Ozone in the Four Corners RegionFour Corners Oil and Gas ConferenceMay 2004: Ozone in the Four Corners Region Four Corners Oil and Gas Conference May 2004


Slide7: Determined by USEPA Health-based Periodically reviewed and compared to most recent health research data National Ambient Air Quality Standards


Slide8: Elevated 1-hour ozone monitored at various sites around the county in the 1990s NMED monitoring for ozone began in late 1990s at 2 sites 8-hour concentrations approach NAAQS Ground-level Ozone in San Juan County


Slide15: Formation of Four Corners Ozone Task Force NMED public meetings - Spring 2002 Task Force formed in October 2002 Task Force recommended EAC in November 2002 Early Action Compact signed in Dec. 2002


Slide16: Early Action Compact for Ozone Federal EPA program for cities and counties that may exceed federal ozone standard Early analysis and planning Local control No cost to the community Can opt out at any time No mandatory federal or state measures Goal: Maintain San Juan County’s compliance with the ozone standard through 2007


Slide17: Questions to be answered: What causes elevated ozone concentrations in San Juan County? What will ozone concentrations be in the future (2007 and/or 2012)? What sources can be controlled to reduce ozone? How much control of air pollution is necessary to continue to meet the national standards?


Slide18: Dec 31, 2002 - No later than Dec 31, 2002, compacts must be completed, signed by local, State (or Tribal) and EPA officials, and formally submitted. June 16, 2003 – Compact areas identify/describe local control measures that are being considered during the planning process. Deadline for describing the control measures must be met to maintain program eligibility.  March 31, 2004 - The resulting local plan, including control measures, must be completed and submitted to the State by this date for inclusion in the SIP. Dec 31, 2004 - States must submit a  SIP consisting of the local plan, including all adopted control measures that demonstrate attainment of  the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by Dec 31, 2007. Dec 31, 2005 - Compact areas must implement the local control measures that have been incorporated into the SIP. Dec 31, 2006 – Compact areas must certify progress toward attainment since previous milestone, eg, continued implementation.   Dec 31, 2007 – area must attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS.  Failure to attain by this date will result in the nonattainment designation becoming effective. Early Action Compact Milestones


Slide20: San Juan County Ozone Initiatives Emissions inventory improvement Photochemical modeling Enhanced monitoring Public information and outreach


Slide21: Emissions Inventory Improvement NMED inventory NMOGA information Mobile sources Biogenic sources Wildfires


Slide22: How is 2007 Emissions Inventory compiled? Year 2007 emissions estimates ‘grown’ from 2002 using growth and control measures developed and/or recommended by EPA Includes population growth, economic projections, etc. from EPA and states when available Emissions projections for all western states in 36 km modeling domain Control measures include federal and state regulations currently “on the books”


Slide23: Photochemical Modeling Demonstrates compliance for 2007 and 2012 Ozone concentrations slightly decrease Tool to determine what causes ozone


Slide24: Air Quality Modeling Domain


Slide25: Photochemical Model


Slide26: What does the Model tell us about 2007? San Juan County expected to remain in attainment of 8-hour ozone standard through 2007 by a substantial margin Concentrations of ozone are predicted to remain nearly the same in the next three years.


Slide27: Substation 2003 design value: 74.7 ppb Substation 2007 design value: 74.37 ppb Bloomfield 2003 design value: 74.3 ppb Bloomfield 2007 design value: 72.49 ppb EPA 8-hour ozone standard: 84 ppb What does the Model tell us about 2007?


Slide28: Sensitivity Runs Additional power plants: STEAG (1569 tpy NOx, 672.2 tpy VOC) and Star Lake (525 tpy NOx, 225 tpy VOC) Accelerated oil and gas development (BLM’s 2012 by 2007) Re-calculated motor fleet emissions assuming an older fleet of cars (Increases NOx by 25%, VOC by 60%, CO by 10%) Biogenic emissions in Four Corners region doubled Area source emissions in Four Corners doubled


Slide29: Sensitivity Run Conclusions Additional power plants and oil and gas development are predicted to have little impact on ozone concentrations. Uncertainties in the mobile and area source inventories have little impact on ozone concentrations. Significant increase in VOCs is necessary to increase ozone concentrations.


Slide30: Conclusions of Modeling Study “Background” ozone in the west contributes 65-90% of total ozone in San Juan County Biogenic emissions contribute more to ozone concentrations than anthropogenic emissions Most anthropogenic contribution is from within San Juan County, not due to transport Relative contribution from mobile, area, oil and gas, utilities in San Juan County is comparable


Slide31: Passive Ozone Monitoring Summer of 2003 USEPA, NMED, Stakeholder Collaboration 8 sites total (1 co-located with existing monitor) Significantly high ozone concentrations in western and northeastern parts of San Juan County


Slide33: Outreach and Information Partnering with NM Dept. of Health Collaboration with local government to provide public service announcements USEPA Education Grant


Slide35: Current Project Status and Next Steps Clean Air Action Plan developed Passive VOC monitoring summer 2004 Task Force meetings/workshops Continued outreach


CAAP Components: Public Outreach Website Public Service Announcements Educational materials for children Voluntary Program for Emissions Reductions To be developed with input from stakeholders Could include variety of sources Your participation is welcome CAAP Components


Slide37: For more information about ozone and the San Juan County EAC… Andy Berger (505) 955-8034 andy_berger@nmenv.state.nm.us Ozone: www.nmenv.state.nm.us/aqb Task Force: www.nmenv.state.nm.us/ozonetf