Handheld Multimodal Interfaces Technology, Markets, and Opportunities : Handheld Multimodal Interfaces Technology, Markets, and Opportunities Jordan Cohen
CTO Voice Signal
February 2005
Baltimore, Maryland
Multimodal Communications Thru the Ages : Multimodal Communications Thru the Ages
Characteristics of Multimodal Interfaces : Characteristics of Multimodal Interfaces Transparent
Easy to Learn
Easy to use
Robust
Flexible
More than one input mode
Mode Choice
Adaptability over Time (Mobile Requirement)
Efficient
Accommodate Adverse Conditions
Stable
Combined Modes often Quicker
Superior Error Handling
Simplified Language
Mode Switching Facilitates Error Recovery
Mutual Disambiguation Possible for Simultaneous Inputs
Sharon Oviatt, “Multimodal Interfaces”, 2002
The First Computer : The First Computer
The Mainframe - IBM 3090 : The Mainframe - IBM 3090
Famous Predictions : Famous Predictions “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”
(Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943)
The Easy-To-Use PC : The Easy-To-Use PC
Down to the Pocket PC : Down to the Pocket PC
The Shape of Multimodal Interfaces : The Shape of Multimodal Interfaces
Famous Predictions : Famous Predictions “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
Western Union internal memo, 1876.
The Early Car Phone : The Early Car Phone
And There Were Cell Phones : And There Were Cell Phones Motorola Made the Phone Portable!
Martin Cooper, April 3, 1973
First Public Cell Phone Call (non-car phone)
The Ubiquitous Computing Platform : The Ubiquitous Computing Platform Digital Cellular Market
(Phones Shipped) data from Texas Instruments
* - Projection
Cell Phone
MP3 players – what are they? : MP3 players – what are they? Name comes from type of file (MPEG), audio layer three – MP3
Key to popularity is file compression
Some phones have MP3 play back capability
Usually separate units
TODAY’S 3D MOBILE GAME HARDWARE : TODAY’S 3D MOBILE GAME HARDWARE
Things to Think About: Features : Things to Think About: Features Text (SMS)
Wireless Internet (3G)
Voice Dialing
MP3
Ringtones
Push-to-talk
Games
Photo/Video
Headsets (Bluetooth)
Chargers
A Sign of the Times : A Sign of the Times “ I have always wished that my computer would be as easy to use as my telephone. My wish has come true. I no longer know how to use my telephone.”
Bjarne Stroustrop (originator of C++)
Slide18 : Enhanced Personal Information Managers
Calendars
Address Books
Application Launchers
Time management tools
Advanced calculators
Statistical tools
Graphics design tools
Audio design tools
Thousands of ebooks
www.palmone.com/us/software CRM
Education
Finance
Government
Health care
Law
Real estate
Reference books
SFA
U.S. Navy Business and Professional Over 23,000 available Palm OS® titles!
Killer app? : Killer app? Obvious strong sellers:
Games, especially casual
PIM and calendar tools
Less obvious:
Financial services
Health care
Emergency services
Chat and dating services
Average price of mobile applications:
$16 on Handango (mostly PDA)
$5 on carriers (mostly Java and BREW)
Strategy Analytics Survey (Kerr, 2004) : Strategy Analytics Survey (Kerr, 2004)
Evolution of Mobile Services : Evolution of Mobile Services Basic text messaging Hi, I’ll see you at 6 PM Regards, Bob Messaging Multimedia messaging with video Multimedia messaging with pictures and audio
Games : Games Other predictions to year 2006: $3,6 billion and $4,4 billion [21]
Mobile gamers in USA 7M in 2002 (IDC estimate), 2007 112,4M [21]
New mobile devices (big color displays, joystick, voices..)
Different run-time environments: Java key technology [20]
Licenced formats e.g. Codetoys ”Who Wants to be a Millionaire?”
