TURKEY Outlook 20070520

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TURKEY: TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITIES Dr. Yılmaz ARGÜDEN yarguden@arge.com

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK AND CHANGING MENTALITIES

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25 YEARS OF INTEGRATION WITH THE WORLD, 43 WITH THE EU Changing Political and Business Habits: Towards a New Understanding Free Circulation of Capital Customs Union Full Membership Perspective WTO Free Market Economy 1980 1996 1995 1989 2002 CLOSED ECONOMY Accession Negotiations Decision 2005 and beyond Political Immobilism Structural Problems Striving Private Sector “IRREVOCABLE PROCESS”

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In Office Since 2002, AK Party Government Succeeded in Keeping Under Control Regarding: Fiscal & Monetary Discipline Structural Reforms Implementing International Standards Integration With EU TURNING POINT IN TURKISH POLITICS General Elections’ Date Has Been Set For July 22. The Upcoming Elections Have Not Changed The Stability Expectations Created In The Past 5 Years. General Political Outlook General Economic Outlook Foreign Exchange Rates Government Borrowing Rates Privatisation Process

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Focus on Quality: Turkey Wins Most Quality Awards in Europe. By 2006, Turkey Was Awarded Largest Number of Quality Awards: BRISA BRIDGESTONE/SABANCI TYRES BEKO KOÇ GROUP CONSUMER DURABLES BOSCH BSH AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIES BEKSA SABANCI GROUP STEEL CORDS VITRA ECZACIBASI CONSTRUCTION ARCELIK KOÇ GROUP CONSUMER DURABLES NETAŞ NETAŞ TELECOMS KOCAELI CHAMBER OF INDUSTRY NGO ECA ELGİNKAN GROUP HEATING ELEMENTS SKF SKF ROLLINGS CHANGING ATTITUDE OF PRIVATE SECTOR

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Creating World Brands Of Her Own… Brand Industry Mostly Active In Origin Beko Electronics USA and Europe Turkey Mavi Textiles USA and Europe Turkey Efes Beverages Europe, Asia Turkey …As Well As Manufacturing For World Giants Companies Industry Renault, Ford, Fiat, Toyota, Pirelli, Goodyear Automotive Mercedes, Hyundai, Bosch Bosch, Siemens, Vaillant Consumer Dur. Coca-Cola, Unilever, P&G FMCG CHANGING ATTITUDE OF PRIVATE SECTOR

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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2006 GDP (USD bn) Real GDP Growth 2003-2006 Average BENCHMARKING TURKEY’S PERFORMANCE

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 2000-2006 : 

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 2000-2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Employment Unemployment rate 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 Inflation - CPI, % 39.0 68.5 29.7 18.4 9.3 7.7 9.7 National Income GDP: nominal ($ Bn) 199.7 145.6 184.4 241.3 300.6 361.4 390.0 GNP: Nominal ($ Bn) 201.4 144.0 183.6 238.5 301.5 360.8 405.0 Debt, $ Bn Domestic debt 54.2 84.9 91.7 139.3 167.3 182.5 185.0 External debt 118.7 113.8 130.4 145.8 161.7 170.0 206.0 External Accounts, $ Bn Current Account -9.8 3.4 -1.5 -8.0 -15.5 -22.8 -18.9 Exports (f.o.b) 27.8 31.3 36.1 47.3 63.1 73.4 85 Imports (c.i.f) 54.5 41.4 51.6 69.3 97.5 116.7 137 Trade Volume 82.3 72.7 87.6 116.6 160.6 190.1 222 Trade Balance -26.7 -10.1 -15.5 -22.0 -34.4 -43.3 -52 Export/Import Ratio, % 51.0 75.7 69.9 68.2 64.7 63.0 62 Source: Turkish Statistics Institute; Central Bank; Treasury

