PTAS 07 Broder Cost Estimating for Comm Spacecraft

Cost Estimating for Commercial Communications Spacecraft Using Customer Based Parametrics: 

Cost Estimating for Commercial Communications Spacecraft Using Customer Based Parametrics SCEA 2002 Conference Melvin Broder June 13, 2002

Agenda: 

Agenda Spacecraft Cost Estimating Methodologies at Boeing Satellite Systems (BSS) Customer Requirements in the Telecommunications Business BSS Concurrent Integrated Engineering Laboratory (CIEL) Cost Estimating Based on a Spacecraft Complexity Figure of Merit (FOM) The Cost Tool Client

Spacecraft Cost Estimating MethodologiesUsed at Boeing Satellite Systems: 

Spacecraft Cost Estimating Methodologies Used at Boeing Satellite Systems USCM #7 (#8 in work) Commercial Models PRICE SEER Parametric Models Weight by Subsystem Dollar per pound, kilowatt, Kilogram By Analogy CIEL Cost Client In-Family Bid Models Customer Parameters

Sampling of BSS Telecom Customers Covering Wide Range of Markets: 

Sampling of BSS Telecom Customers Covering Wide Range of Markets Business Segments High Data Rate Transport Broadband Access & Content Delivery Mobile and Portable Services Government Programs

Satellite Performance Typically Defined by Class of Service : 

Satellite Performance Typically Defined by Class of Service Fixed Service Broadcast Service Mobile Service

Customers Provide Requirements as “Beams All Over the Earth”: 

Ku Band C Band Customers Provide Requirements as “Beams All Over the Earth” Cost estimating problem: convert “Beams All Over the Earth” to spacecraft carrying payloads to cost of transponders, antennas, solar arrays etc.

BSS Product Lines Offer a Wide Range of Telecom Solutions : 

BSS Product Lines Offer a Wide Range of Telecom Solutions Payload (Kg) 160 to 300 300 to 600 2,000 to 2,200 1,550 to 1,800 450 to 1,000 Dry Weight (Kg) 500 to 900 1,200 to 1,900 2,600 to 2,900 2,500 to 3,200 1,600 to 2,300 Payload (KW) 1-2 2-10 5-6 6-10 8-15 Life (Yr) 12 to 15 12 to 15 10 to 12 12 15+ Transponders 20-24 48-60 DSP DSP 80-112 First Launched 1980 1992 2000 2000 1999 Boeing 376 Boeing 601 & 601HP Boeing 702 Boeing 601 MEO Boeing 702 GEM

CIEL Usage During Campaign is Evolving: 

CIEL Usage During Campaign is Evolving Configuration brainstorming Pursue Phase Optional pre-RFP 1 session 1-2 sessions 3-4 sessions 1+ sessions RFP Pre-RFI or Unsolicited Proposals Session RFI Baseline Design Work actions Finalize Baseline Design Detailed subsystem design vs. required 1 or 2 Trades, options CR Concept Review Finalize Design DR Design Review Create trade space for customer Point design for point of departure Session Session Session Session Session Session Negotiations Design Changes Session Customer requested changes or BAFO configuration Proposal Submitted

CIEL Design Session Flow: 

CIEL Design Session Flow 4 hour design session

Client / Server Interaction: 

Client / Server Interaction CALTECH developed software Cost Tool is a Client

Design Parameter Set - N x N Matrix: 

Design Parameter Set - N x N Matrix Total of 7200+ parameters Receiver Publisher

One Output of CIEL Session is a Block Diagram that ‘Closes’ on Design: 

One Output of CIEL Session is a Block Diagram that ‘Closes’ on Design Cost Drivers Vs. Cost Accounting

Most Input Parameters Derived from Frequency Plan, Block Diagram & SuperSheet: 

Most Input Parameters Derived from Frequency Plan, Block Diagram & SuperSheet

Figure of Merit Equation Tracks Expert Opinion on Ranking S/C Complexity: 

Figure of Merit Equation Tracks Expert Opinion on Ranking S/C Complexity Parameters P/L Power # Freq. Bands For each Band: # Uplinks # Downlinks Total # LO’s # Feed Horns

A Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) Converts the Figure of Merit to Cost: 

A Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) Converts the Figure of Merit to Cost

The Bus CER Uses the Figure of Merit and Other Bus Factors : 

The Bus CER Uses the Figure of Merit and Other Bus Factors

Nonrecurring Cost is a Factor of Recurring Cost Based on “Heritage Generator”: 

Nonrecurring Cost is a Factor of Recurring Cost Based on “Heritage Generator”

Cost Client Turns Tech Parameters into Cost Projections : 

Cost Client Turns Tech Parameters into Cost Projections CERs are stored here

Tool Uses VBA for Excel to Automate Options: 

Tool Uses VBA for Excel to Automate Options

Three Alternative Methods of Entering FOM Parameters: 

Three Alternative Methods of Entering FOM Parameters

CIEL Output is Provided as Parameter Values to the N x N Matrix: 

CIEL Output is Provided as Parameter Values to the N x N Matrix

Risk Implementation Uses Expert Opinion: 

Risk Implementation Uses Expert Opinion Weighted Average of Experts

Summary of Performance to Date: 

Summary of Performance to Date Issues Does not generate lower level product costs Does not separate labor and material Untested on new technologies Programs that do not fall within historical norms Validation Original data fit to CERs had acceptable limits: +/- 7% when compared to bids and estimates at completion of programs in work About 15% of the data points were outside these limits 5 test cases have had +/- 5% at total spacecraft cost