20080129e1

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HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY Briefing to the Legislative Council Panel on Financial Affairs 29 January 2008

DISCUSSION TOPICS: 

Updates on Currency Stability Banking Financial Infrastructure Hong Kong as an International Financial Centre Exchange Fund DISCUSSION TOPICS

HONG KONG DOLLAR HAS WEAKENED: 

HONG KONG DOLLAR HAS WEAKENED Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate

INTERBANK LIQUIDITY : 

Aggregate Balance INTERBANK LIQUIDITY

Hong Kong Dollar Spot and 12-month Forward: 

Hong Kong Dollar Spot and 12-month Forward HONG KONG DOLLAR – MARKET EXPECTATIONS

HONG KONG-DOLLAR AND US-DOLLAR INTEREST RATES: 

HONG KONG-DOLLAR AND US-DOLLAR INTEREST RATES

WIDENED YIELD SPREAD OF EXCHANGE FUND BILLS OVER HIBORs: 

WIDENED YIELD SPREAD OF EXCHANGE FUND BILLS OVER HIBORs 1-month EFB yields vs HIBOR Up to mid-Dec 07

RAPIDLY GROWING RTGS TURNOVER: 

RAPIDLY GROWING RTGS TURNOVER RTGS vs stock market turnover

INTRADAY REPO TURNOVER: 

INTRADAY REPO TURNOVER

ADDRESSING THE INCREASED DEMAND FOR EXCHANGE FUND PAPER: 

ADDRESSING THE INCREASED DEMAND FOR EXCHANGE FUND PAPER Increase the supply of Exchange Fund paper via tap issues Consistent with Currency Board principles as the Monetary Base remains fully backed by foreign reserves Primary objective is to meet the increased demand of Exchange Fund paper for managing intraday liquidity

YIELD SPREAD BETWEEN EXCHANGE FUND BILLS AND HIBOR NARROWING: 

YIELD SPREAD BETWEEN EXCHANGE FUND BILLS AND HIBOR NARROWING Note: The Viewpoint article on 20 Dec 07 suggested that there might be a need for additional Exchange Fund paper and the article on 3 Jan 08 indicated that the case for increasing the supply of Exchange Fund paper has become clearer.

FACTORS AFFECTING CURRENCY STABILITY: 

Sub-prime crisis Monetary and financial conditions on the Mainland Inflation FACTORS AFFECTING CURRENCY STABILITY

THE US SUB-PRIME CRISIS CONTINUES: 

THE US SUB-PRIME CRISIS CONTINUES Falling house prices Depressed housing activity Housing market continues to deteriorate

Increasing risks of a recession in the US: 

Increasing risks of a recession in the US There are increasing talks that the US economy might dip into or is already in a recession. US GDP growth Note: Q4 07 growth figure is market forecast (source: Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS IN ACTION: 

CENTRAL BANKS IN ACTION Policy rates Interest rate spreads Co-ordinated central bank actions to inject liquidity Major central banks cut policy rates

FINANCIAL MARKET STILL IN TURBULENCE : 

FINANCIAL MARKET STILL IN TURBULENCE US commercial paper outstanding Weak US data, persistent credit crisis and fears that a US recession will likely drag down the global economy led to a renewed bout of risk aversion and global equity market sell-off Global equity markets

IMPACT OF THE SUB-PRIME PROBLEM ON HONG KONG: 

IMPACT OF THE SUB-PRIME PROBLEM ON HONG KONG Local financial markets have been more volatile but no systematic problem has emerged Individual banks in Hong Kong may suffer from their investment in asset-backed securities, but unlikely to affect their financial soundness

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ON THE MAINLAND: 

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ON THE MAINLAND Widening of balance-of-payments surplus Faster appreciation of the renminbi Continued capital inflows, and rapid accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves Continued increases in reserve requirement of the banking sector Large issuance of PBoC paper to sterilise excess liquidity created by the acquisition of foreign reserves

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ON THE MAINLAND: 

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ON THE MAINLAND Rising inflation Raising interest rates and using price controls to curb inflation Implementing policies to encourage orderly capital outflows Large demand for investment instruments by the non-state sector Development of capital markets against the background of supply-and-demand imbalance

Key Drivers of Inflation: 

Key Drivers of Inflation HOUSING RENTS AND FOOD PRICES PUSH UP HONG KONG’S INFLATION

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HELPS CHECK HONG KONG’S INFLATION: 

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HELPS CHECK HONG KONG’S INFLATION Productivity Growth Remains Strong

CURRENCY NOTES: 

CURRENCY NOTES HK$10 Polymer Note Put into circulation in July 2007 Extensive public education programme launched Public response favourable so far Additional 50 million notes to cater for Chinese New Year demand The HKMA will evaluate public acceptance and technical performance of the note in two years

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Local AIs Remain Well Capitalised Period-end figures

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Liquidity Levels Remain High

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

Higher Domestic Loan Demand BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Quarterly increases (in HK$ bn)

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Net Interest Margin Increasing Period-average figures * Annualised figure

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Asset Quality Remains Sound * Annualised figure

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Period-end figures Residential Mortgage Lending in Negative Equity Declined Further