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TURKISH ECONOMY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING FOURTH SUCCESSIVE YEAR OF GROWTH IN 2005: TURKEY BECAME THE WORLD’S 19TH LARGEST ECONOMY (WITH GDP OVER $360 bn) , ONE STEP UP FROM 2004. IT IS EXPECTED THAT TURKEY WILL RANK 17TH IN 2006 1996-2006* 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CAGR YoY YoY YoY YoY YoY GNP 4 8 6 10 8 6 EXPORTS 15 23 20 33 16 16 IMPORTS 17 12 20 40 20 18 * ANNUAL GROWTH RATE GOES UP TO 7 % WHEN CRISES IN 1994, 1999 AND 2001 ARE EXCLUDED

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A HISTORICAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TURKISH ECONOMY SEEMS TO HAVE SET ON THE RIGHT TRACK FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IN LINE WITH TARGETS IMF PROGRAMME IS STRICTLY FOLLOWED BUDGETARY TARGETS ARE REASONABLE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN REAL AND NOMINAL INTEREST RATES SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INFLATION SIXTH SUCCESSIVE YEAR OF GROWTH IS EXPECTED IN 2007 FOREIGN TRADE IS GROWING SIGNIFICANTLY RISING EXPECTATIONS IN STABLE EXCHANGE RATES THERE IS STILL PLENTY TO ACCOMPLISH AND MANAGE STRUCTURAL REFORMS NEED COMPLETION PUBLIC MONETARY DISCIPLINE NEEDS TO BE FOLLOWED VIGOROUSLY CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT NEEDS TO BE KEPT UNDER CONTROL

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EU PERSPECTIVE

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EU IS A STRONG ANCHOR FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS TURKEY EU HISTORICAL COMMERCIAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL Formal Relationship Since 1963 Main Trading Partner Customs Union CU Related Legislation Free Market Economy Efforts Of Integration With World Economy Creating An Economic & Financial Union Recognition Of The Potential In Turkey -Inclusion of Turkey in G-20 Creating A Single Currency FULL MEMBERSHIP CANDIDACY Enlargement

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TURKEY AS AN INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE WORLD PLAYER: DRIVING FORCES BEHIND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH POTENTIAL & DYNAMISM

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MOSCOW TASHKENT TEHRAN BAKU TEL AVIV ROME BERLIN PARIS 2,000 km 1.800 km 2,000 km 1,100 km 1,400 km 3,400 km 1,700 km 2,000 km E.U. ASIA MIDDLE EAST ISTANBUL AFRICA PERFECT LOCATION OF ISTANBUL FOR REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS OF INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES SUCH AS COCA-COLA MICROSOFT JP MORGAN CHASE GENERAL ELECTRIC DEVELOPED COUNTRY LEVEL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR BUSINESS AND LIVING STATE OF THE ART TELECOM FACILITIES AVAILABILITY OF EFFECTIVE LOGISTICS SYSTEMS SKILLED LABOUR DEVELOPED FINANCIAL MARKETS STATE OF THE ART HEALTH SERVICE EDUCATION SUITABLE TO ALL NEEDS TURKEY AS A BUSINESS HUB

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TURKEY OFFERS A SOUND LEGAL BASIS FOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS FREE MOVEMENT OF CAPITAL SINCE 1990 WELL-SECURED ENVIRONMENT FOR FOREIGN CAPITAL HIGHLY LIBERAL AND NON-DISCRIMINATORY FOREIGN INVESTMENT LEGISLATION INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION MECHANISM COMMERCIAL LEGISLATION IN LINE WITH THAT OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD COMPETITION LEGISLATION PROTECTION OF PROPERTY RIGHTS INVESTMENT INCENTIVES NEW DIRECT INVESTMENT LAW EFFECTIVE SINCE JUNE 17, 2003 COMPANY ESTABLISHMENT PROCEDURES SIMPLIFIED