Mobility enabling positioning based and other on-line interactive games
Entertainment in home, bus... Affordable device nearly all (in future)
Mobile gaming revenue prediction [19], Play Away: The future of mobile entertainment (2002)
Smart phones : Smart phones Smart phones as hybrid products
Cell phone features (esp. voice)
PDA features (esp. PIM)
Indirect market entry by incumbents
Nokia
palmOne
Microsoft
Industry ambiguity
New suppliers, competitors, customers
Competition from separate products
Cross-industry alliances to share capabilities
PDA industry
Cell phone industry
Smart phone
PC, PDA, Cell Phone sales (2000-2002) : PC, PDA, Cell Phone sales (2000-2002) Source: Assinform / NetConsulting Millions of Units
Operating Systems : Operating Systems Smartphone
Windows Powered environment using familiar Microsoft software
Outlook capabilities, Windows Media Player, infrared beaming, and MSN Messenger
Programmable using Microsoft Mobile Development Toolkit (incl. in The Smartphone Developer Kit)
www.microsoft.com/mobile/smartphone/default.asp
Operating Systems : Operating Systems Symbian OS Version 7.0s
Voice Activated Phonebook (VAP): Dialing with Discrete Commands : No user training: Unlike old voice dialing, VAP works right out of the box, and voice-activates every name in the phonebook, no matter how large.
Multimodal: User can dial by voice, or key press. Dialogs are presented on the display, and played through the earpiece for total eyes free dialing
Eyes-free, helpful voice guide: Intuitive dialog is easy to use the very first time and doesn’t require looking at the display.
Listening indicators: Users can see visual (ear icon) and hear (beep) cues when to speak.
Dial from the entire phonebook: When multiple numbers are stored, the system asks which one to dial. Voice Activated Phonebook (VAP): Dialing with Discrete Commands Click to
Start VSuite VSuite Core Feature Index
Comments from Time.com : Comments from Time.com
"...Now there's something infinitely better: it's called "speaker-independent" voice recognition, and the best one out by far is from Voice Signal...this million-dollar technology might already be in your phone. Have a look. If not, trade it in, because this stuff is awesome!..."
WILSON ROTHMAN
Time Magazine, “Gadget of the Week”, Feb. 4, 2004
Voice Activated Phonebook (VAP): Dialing with Natural Commands : Voice Activated Phonebook (VAP): Dialing with Natural Commands Freedom, Flexibility, Convenience: Natural Commands enhance the VSuite 1.x experience by allowing users to accomplish tasks with single, natural voice commands.
What – Who – Where Paradigm
What ? Call, Send Message?
To whom? Person or Number?
To which device? Mobile? Email? Pager?
Smart Dialog: When VSuite isn’t sure what you said, it will ask, “Did you say?” allowing for instant correction. Click to
Start VSuite VSuite Upgrade Index
Voice Activated Message Setup : Voice Activated Message Setup Click to
Start VSuite Fastest and Simplest Method to Set Up and Address Messages:
Single key press
Compatible with any message client and protocol (SMS, EMS, MMS, Email, Instant Messenger,) In just a few seconds, the messaging client is open, addressed, and waiting for text input.
Any name or number in phonebook can be addressed by voice
VSuite Upgrade Index
A Messaging Application : A Messaging Application Demonstration
Customers? - Nokia prognosis for 3G mobile communication : Customers? - Nokia prognosis for 3G mobile communication Monthly income pr. user in euro (1 euro = 1 USD ca.) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Location based services Commercials Entertainment Information services Payment transactions Music and video Internet surfing Download from internet Chat on internet Multimedia messages Text messages Vide conferencing Normal speech Fixed subscription fees Div. telecomm. Photo messages
Number of people online by language spoken (http://www.glreach.com/globstats/) : Number of people online by language spoken (http://www.glreach.com/globstats/)
British Student Cell Phone Penetration : British Student Cell Phone Penetration A quarter of 7 to 10-year-olds own mobile phones, according to a survey of 2,000 children and their parents by the market analysts Mintel. The figures show that the proportion of primary school pupils with mobiles has almost doubled from 13% in 2001.
(Telegraph, 28 April 2004)
There are as many cell phone in Britain as there are people 10 years old or more.
