michelle 2

Slide1: 

Michelle Colley UK Climate Impacts Programme www.ukcip.org.uk Application and development of climate change scenarios for impact studies: The UKCIP approach

Outline: 

Outline Introduction to UKCIP UKCIP tools UKCIP studies Forward look

What is UKCIP?: 

What is UKCIP? Funded by the UK Government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) since 1997 Helps decision-makers develop effective responses to climate change impacts, by: promoting stakeholder-led, problem-oriented research providing core tools providing guidance/advice encouraging integrated approaches More than 200 actively involved stakeholders More than 2500 contacts

UKCIP study stakeholders: 

UKCIP study stakeholders Department of Health (DoH) Department of the Environment (Northern Ireland) Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Derbyshire County Council Devon Wildlife Trust DTLR Planning Directorate Dúchas The Heritage Service Duchy of Cornwall East Midlands Airport East Midlands Link East Riding of Yorkshire Council Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) English Heritage English Nature Environment Agency Environment and Heritage Service (Northern Ireland) Farming and Rural Conservation Agency Farming Wildlife Advisory Group Federation of Small Businesses Food Technopole Forestry Commission Forum for the Future Government Office for London Government Office for the East Midlands Government Office for the North West Government Office for the South East Government Office for the South West Government Office for the West Midlands Government Office for Yorkshire and the Humber Greater London Authority Hambleton DC Hampshire County Council Humber Emergency Planning Services Isle of Man Government Joint Nature Conservation Committee Kent County Council Kingston Upon Hull City Council Komex Clarke Bond Lancaster University Leeds Health Authority Leicestershire County Council London Electricity London First London Tourist Board Marsh UK Midlands Environmental Business Club National Assembly for Wales (formerly the Welsh Office) National Farmers' Union (NFU) National Parks and Wildlife (Republic of Ireland) National Trust National Trust for Scotland NatWest NFU North West Regional Association North West Water North York Moors National Park Authority Northamptonshire County Council Norwich Union Notcutts Nottinghamshire County Council Notts Wildlife Trust Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology Peak District National Park PROSPER Regional Assembly Regional Chamber for Yorkshire & Humberside Rolls-Royce Rotherham MBC Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine Royal Horticultural Society Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Scottish Association for Marine Science Scottish Environmental Protection Agency Scottish Executive Scottish Natural Heritage Severn Trent Water Shepherd Building Group Acordis AEA Technology AEG Anglian Water Arkleton Trust Arla Foods Plc Asda Stores Limited Associated British Ports Association of British Insurers Association of Electricity Producers Association of London Government (ALG) AvestaPolarit Stainless AXA Insurance Blaby District Council Boston District Council Bristol City Council Business in the Community Cadbury Carlton TV Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA) Cornwall College Cornwall County Council Cornwall Enterprise Ltd Corporation of London Country Land & Business Association Country Life Magazine Countryside Agency Countryside Council for Wales Crown Estate De Montford University Deborah Clark consultancy SNIFFER (Scotland & Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research) South West Regional Assembly South West Regional Development Agency South West Tourism South West Water South Yorkshire Passenger Transport Executive St George Plc St George’s Medical School States of Jersey and Guernsey Surrey County Council Sustainability North West Sustainability South West (SSW) SWEB SWEL Tarmac Central Thames Gateway Thames Water The Forestry Authority Toyota UK Transport for London (TfL) TXU Europe Power Wales Tourist Board Wales Wildlife Link Welsh Development Agency Welsh Local Government Association Welsh Water Wessex Water West Sussex County Council Westcountry Television Westcountry Tourist Board Wildlife Trusts Wilkinson Woodland Trust WWF-UK Yorkshire Electricity Yorkshire Forward Yorkshire Tourist Board Yorkshire Water Services

Model progress of work: 

Model progress of work Scoping study Integration into decision-making “What if?” Quantify impacts Adaptation Strategies Engineering Solutions Awareness-raising

Tools for integrated assessment : 

Tools for integrated assessment Climate change scenarios (UKCIP98, UKCIP02) Socio-economic scenarios (2001) Risk and uncertainty in decision-making (2003) Methodology for costing the impacts of climate change (forthcoming) Datasets (soils, land cover, designated sites etc.) - quality assurance, integration, GIS All tools and data funded by DEFRA

CO2 in the IPCC emissions scenarios: 

CO2 in the IPCC emissions scenarios

Global temperature (2000 - 2100): 

Global temperature (2000 - 2100)

Changes in climatic averages: 

Changes in climatic averages

Changes in climatic extremes: 