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FDI REGIME OF TURKEY AND INCENTIVES No Approval Requirement No Minimum Capital Requirement National Treatment Guarantee to Transfer Proceeds Key Expatriate Personnel Protection Against Expropriation Access to Real Estate International Dispute Settlement General Investment Encouragement Program Incentives for Low-Income Regions Incentives for the SMEs Supports in Technology Development Zones Research and Development Supports by TUBİTAK

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FDI IN FIGURES FDI Inflows Number of Companies with International Capital (Cumulative) billion US$ 19,8 thousands

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MAIN DRIVING FORCES BEHIND TURKEY’S DYNAMISM UNSATURATED LOCAL MARKET AND YOUNG POPULATION %30 BELOW 15 YRS OF AGE (DECREASING) DYNAMISM IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET DUE TO INCREASED COMPETITION CHANGES IN LIFE STYLES AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS 16.3 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS (INCREASING) WITH ALMOST USD 25K INCOME AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 4.4 (DECREASING) 74% URBAN POPULATION (INCREASING) POSITIVE EXPECTATIONS RESULTING FROM THE INITIATION OF ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU DYNAMIC AND GROWING PRIVATE SECTOR

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TURKEY RANKS AMONG TOP 10 WORLD PRODUCERS OF SOME COMMODITIES...

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...AND ALSO AMONG LEADING PRODUCERS IN SOME INDUSTRIES THE WORLD’S 6TH CEMENT PRODUCER 6TH CLOTHING EXPORTER 8TH GLASS PRODUCER EUROPE’S 1ST FERTILIZER PRODUCER 5TH GLASS RPODUCER 7TH STEEL PRODUCER LARGEST EMERGING ECONOMY

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TURKEY`S ENERGY SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO DOUBLE TO REACH 155 mtoe IN 2010 NEED OF FURTHER ENERGY INVESTMENTS AMOUNTING TO 20-25 BILLION USD TO MEET THE GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND TURKEY IS A PROMISING CANDIDATE FOR BEING THE ENERGY TERMINAL OF THE REGION IN THE 21ST CENTURY THANKS TO EURASIAN ENERGY RESOURCES KEY GROWTH SECTOR : ENERGY

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KEY GROWTH SECTOR : ENERGY, A WIDE SCOPE CORRIDOR

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KEY GROWTH SECTOR : ENERGY CASE OF ELECTRICITY 8 % AVERAGE INCREASE IN ANNUAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND 24.000 MW OF INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2000 MUST INCREASE TO 65.000 MW IN 2010 4.000 MW ADDITIONAL CAPACITY NEEDED PER ANNUM IN 10 YEARS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES BY WAY OF BOT, BOO AND CO-PRODUCTION MODELS EXAMPLE: INTERGEN-ENKA-BECHTEL JV TO BOO 3 POWER PLANTS TOTALING 3.854 MW , WORTH $2.2 BN

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RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SECTOR : TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRIVATISATION OF TURK TELEKOM WAS REALISED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SECTOR 1994 2006 NUMBER OF MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 80.000 44.000.000 LIBERALIZATION OF FIXED TELEPHONY SERVICES THROUGH ABOLITION OF MONOPOLY OF TURK TELEKOM IN 2004 THIRD GSM LICENCE SOLD DURING 2000 BECAME OPERATIVE IN 2001. TURK TELEKOM’S GSM OPERATOR ALSO LAUNCHED IN 2002 NOW BOTH NEW GSM OPERATORS MERGE UNDER ONE ROOF INVESTMENTS BY WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION GIANTS SUCH AS NOKIA, ERICSSON AND SIEMENS IN TURKEY 3,5 MILLION ADSL USERS, EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6 MILLION IN 2 YEARS CONSTANT NEED FOR INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS TO MEET RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DOMESTIC DEMAND

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HIGH POTENTIAL : TOURISM Turkey is the 13th country attracting the highest number of tourists and in terms of revenues, Turkey ranks 8th according to WTO. WTO expects 25 million tourists visiting Turkey annually by 2010 21,1 19,8

