Applying the CARB/EPA Ozone Action Program Quantification Methodology to the Bay Area Spare the Air ProgramNational Air Quality ConferenceFebruary 15, 2005 San Francisco Emily Hopkins, BAAQMDEric N. Schreffler, ESTC: Applying the CARB/EPA Ozone Action Program Quantification Methodology to the Bay Area Spare the Air Program National Air Quality Conference February 15, 2005 San Francisco Emily Hopkins, BAAQMD Eric N. Schreffler, ESTC


Sparing our air for a healthier future since 1955: Sparing our air for a healthier future since 1955


Slide3: 9 Counties 5,340 Square Miles 22-member governing Board of elected officials S Santa Clara San Mateo Alameda San Francisco Contra Costa Solano Napa Sonoma Marin


Slide4: San Francisco Bay Area 1955 2004 3 Million People 6.7 Million People 1.7 Million Cars 5.1 Million Cars 35 Million Vehicle 126 Million Vehicle Miles Driven Daily Miles Driven Daily


Slide5: Sources of Bay Area Ozone Air Pollution


Summer Daily Emissions Ozone Precursors: Summer Daily Emissions Ozone Precursors BAAQMD Summer Emissions Year 2005 (Base Year 2002)


Slide7: Summer Spare the Air Program Voluntary intermittent program to reduce emissions on high ozone days, June through October Originated in Bay Area in 1991 2005 is our 15th summer Averages 6-7 days a year Air pollution education and outreach tool for Air Districts Primarily funded by federal Congestion Mitigation for Air Quality (CMAQ) grant


Spare the Air Measurement & Evaluation: Spare the Air Measurement & Evaluation


Why Evaluate?: Why Evaluate? To quantify program effects on behavior that reduces emissions Document results for CMAQ funding Quantify impacts for VMEP credit Satisfy local decision-makers and media Include programs in Early Action Compacts


Why Evaluate?: Why Evaluate? To Provide Management Information How can we make the campaign more effective in the future? Who is most likely to respond and reduce emissions? Profile reducers What messages will resonate with target market?


Spare the AirMeasurement & Evaluation: Spare the Air Measurement & Evaluation How can we make the leap from: marketing and public education to travel behavior and trip reduction to emission reduction?


Measurement in the Bay Area: Measurement in the Bay Area Measure travel and emission impacts of Spare the Air program BAAQMD has been measuring for over 10 years Methodology has evolved Can access data as it is being gathered Have used CARB/EPA method since 2002 Performed by True North Research and ESTC


CARB/EPA Methodology: CARB/EPA Methodology Standard survey questions Gauges self-reported trip reduction Improved questions in 2004 Assesses trip purpose (for Vehicle Miles Traveled - VMT) Adjusts self-reported reduction (50%)


Outputs: Outputs Measures: Level of awareness of program and air quality Responses to call for action Proportion of reducers Average driving trips reduced per reducer


Outputs: Outputs Program Effectiveness Awareness of program and air quality Responses to call for action Reduced emissions


Research Questions: Research Questions Did the program have any effects on residents? If yes, what types of people were influenced – who are the “reducers”? In what ways did they respond? How large were the effects?


Reducer Profile: Reducer Profile Analyzed historical data Collected new information about lifestyles and attitudes in 2004 Two approaches


Bay Area Findings - 2004: Bay Area Findings - 2004 Actions 7.24% of residents reduced trips Average self-reported reduction = 2.32 Adjusted net trip reduction = 1.16 Overall, 4.22% reduced usage of at least one product Garden equipment, lighter fluid, furniture polish most frequently mentioned


Bay Area Findings - 2004: Bay Area Findings - 2004 Awareness & Attitudes 58% aware it was Spare the Air day Most likely to reduce trips: - females - 45-64 years old - notified at workplace


Bay Area Impacts - 2004: Bay Area Impacts - 2004 Almost 350,000 people reduced 400,000 trips on Spare the Air days Equates to almost 2.6 million miles reduced Mostly reduced via linking and eliminating shopping and work trips Reduced: - 2 tons of NOx - 2 tons of ROG - 0.6 tons of PM10


Bay Area Impacts - 2004: Bay Area Impacts - 2004 4.2% of drivers also reduced consumer product use, resulting in a reduction of 0.23 tons of ROG per Spare the Air day


Benefits of Measurement and CARB/EPA Method : Benefits of Measurement and CARB/EPA Method Affords standardized method Available from CARB and EPA Provides comparable results over years Provides immediate results Access raw data in real time Provides additional legitimacy


Lessons Learned: Lessons Learned Don’t change questions in the middle of the stream! E-mail survey can increase sample size Flesh-out reducer attitudes Qualitative – not quantitative Use a firm that specializes in opinion research Draw upon expertise in driving behavior and emissions calculation


Benefits of Evaluation: Benefits of Evaluation Documents results for CMAQ funding Informs local decision-makers Interests and satisfies media Educates public Provides management information improve program messaging and targeting Quantifies impacts for VMEP credit May use for programs in Early Action Compacts


Areas to Further Develop : Areas to Further Develop Develop local adjustment factor Additional attitudinal results to feed campaign development Refinements for consumer products and wood burning Adopt standard questions & methods across air districts to share information & results


Slide27: Questions?