NWS July05

Governor’s Drought Advisory Committee Meeting: 

Governor’s Drought Advisory Committee Meeting July 14, 2005 NOAA National Weather Service Gina Loss

June Statewide Temperature RankTemperatures again averaged near normal: 

June Statewide Temperature Rank Temperatures again averaged near normal June 49th coldest... 63rd warmest Of 111 years May 66th warmest NOAA National Climatic Data Center

June Temperature AnomaliesBelow normal across most of the state: 

June Temperature Anomalies Below normal across most of the state Temperatures generally near normal to 4 degrees below normal Small areas east and southeast near normal to 4 degrees above normal Western Region Climate Center

June Statewide Precipitation RanksMontana average above normal: 

NOAA National Climatic Data Center June Statewide Precipitation Ranks Montana average above normal 10th wettest of 111 years!! Much above normal May 51st wettest ... 61st driest April 32nd wettest March 27th wettest February record dry

June Percent of Normal PrecipitationAlmost all of state above to well above normal!: 

June Percent of Normal Precipitation Almost all of state above to well above normal! Only isolated areas below normal South central Southeast April 2005 NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO May 2005

Crop Year Percent of Normal PrecipitationMost of state near to above normal: 

Crop Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Most of state near to above normal Large areas well above normal Only isolated areas below normal West North central South central April-May 2005

Water Year Percent of Normal PrecipitationMost of state near to above normal: 

Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Most of state near to above normal Large areas well above normal Only isolated areas below normal West North central South central NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO October 2004 - May 2005

Water Year Precipitation In Inches: 

Water Year Precipitation In Inches NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO

Water Year Precipitation Totals In Inches: 

Water Year Precipitation Totals In Inches NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO

Historical Rank of PrecipitationSeveral locations have improved to ‘wettest’ perspective: 

Historical Rank of Precipitation Several locations have improved to ‘wettest’ perspective

June Mostly Unsettled: 

June Mostly Unsettled Very heavy precipitation recorded at many locations Moss Peak (western Montana)... over 9 inches Areas in Highwood Mountains... up to 12 inches Near Circle... 6 to 8 inches Severe weather reported on 23 days High winds, large hail and 7 tornados over eastern Montana. Most airport locations recorded more than normal June precipitation Great Falls and Baker received 3 times June average Great Falls was third wettest June of record Cut Bank was 4th wettest June Went from 12th driest water year at end of May to 13th wettest by end of June Many locations had wettest June since 1995 Temperatures averaged up to 3 degrees below normal Clover Meadow, near Cameron coolest...17F on the 8th Alzada warmest... 102F on the 22nd. Winds were generally below average, except over central portions of state Highest wind gust 95 mph at Fallon in a thunderstorm

July Departure from Average TempsNear average across the state: 

July Departure from Average Temps Near average across the state Average highs 0 to 4 degrees above normal over most of state 0 to 2 degrees below normal northwest Average lows 2 degrees above to 2 below normal across the state Western Region Climate Center High Temperatures Low Temperatures

Precipitation Totals July 1-12One inch or less across most of Montana: 

Precipitation Totals July 1-12 One inch or less across most of Montana NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO

Percent of Average Precip July 1-12Most of Montana less than 75% of normal thus far: 

Percent of Average Precip July 1-12 Most of Montana less than 75% of normal thus far Isolated areas 100% of normal or more South central Large areas less than 25% of normal West North central East High Plains Region Climate Center

Precipitation Totals July and Water Year 2005: 

Precipitation Totals July and Water Year 2005 JULY 1 - 12 WATER YEAR TO DATE ACTUAL NRML +/- % OF ACTUAL NRML +/- % OF PCPN PCPN NRML NRML PCPN PCPN NRML NRML WESTERN MONTANA BUTTE 0.15 0.64 -0.49 23 8.12 9.50 -1.38 85 KALISPELL 0.23 0.64 -0.41 36 13.13 13.99 -0.86 94 MISSOULA 0.00 0.49 -0.49 0 10.49 10.99 -0.50 95 MULLAN PASS 0.43 0.80 -0.37 54 32.86 31.35 1.51 105 SOUTHWEST MONTANA ALDER 17 S 0.00 1.28 -1.28 0 2.39 9.93 -7.54 24 BOULDER 0.68 0.60 0.08 113 7.32 8.11 -0.79 90 BELGRADE FIELD 0.19 0.58 -0.39 33 9.54 11.53 -1.99 83 BOZEMAN MSU 0.45 0.67 -0.22 67 14.00 15.24 -1.24 92 DILLON AIRPORT 0.45 0.51 -0.06 88 9.52 7.26 2.26 131 ENNIS 0.19 0.61 -0.42 31 8.92 10.27 -1.35 87 HELENA 0.03 0.56 -0.53 5 9.64 8.13 1.51 119 LAKEVIEW 0.00 0.83 -0.83 0 15.06 15.01 0.05 100 LIMA 0.08 0.74 -0.66 11 12.61 13.37 -0.76 94 TOWNSEND 0.83 0.60 0.23 138 9.09 7.59 1.50 120 WISDOM 0.23 0.53 -0.30 43 7.77 9.04 -1.27 86 NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO

Precipitation Totals July and Water Year 2005: 