96% of 15 to 24-year-olds own a cellphone and cannot function normally without one
Messaging : Messaging Short Message Service (SMS)
Up to 160 characters of text in length: words or numbers or an alphanumeric combination
Non-text based short messages (for example, in binary format) are also supported. These are used for ringtones and logos services for instance
SMS is a store and forward service: short messages are not sent directly from sender to recipient, but always via an SMS Center (SMSC)
Short messages can be sent and received simultaneously with GSM voice, Data and Fax calls
Smileys – from the SMS world! : Smileys – from the SMS world! :) Original smiley
:-) Classic smiley
:-( Frown
:@ Ouch!
:-& Tongue-tied
:-# My lips are sealed ~#:-( Bad hair day
(-: Sender is left-handed
{} No comment
<:-) Dumb question
#-) Partied all night
:-$ Put your money where your mouth is
Messaging : Messaging Multimedia Message Service (MMS)
The data speed in the networks must be at least 14.4 kbit/s for carrying MMS messages.
MMS messages are currently between 30 kB and 100 kB in size
They can contain still images (JPEG, GIF, WBMP), text, voice (AMR voice), audioclips or videoclips
MMS transport is done using WAP over GPRS (or CSD) transport. WAP push features are used to deliver the message from server to receiving phone.
British Commentary on Messaging: : British Commentary on Messaging: Texts overtook phone calls as the favoured means of contacting someone by mobile in 2003. Research found more than eight out of 10 under-25s are more likely to text than call. At New Year revellers smashed the record for the most messages in a day, tapping out 111 million in the first 24 hours of 2004
Nearly a quarter of British teenagers text-message their friends more often than they talk to their families according to a study of more than 400 girls carried out on behalf of the Guide Association. A fifth claim never to talk to parents and siblings.
From www.didyouknow.cd/sms : From www.didyouknow.cd/sms If the universe did start with a bang when God loved and the angels sang one of the sparks that flew chased time to become you
if kisses wer rain id send u showers, if fun was time id send u hrs, if u needed a frnd id send u me!
As i lie on my bed and look at the stars, and the moon, and the sky... i wonder... WHAT HAPPENED TO MY ROOF?!?!?!? here's my halo made of glass mess with me and i'll kick ur ass
when God gave us friendships he tried to be fair, but when i got you, i got more than my share!
Ek dwaal doeloos verby Jupitor. Waar is jy? Ek verdwaal iewers in die Amasone maar waar is jy? In my drome soek ek jou maar jy is waar jy moet wees... in my hart
From Tech Central Station : From Tech Central Station A survey of Italian children between the ages of nine and ten found that, incredibly, 56 percent owned cell phones. This was the finding of a study published on 8 July 2003, coordinated by Francesco Pira, a lecturer at the University of Trieste.
New research released by the research group, mobileYouth has highlighted the growing number of young children with mobile phones in Britain . The study conducted across the 5-24 year old market highlights that there are now 400,000 children in the UK under the age of 10 owning a mobile phone, as against only 80,000 in 2000. (Cellular News, 12 Aug, 2003)
From IT Facts (www.itfacts.biz) : From IT Facts (www.itfacts.biz) Taiwan and Hong Kong lead the world in terms of mobile penetration - there are 110 mobile phones for every 100 inhabitants of Taiwan, and 105.75 mobile phones for every 100 people in Hong Kong. Other countries ranked lower in International Telecommunications Union annual survey, with US reaching 57% mobile penetration by the end of 2004
Dec 18, 04
Gartner said that it expected 20 mln smartphones to ship in 2006 compared to about 13 mln PDAs
More on phone handsets : More on phone handsets By 2006, more ‘smart’ phones than PCs.
80% of new phones will be color.
80% of new phones will have Internet.
74% handsets sold this year will be GSM.
Tip: Use GSM handsets with shared plans.
Internationalization esp. imp. in mobile market:
By 2006, Asia Pacific will have 45% of mobile subscribers.
433 million handsets this year, 35% sold in China alone.
Thank You : Thank You The End
Jordan Cohen
Jrc@voicesignal.com