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 

BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Implications of the sub-prime crisis Aggregate sub-prime or sub-prime-related exposures of local banks are not material relative to their total assets No systemic impact on the banking sector However, profitability of individual banks with sub-prime or sub-prime-related exposures is likely to be affected

REVIEW OF HKMA’S WORK ON BANKING STABILITY: 

Aims to make recommendations on focus and priorities of the HKMA’s banking supervisory functions and policies to be developed in the next five years Takes into account globalisation of finance and banking business increasing integration of the financial systems of Hong Kong and Mainland China growing complexity of banking products increasing reliance of banks on information technology increasing need to combat financial crime changing nature of supervision expectations of the community To be completed in second quarter of 2008 REVIEW OF HKMA’S WORK ON BANKING STABILITY

COMMERCIAL CREDIT REFERENCE AGENCY: 

The Commercial Credit Reference Agency (CCRA) will be expanded to cover sole proprietorships and partnerships on 1 March 2008. COMMERCIAL CREDIT REFERENCE AGENCY

ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING & COUNTER TERRORIST FINANCING: 

ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING & COUNTER TERRORIST FINANCING The Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering visited Hong Kong as part of a mutual evaluation of anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing measures. The report will be finalised in mid-2008. The HKMA amended its Supplement to the Guideline on Prevention of Money Laundering in November 2007 to take into account recent developments. The Industry Working Group on Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing has prepared several guidance papers on politically exposed persons, offshore companies, and address proof.

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE: 

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE To develop Hong Kong into a regional payment and settlement hub, enhancing Hong Kong’s role and status as an international financial centre New project development Electronic trading platform for Exchange Fund Bills and Notes Migration to SWIFTNet

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY: 

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Strategy for development of market infrastructure Adding new functions to payment systems promoting links and use of financial infrastructure Success in increasing turnover of RTGS systems and links with overseas systems Will continue to further strengthen Hong Kong’s multi-currency, multi-dimensional payment and settlement platform

EFFICIENT OPERATION OF THE PAYMENT SYSTEM: 

EFFICIENT OPERATION OF THE PAYMENT SYSTEM HK$ Bn

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE: 

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE Oversight of the clearing and settlement systems All local designated systems remain in compliance with the safety and efficiency requirements of the Clearing and Settlement Systems Ordinance Continued support rendered to the Process Review Committee in preparing the third Annual Report to the Financial Secretary.

HONG KONG AS AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE: 

Regional co-operation Developing bond market in Asia Promoting regional financial stability through active participation in an enhanced monitoring mechanism of Asia-Pacific central banks Providing input to regional financial co-operation initiatives Strengthening crisis management HONG KONG AS AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE

HONG KONG AS AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE: 

To continue the implementation of the Action Agenda of “China’s 11th Five-Year Plan and the Development of Hong Kong”, focussing on: (1) Renminbi business in HK promote continuous development of the renminbi bond market work further on the proposal for settlement of imports from the Mainland in renminbi (2) Use of HK’s platform for the orderly outflow of Mainland funds work closely with Mainland authorities on implementation of pilot scheme for direct foreign portfolio investments by Mainland individuals and further development of QDII schemes. HONG KONG AS AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE

Investment Objectives ofThe Exchange Fund: 

Investment Objectives of The Exchange Fund Investment objectives of the Exchange Fund: (1) to preserve capital; (2) to ensure that the entire Monetary Base at all times will be fully backed by highly liquid US dollar denominated assets; (3) to ensure sufficient liquidity for the purpose of maintaining monetary and financial stability; and (4) subject to (1) – (3), to achieve an investment return that will preserve the long-term purchasing power of the Fund.

Markets in 2007: 

Markets in 2007 Exchange rates: US dollar weakened against the euro and yen Equity markets: Foreign equities market rose in the 1H but retreated in the 2H as the US subprime mortgage crisis intensified Local equities market gained significantly on the back of ample liquidity but correction set in during Nov-Dec Interest rates: Monetary easing by major central banks Bond yields fell in general as risk appetite declined but money market rates rose on concerns about credit availability Credit spread widened significantly

Investment Income: 

Investment Income * Unaudited figures ^ Including dividends # Including interest

Change in Investment Income, Treasury’s Shareand Accumulated Surplus: 

Change in Investment Income, Treasury’s Share and Accumulated Surplus # The fixed rate of fee payment to Treasury for 2007 (w.e.f. 1 April 2007) is 7%. ^ Including dividends

Historical Change in Investment Income, Treasury’s Share and Accumulated Surplus: 

Historical Change in Investment Income, Treasury’s Share and Accumulated Surplus * unaudited figures ^ including dividends

Exchange FundAbridged Balance Sheet: 

Exchange Fund Abridged Balance Sheet Note 1: Under the new fee arrangement, the payment of $27.6 billion has been included in Fiscal Reserves Account balance of $464.6 billion. With the old arrangement, the return on Fiscal Reserves of $28.9 billion in 2006 was accrued under Other liabilities of $49.2 billion.

Exchange Fund Performance Against Investment Benchmark: 

Exchange Fund Performance Against Investment Benchmark

Investment Returnof the Exchange Fund: 

Investment Return of the Exchange Fund

Treasury Return Against Estimate: 

Treasury Return Against Estimate