KNIES M2 MENASUN

Competence Building in Solar Energy Technology in the MENA regionwith MENA*SUN: 

Competence Building in Solar Energy Technology in the MENA region with MENA*SUN by Gerhard Knies Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation TREC MENAREC2, Amman 10-05-2005

Slide2: 

Why solar energy in MENA? That is clear! (really?)  Why COMPETENCE in the low-profile R&D region of MENA ? What is MENA*SUN ?

MENA*SUN: 

MENA*SUN What does it mean ? Why is it proposed ? What should it do? How could it work ? How to get MENA*SUN started ?

1. What does MENA*SUN mean ?: 

1. What does MENA*SUN mean ? The Middle East and North Africa i.e.the countries from North-West Africa, along the Mediterranean and the Red Sea shore lines, over to the Arabian Gulf. All these MENA countries belong to the SUN belt They have energy from the SUN in over-abundance: MENA*SUN = Association for Co-operative Solar Technology Research, Development & Demonstration (RD&D)

2. Why is MENA*SUN proposed ?: 

2. Why is MENA*SUN proposed ? 4 reasons for going to solar energy: Security of energy supply - resources; limited reserves and access Economy of energy supply - costs, rising trend and fluctuations Ecology of energy supply – climate stability, or less rain in Maghreb Development of human resources sustainable prosperity, “knowledge economy”, self-respect Improvement of solar technology will be beneficial for all MENA countries cooperative R&D

Why MENA*SUN ?: 

Why MENA*SUN ? Reason 1

Security of Energy supply Growth of Population : 

Security of Energy supply Growth of Population M E N A x2 Reason 1: 370 730 5 x Egypt

Slide8: 

Security of Energy supply Growing Freshwater Demand in the MENA countries deficit 2050 4 NILES 1Nile =60 bil m³/year Reason 1:

Slide9: 

2500 TWh/y electricity from CSP 5ct/kWh 125 Billion $ market Reason 1: Security of Energy supply Explosion of electricity demand

(In)-security of fossil energy: limited reserves: 

(In)-security of fossil energy: limited reserves oil gas lignite coal Reason 1: nearly 1/3 used up !

Why MENA*SUN ?: 

Why MENA*SUN ? Reason 2 Economy of energy supply

Economy of Fossil and Solar Energy in future: 

Economy of Fossil and Solar Energy in future 1 NILE Reason 2: More oil demand Price More solar energy demand Price

Faster Cost Reduction thru RD&D: 

Faster Cost Reduction thru RD&D This graph was derived from an assessment of parabolic trough and power tower solar technology cost and performance forecast by Sargent & Lundy. Reason 2:

Solar saving potential by R&D: 

Solar saving potential by R&D Water 2 Niles in 2050 cost redu. by 15 ct/m³, saving potential 18 billion $/year Power 2500 TWh in 2050 cost redu. by 1ct/kWh saving potential 25 billion $/year Reason 2:

Saving with Solar Energy?: 

Saving with Solar Energy? The more you „save“ in R&D - the more you pay for „Their“ technology. The more you improve by R&D, the more you save in „Your“ economy 1 ct/kWh cost reduction thru R&D  you save 25 billion $/year, in 2050 Why not spend 25 – 250 million/year for R&D ? Where can you invest better ? Reason 2:

Why MENA*SUN ?: 

Why MENA*SUN ? Reason 3 Ecology of energy supply – climate stability, or less rain in Maghreb

Ecology: Climate stability: 

Ecology: Climate stability Reason 3: Stable climate ?? Climate out off control Climate terrorism 80 to 10

Ecology of energy supply: 

Ecology of energy supply Mounting global pressure for shift-over to clean energies Clean energy – the market of the future Solar technology – the technology for the future! Reason 3:

Why MENA*SUN ?: 

Why MENA*SUN ? Reason 4 human development – transition to knowledge based society and economy

Science in Arab and other countries: 

Science in Arab and other countries Scientific Publications per capita: per 1 million poeple and year Reason 4:

R&D in Arab and other countriesNumber of Scientists and Engineers in R&D per 1 Million people: 

R&D in Arab and other countries Number of Scientists and Engineers in R&D per 1 Million people Reason 4:

R&D in Arab countries and in GermanyExpenses for R&D, in % of GDP, and absolutely per capita: 

R&D in Arab countries and in Germany Expenses for R&D, in % of GDP, and absolutely per capita Reason 4: Who does not do research&development does not develop. Those who do research&development do develop ! Factor 200

Why is MENA*SUN proposed ?: 

Why is MENA*SUN proposed ?  R&D for solar technology will be beneficial for all MENA countries!

3. WHAT should MENA*SUN do ?: 

3. WHAT should MENA*SUN do ? Four direct aims for MENA*SUN Build technology competence Speed up CSP technology cost reduction Develop the sunbelt-technology Organize technology know-how import “Side effects” Create MENA-wide co-operation Create jobs for talented people – stop brain-drain Create opp’ties for investments – stop capital-drain

4. How could MENA*SUN work: 

4. How could MENA*SUN work Organizational MENA*SUN structure Functions of MENA*SUN bodies A budget for MENA*SUN: Which fraction of GDP 1%, 1 ‰, 0.1 ‰ ? 1‰ of GDP for future savings thru solar R&D ? .

