: 

Niger Population 12.5 million Pop. growth rate 2.92 % Total fertility rate 7.46 children/women Life expectancy at birth 43.76 yrs Birth rate 50.73 / 1000 Death rate 20.91 / 1000 Median age 16.5 yrs HIV rate: 1.2 % Infant mortality 118.3 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 17.6 % Land phones: 0.024 million Male 25 % Cell phones: 0.148 million Female 9.7 % Internet users: 0.024 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Ten Most Populous Countries: 

Ten Most Populous Countries

Slide81: 

Nigeria - 2006 Fertility rate of 5.49 births / women Source: US Census bureau

Nigeria: 

Nigeria Population 131.9 million Pop. growth rate 2.38 % Total fertility rate 5.49 children/women Life expectancy at birth 47.08 yrs Birth rate 40.43 / 1000 Death rate 16.94 / 1000 Median age 18.7 yrs HIV rate: 5.4 % Infant mortality 97.14 / 1000 live births Literacy rate 68 % Land phones: 1.03 million Male 75.7 % Cell phones: 9.15 million Female 60.6 % Internet users: 1.77 million SOURCE: CIA World Factbook, June 2006.

Slide83: 

From UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/

Slide88: 

From UN at http://esa.un.org/unpp/