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AN AREA OF FOCUS IN TURKEY : THE SOUTH EASTERN ANATOLIAN PROJECT A $ 30 BILLION INVESTMENT Advantages in Investing A Large and Rapidly Growing Market Proximity to Middle East Market Gate of Europe to Middle East and Asia Qualified Agricultural Production Potential of Tourism Transportation State Aid Total Budget for Complete Investment 32 Billion $ Investments already done 20 Billion $ Investments foreseen 12 Billion $

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STRONG RELATIONS WITH TURKIC REPUBLICS TURKEY HAS THE LARGEST NUMBER OF INVESTORS IN TURKIC REPUBLICS AND SECOND LARGEST IN $ TERMS COMPANIES OPERATING ESPECIALLY IN ; AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR WHITE GOODS RETAILING CONTRACTING INFLUENCE OF TURKEY IN THE REGION IN MATTERS RELATING TO EDUCATION - STUDENT EXCHANGE PROGRAMS WIDESPREAD TURKISH TV BROADCAST eg: CNN TÜRK TELECOM FACILITIES ACTING AS A HUB FOREIGN AFFAIRS LARGEST NO OF FLIGHT DESTINATIONS EASY ACCESS TO TURKIC REPUBLICS THANKS TO CULTURAL & LINGUISTIC LINKS POSSIBILITY OF ADDRESSING SOME 300 MILLION PEOPLE

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RECENT PRIVATISATION, M&A AND PRIVATE EQUITY ACTIVITIES

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PRIVATIZATION 162 COMPANIES HAVE BEEN PRIVATIZED FROM 1986 UNTIL 2004, GENERATING A REVENUE OF $ 9 BILLION. 2005 AND 2006 AND BEGINNING OF 2007 WITNESSED PRIVATISATION OF UNPRECEDENTED SCALE STANDING AT $ 17.6 BILLION OF NET REVENUES TURK TELEKOM Telecom 55 SAUDI OGER 6,55 TÜPRAŞ Energy 51 KOÇ/SHELL 4.14 ERDEMİR Steel 46 OYAK(TR) 2.77 İZMİR PORT Port 100 GLOBAL/HUTCHISON 1.28 PRIVATISED INDUSTRY SHARE ACQUIRED VALUE SOLD BY PAID (%) (billion USD)

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TO BE PRIVATIZED OR SOLD OUT BY GOVERNMENT AUCTIONS PRIVATISATION AND GOVERNMENT SELL OUTS WILL CARRY ON AT FULL SPEED WITH THE SALE OF ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES POWER PLANTS TELECOMS (3RD GENERATION GSM) MOTORWAYS (RIGHTS OF USE) PORTS (RAILWAY CONNECTED) REAL ESTATE (GENERAL AND TOURISTIC NATURE) TRANSPORT (AIRLINES) NATIONAL LOTTERY

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LOOKING AHEAD.. Natural Gas: The privatization of IGDAS, the leading natural gas distribution company in Istanbul with 3,000,000 subscribers, is on the agenda of the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK). IGDAS's total assets add up to $2 billion and its annual sales volume amounts to 3.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Electricity Distribution: The privatization of the Turkish Electricity Distribution Company (TEDAS) has been under preparation since March 2004. TEDAS is divided into 21 regional distribution companies. There will be independent tenders for each of these. Interested parties will be eligible to buy one or more distribution companies, pending approval from the Turkish Competition Board. The tender process has started and bids are being accepted. Tourism: Main deals concluded include the sale of the Istanbul Hilton hotel for $255.5 million, Cyprus Turkish Airlines for $33 million, the Büyük Efes and Büyük Ankara hotels for $121.5 million and $36.8 million, respectively. The sale contract for Tarabya hotel has been signed recently. Container Terminal and Marina Projects: The tenders for projects of the Derince and Iskenderun container terminals are to be realized through a BOT model or within the scope of the privatization program. BOT model tender announcements is planned for the construction of the Seferihisar-Ürkmez, Silivri, Mugla-Ören, Burhaniye, Çesme, and Izmir Karaburun marinas. Turkish Airlines, was partially floated on the Istanbul stock exchange last year and a further block sale is planned. Major tenders expected include port of Haydarpasa, Turkey's first maritime gateway and Samsun port, while the National Lottery Administration and Galataport wait for the legal arrangements to be completed. PRIVATIZATION