Changes in climatic extremes

Why socio-economic scenarios for impacts assessments?: 

Why socio-economic scenarios for impacts assessments? Climate change will take place in a society very different from today’s We need to develop views of the world in which future climate changes will be felt Together, climate change and socio-economic scenarios provide an underlying framework for impacts assessments

Slide13: 

Four socio-economic scenarios for the UK Storylines were developed for each of the scenarios for 2050s: values and policy economic development settlement and planning impact domains quantified values for some key indicators (GDP, area of organic farming) for 2020s

Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making: 

Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making Report providing guidance on handling climate change-related risks and uncertainties A framework for decision-making – eight key stages Key questions to answer at each stage Tools and techniques to inform each stage

Methodology for costing climate change impacts: 

Methodology for costing climate change impacts STEP 1 - identification and quantification of impacts STEP 2 - valuation of these impacts in accordance with standard practices in economic analysis cost (benefit) of a CC impact on an exposure unit (£) = expected impact on exposure unit (number of units affected) X appropriate economic unit value (£ per affected unit)

Slide16: 

All data integrated and analysed via GIS Data for studies Climate scenarios Socio-economic scenarios Land cover Topography Soils Geology Designated sites Administrative boundaries Sea level rise Agri-environmental zones Agricultural census data

Slide17: 

University of Oxford Cranfield University University of Newcastle upon Tyne Central Science Laboratory University of Nottingham West Devon Borough Council W.S. Atkins Consultants Ltd. Posford Haskoning IACR – Rothamsted Horticultural Research International High Weald AONB Unit University of Exeter Centre for Ecology and Hydrology University of Gloucestershire Forest Research University of London Universitat Hamburg UMIST University of Southampton Oxford Environmental Solutions Kings College London Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research University of Aberdeen Arup Research and Development Severn Trent Water Halcrow Group Limited Tyndall Centre Heriot-Watt University University of Reading Forestry Commission Scottish Agricultural College Yorkshire Water Services Ltd. University of Glasgow Land Use Consultants Loughborough University University of York Entec UK Ltd. Environment Agency Cardiff University Egniol Limited Building Research Establishment Birmingham University University of Strathclyde HR Wallingford Ltd. Licenced data users

Slide18: 

Data modelling – East Anglian coastline

Slide19: 

GIS interface for modelling

Sub-UK studies: current status (March 2003): 

Integrated assessment undertaken British Irish Council Initiative Scotland scoping study completed December 1999. Further studies underway. East Midlands scoping study completed July 2000. REGIS study complete in North West England and East Anglia. Eastern region study underway South West England scoping study completed January 2003 North East England scoping study completed November 2002. London scoping study completed October 2002 ; Partnership continues. South East England scoping study completed November 1999. Regional co-ordinator appointed by SECCP to take forward next stage work. Wales scoping study completed February 2000. West Midlands scoping study underway North West England scoping study completed December 1998. Climate Group continues. Northern Ireland scoping study complete. To be launched shortly Sub-UK studies: current status (March 2003) Yorkshire and Humberside scoping study completed June 2002. Local partnership continues

Main features of sub-UK/ regional scoping studies: 

Main features of sub-UK/ regional scoping studies Led by regional decision-makers – public and private Review of existing information by literature review and stakeholder consultation - not primary research Value for money (ca. £50K) and quick (ca. 9 months) Short reports - useful for policy-makers and good communications tools - capture attention of regional media Empowers decision-makers to get a handle on a global issue at a local level Stakeholders define the study specification, outputs are tuned for policy from outset Formation of regional climate change partnerships

Slide22: 

Forward look - Built Environment study

Forward look - MarClim study Many species reach their geographic limits around the UK coastline: 

Forward look - MarClim study Many species reach their geographic limits around the UK coastline

Forward look - MarClim study : 

Forward look - MarClim study and we have good time series data for a number of intertidal species

Forward look - MarClim study : 

Forward look - MarClim study We compare the past record of change to measured change in the environment re-survey sites to establish current range limits of species

Forward look - MarClim study : 

Forward look - MarClim study and use this information to make future predictions for species distributions model future range limits under UKCIP scenarios

Conclusions: some benefits ofthe UKCIP approach: 

Conclusions: some benefits of the UKCIP approach Use of common tools in studies ensures consistent approach Conducting studies in a common framework provides a more realistic assessment of climate change impacts Stakeholder-led translates a global problem into a local reality Gives decision-making “ownership” of the climate change issue Delivers information for regional and local planning, and for national level policy-making Everyone can benefit from the partnership structure

Slide28: 

UK Climate Impacts Programme www.ukcip.org.uk