MENA*SUN structure: 

MENA*SUN structure

Think Tank*2050: 

Think Tank*2050 The MENA*2050 Think Tank is to elaborate strategies for water and energy security, and for achieving sustainable prosperity. The MENA*2050 Think Tank is a group of scientific experts in solar technology, economy and societal development MENA*2050 Think Tank will explore options for strategies of using solar and other renewable energies to achieve sustainable prosperity at home and to strengthen the MENA economies for the challenges by pro­gressing globalization. It is an advisory body to the Policy Council. Its members are invited/appointed by the Policy Council.

MENA*SUN Policy Council: 

MENA*SUN Policy Council The Policy Council (PC) is to recommend RD&D topics and strategies for implementation The Policy Council is a body of political advisors to assess strategic options, to identify and recommend the solar R&D goals required for making the region MENA ready for the year 2050 and beyond, in particularly to ensure water and energy security, to put the MENA*SUN efforts into the context of a comprehensive MENA development strategy towards sustainable prosperity, the eight Millennium Development Goals, and international security policy. This concept is largely in line with the proposal by HRH Prince El Hassan from Jordan for forming a community of water and energy security and for a group of WISE people to prepare it. The original aim of resolving conflicts by peaceful mechanisms has been developed further to avoid conflicts by joint efforts for creating new capacities for the upcoming demands. Prince El Hassan from Jordan will chair the MENA*2050 Policy Council.

Budget for MENA*SUN: 

Budget for MENA*SUN

5.) How to get MENA*SUN started: 

5.) How to get MENA*SUN started If 2 or 3 Research and Development institutions sign an agreement… … and begin with practical implementation

MENA*SUN AGREEMENT: 

MENA*SUN AGREEMENT Vision: The Future of MENA Water, energy and a stable environment are key factors for the future of mankind and of the peoples in MENA The MENA region is blessed by nature with the best solar energy on earth. With the technology of solar thermal power, and by human ingenuity and labor, all MENA countries can create sustainable supply of energy and desalinated water, for any demand, affordable for all, clean and for all future. Solar energy can be made to a source of sustainable wealth for all MENA countries. Solar energy in the MENA region can be made to a sustainable and abundant source of clean energy for the world. Solar energy and the knowledge how to use it can give a bright future to the MENA region.

MENA*SUN AGREEMENT: 

Purpose of MENA*SUN The solar technology RD&D association MENA*SUN will work to make this vision real. To this end, MENA*SUN will develop in MENA the competence for solar energy technology thru joint research, development and demonstration (RD&D) efforts, and promote MENA-wide cooperation for fast project implementation. MENA*SUN AGREEMENT

MENA*SUN agreement: 

MENA*SUN agreement Creation of MENA*SUN The undersigned research institutions herewith establish MENA*SUN for adopting and improving those solar technologies which are most powerful under the conditions and for the needs of the sun-belt countries. To this end they will cooperate on: RD&D capacity building for concentrated solar power technologies and desalination, including of further interested RD&D actors/institutes from MENA countries, organizing technology and know-how transfer into the MENA region, elaborating strategies for water and energy security, by means of a MENA*2050 Think Tank (MTT), stimulating MENA and EU bodies for developing a EU-MENA partnership for energy and water security and for supporting corresponding programs and activities.

MENA*SUN agreement: 

MENA*SUN agreement Creation of MENA*SUN The undersigned… They will assign an appropriate amount of their human and financial resources to joint efforts of MENA*SUN, and establish the necessary structures. They will work jointly for making solar energy RD&D an appreciated and properly supported activity in the MENA region. They will establish a Policy Council (PC), for advice on optimal RD&D strategies and for an effective Trans-Mediterranean Cooperation. This co-operation begins with the signing of this document by the initiating research centers CSES and NERC, the Engineering Department of Universtity of Aden, and maybe additional institutions at the MENAREC2 conference.

On MENA*SUN we have seen:: 

On MENA*SUN we have seen: What does it mean 4 reasons why is it proposed What should it do How could it work How to get MENA*SUN started

Outlook: 

Outlook Oil disappears, when you use it Knowledge grows, when you use it Invest in knowledge A message from China Discover the power of knowledge Create MENA*SUN !

Slide37: 

Thank*you !

Slide38: 

+ 50% Reason 2: Economy (In)-security of fossil energy: rising and fluctuating costs Oil price $/barrel last 12 months (Brent crude oil) indicating shortage before depletion

Solar saving potential by R&D: 

Solar saving potential by R&D Water 2 Niles in 2050 Power 2500 TWh in 2050 cost redu. by 15 ct/m³, saving potential 18 billion $/year cost redu.by 1ct/kWh saving potential 25 billion $/year Reason 2:

Slide40: 

World wide obligation in 2050 (proposed by WBGU, 2003) Ecology of energy supply