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TEB BNP Paribas France DIŞBANK Fortis Netherlands/Belgium YAPI KREDİ UniCredito/Koç Italy GARANTİBANK GE Capital USA DENIZBANK Dexia Belgium FINANSBANK National Bank Greece RECENT M&A ACTIVITY IN FINANCIAL SECTOR OTHER MAJOR CROSS-BORDER M&A TRANSACTIONS, 2005-6 Target Acquirer Share Industry $ Billion Türk Telekom Saudi Oger Government (55%) Telecoms 6.5 Tüpras Shell, Koç Government (51%) Oil 4.1 Turkcell TeliaSonera Çukurova (27%) Telecoms 3.1

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OTHER EXAMPLES OF PRIVATE EQUITY ACTIVITY THROUGH M&A’s AND GOVERNMENT SELL OUTS USA AIG Galatasaray 2000-3 Entertainment 15 Egypt EMEA Probil 2002 IT Dutch FMO TUYAP 2000 Exhibition Germany DGE Goldaş 2002 Jewellery 6 UK Tesco Kipa 2003 Retail 124 France Carrefour Gima Endi 2004 Retail 133 Turkey Migros Tansaş 2005 Retail 387 Canada Canwest Radio Channels 2005 Communications 56 Turkey Doğan TV Channel 2005 Communications 306 Turkey, Italy Various 9 Cement 2005 Construction 1.073 Belgium Factories Country Investor Acquiring Year Industry Value Million USD

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RECENT EXAMPLES OF FOREIGN INTEREST IN BANKING SECTOR INCLUDES: Citigroup continues to invest in Turkey — Citigroup invested in 20% of the largest private sector bank in Turkey, Akbank. Steve Bideshi, the CEO of Citigroup in Turkey, said that they will continue to work and invest in Turkey, stressing that the country is a priority for Citigroup. Deutsche Bank revealed its interest in stepping into the retail banking in Turkey. Merrill Lynch established its presence in Turkey through acquiring Tat Investment Bank in August 2006. "We believe that during the EU negotiation process, Turkey will complete its economic, political, and social changes and we would like to be part of that change." the organization said. Morgan Stanley has chosen Turkey as its "target market" and expand its presence in Turkey through an acquisition in September 2006. Rothschild has established presence in Turkey in July 2006, with a view to making a more effective contribution to the country’s fast economic development. Ranked at the top of the leage tables published by Merger Market for 2005-6.

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SECTORS LIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM CURRENT ECONOMIC CLIMATE ENERGY GROWTH POTENTIAL INCREASED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE SIGNIFICANT GROWTH POTENTIAL RETAILING CHANGING LIFE STYLES AGRIBUSINESS ENJOY SUSTAINED DEMAND, HIGH LIQUIDITY & LONG FX POSITION CONSUMER ELECTRONICS HAVE HIGH EXPORT SALES STRUCTURAL STEEL HAVE HIGH EXPORT SALES TOURISM TURKEY REMAINS RELATIVELY CHEAPER AND OFFERS A VERY GOOD QUALITY SERVICE AUTOMOTIVE HAVE HIGH EXPORT SALES

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MAIN AREAS OF GENERAL OPPORTUNITY MANUFACTURING PRIVATIZATION DELOCALIZATION STRATEGIC ALLIANCES SOURCING BASE INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATIZATION ENERGY TELECOM ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION IRRIGATION TRANSPORTATION SERVICES PRIVATIZATION BANKING TOURISM

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SEEING IS BELIEVING

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DID YOU KNOW THAT… ...The only city in the world located on two continents is Istanbul, which was the capital of three great empires, Roman, Byzantine and Ottoman for more than 2000 years. ...There are at least 150 archaeological excavations taking place in Turkey each year. ...The world's oldest known human settlement is in Catalhoyuk, Turkey (7500 BC). ...Two of the seven ancient wonders of the world, the Temple of Artemis and the Mausoleum at Halicarnassus, are located in Turkey. ...Anatolia is the birthplace of historic legends, such as Omer (the poet), King  Midas, Herodotus (the father of history) and St. Paul the Apostle.

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...Julius Ceasar proclaimed his celebrated words, "Veni, Vidi, Vici" (I came,  I  saw, I conquered) in Turkey when he defeated the Pontus, a formidable kingdom in the Black Sea region of Turkey. ...Turks introduced coffee to Europe and the tulip to the Dutch. ...St. Nicholas, who became popular as Santa Claus, was born in Demre (Myra) on Turkey's Mediterranean Coast. ...According to legend, Noah's Ark landed on Agri Dagi (Mount Ararat) in  Eastern Turkey, the supposed remains of which can be seen there today. ...The last meal on Noah's Ark, a pudding with nearly 20 ingredients, is still served throughout Turkey. DID YOU KNOW THAT…

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...The last home of the Virgin Mary is located in Selcuk, Turkey and, still intact, attracts thousands of visitors each year. ...St. John, St. Nicholas, St. Paul and St. Peter all lived and preached throughout Southern Anatolia. ...Homer was born in Izmir on the west coast of Turkey and he depicted Troy in  his Epic the Iliad. The Famous Trojan Wars took place in western Turkey, which is marked with a wooden statue of the Trojan Horse today. ...Aesop, famous for his fables and parables, was born in Anatolia. ...Leonardo da Vinci drew designs for a bridge over the Bosphorus, the strait that flows through Europe and Asia. It was never built (although two suspension bridges span the straight today). ...Alexander the Great conquered a large territory in what is now Turkey and cut the Gordion Knot in the Phrygian capital (Gordium) not far from Turkey's present-day capital (Ankara). DID YOU KNOW THAT…

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...Istanbul's Robert College (established in 1863), is the oldest American school outside the United States. ...Early Christians escaping Roman persecution nearly 2000 years ago sheltered in Cappadocia in Central Anatolia. ...The Amazons are supposed to have originated in Turkey's northeastern region. ...The first church ever built by man (St. Peter's Church) is located in Antioch (Antakya), in southern Turkey. DID YOU KNOW THAT…

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...The first Ecumenical Council was held in Iznik in Western Turkey. ...Democratic institutions of Patara, located on the Mediterannean region of Turkey, has been one of the sources of inspiration for the U.S. Constitution ...Suleyman the Magnificent (the famous Ottoman Sultan) was a poet who wrote over 3000 poems, some of them criticizing the greed of mankind. ...Anatolia is the location of the first known beauty contest, judged by Paris, with Aphrodite, Hera and Athena as leading participants. ...Anatolia was producing wine as early as 4000BC. ...Anatolia is the location of the Seven Churches of Asia. ...Anatolia is the origin of the names of Paris, Philadelphia and Europe. DID YOU KNOW THAT…

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IN SUMMARY IF YOU ARE IN SEARCH OF: NEW MARKETS FOR GROWTH NEW SOURCES TO INCREASE COMPETITIVENESS A PLACE YIELDING HIGH RETURNS A BRIDGE TO NEW MARKETS A HOLIDAY DESTINATION WHERE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE CREATE THE MOST BEAUTIFUL COLORS TURKEY IS THE RIGHT PLACE IN THE REGION

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME & ATTENTION Dr. Yılmaz ARGÜDEN yarguden@arge.com Prepared by ARGE Consulting A.S. of Istanbul www.arge.com