Precipitation Totals July and Water Year 2005 JULY 1 - 12 WATER YEAR TO DATE ACTUAL NRML +/- % OF ACTUAL NRML +/- % OF PCPN PCPN NRML NRML PCPN PCPN NRML NRML CENTRAL MONTANA BILLINGS 1.34 0.58 0.76 231 11.89 11.83 0.06 101 CASCADE 20 SSE 0.27 0.71 -0.44 38 12.12 10.60 1.52 114 CHESTER 0.00 0.66 -0.66 0 7.04 7.74 -0.70 91 CHOUTEAU 0.00 0.55 -0.55 0 8.46 7.48 0.98 113 CONRAD 0.00 0.54 -0.54 0 5.40 8.92 -3.52 61 CUT BANK 0.03 0.66 -0.63 5 10.13 8.70 1.43 116 FORT ASSINNIBOINE 0.00 0.76 -0.76 0 8.74 9.45 -0.71 92 FORT BENTON 0.16 0.58 -0.42 28 10.05 10.19 -0.14 99 GOLD BUTTE 7 N 0.00 0.67 -0.67 0 10.17 9.69 0.48 105 GRASS RANGE 0.05 0.88 -0.83 6 10.57 12.47 -1.90 85 GREAT FALLS 0.07 0.63 -0.56 11 11.96 11.24 0.72 106 HAVRE 0.11 0.63 -0.52 17 8.15 8.35 -0.20 98 LIVINGSTON 0.69 0.68 0.01 101 11.93 12.02 -0.09 99 LEWISTOWN 0.49 0.90 -0.41 54 12.73 13.38 -0.65 95 MARTINSDALE 3 NNW 0.15 0.77 -0.62 19 10.33 9.73 0.60 106 NEIHART 8 NNW 0.45 0.97 -0.52 46 13.16 15.99 -2.83 82 STANFORD 0.82 0.91 -0.09 90 10.08 12.59 -2.51 80 VALIER 0.00 0.59 -0.59 0 8.83 8.77 0.06 101 WHITE SULPHUR SPRGS 0.18 0.67 -0.49 27 8.39 9.94 -1.55 84 EASTERN MONTANA GLASGOW 0.23 0.77 -0.54 30 8.44 8.01 0.43 105 MILES CITY 0.05 0.74 -0.69 7 12.80 10.24 2.56 125 NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO

Great Falls WFO Soil MoistureDrying with warm temperatures and decreased precipitation: 

Great Falls WFO Soil Moisture Drying with warm temperatures and decreased precipitation NOAA National Weather Service – Great Falls WFO 6 inch – 43 cb 12 inch – 32 cb 18 inch – 24 cb 30 inch – 18 cb

Statewide Average PrecipitationJuly precipitation is about 2/3 June precipitation: 

Statewide Average Precipitation July precipitation is about 2/3 June precipitation Western Region Climate Center

Average Precipitation June – AugustComparison to June 2005: 

Average Precipitation June – August Comparison to June 2005

Number of days 90 degrees or warmerJune... July... AugustNearly all sites below average: 

Number of days 90 degrees or warmer June... July... August Nearly all sites below average

Number of days 90 degrees or warmerJune – AugustAll sites below average: 

Number of days 90 degrees or warmer June – August All sites below average

Palmer Hydrological Drought IndexExtensiveness of long term deficits decreasing: 

Palmer Hydrological Drought Index Extensiveness of long term deficits decreasing 1 division Extreme Drought Southwest ±0 2 divisions Severe Drought Central +1 South central ±0 3 divisions Mid-Range West +2 North Central +1 Northeast ±0 1 division Moderately Moist Southeast +1 NOAA National Climatic Data Center June 2005 May 2005

Drought Monitor – July 12, 2005 Continued widespread improvement over state: 

Drought Monitor – July 12, 2005 Continued widespread improvement over state Elimination of D3 – Extreme Drought West Southwest Reduction of D2 – Severe Drought Northwest Improvement to D0 – Abnormally Dry Central - north central – east Areas with no drought Northeast East National Drought Mitigation Center June 14, 2005 July 12 2005

El Niño UpdateNear neutral conditions remainder of summer through fall: 

El Niño Update Near neutral conditions remainder of summer through fall Near normal pattern Near to slightly warmer than average sea surface temperatures over central equatorial Pacific Near to slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures over eastern Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies will likely remain positive during next 3-6 months Expected to stay within the El Nino-neutral range July 2005 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Days 6-10 500mb Heights & AnomaliesWarm...dry weather expected over Montana: 

Days 6-10 500mb Heights & Anomalies Warm...dry weather expected over Montana July 19-23 Montana under high pressure ridge Low pressure trough to the west and to the east Warm... dry air pushing up from south Weak southwest flow over west NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Days 8-14 Temperature OutlookBetter chances for above normal temperatures: 

Days 8-14 Temperature Outlook Better chances for above normal temperatures July 21-27 Normal temperature ranges for mid-June through mid-July... Highs in the upper 70s and 80s Lows in the upper 40s and 50s NOAA Climate Prediction Center Zoomed to Montana

Days 8-14 Precipitation OutlookBetter chances for below normal precip west...central and south: 

Days 8-14 Precipitation Outlook Better chances for below normal precip west...central and south July 21-27 Normal precipitation for mid-July to mid-August ~1.25 – 1.75 inches NOAA Climate Prediction Center Zoomed to Montana

July Outlook: 

July Outlook Temperature Precipitation Better chances for below normal temperatures east of the divide Equal chances temperatures will be above... below or near normal west of the divide NOAA Climate Prediction Center Better chances precipitation will be above normal across all of Montana

August-October Outlook: 

August-October Outlook Temperature Precipitation Equal chances precipitation will be above... below or near normal across all of Montana Equal chances temperatures will be above... below or near normal across all of Montana NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Drought Outlook through SeptemberSlowed improvement across Montana: 

Drought Outlook through September Slowed improvement across Montana Persistence west and southwest Limited improvement central... south and Missouri basin below Fort Peck Warmer... drier summer weather May 19, 2005 June16, 2005 Limited Improvement Improvement Some Improvement Persist July 8, 2005 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

weather.gov: 

weather.gov weather.gov/billings weather.gov/glasgow weather.gov/missoula weather.gov/greatfalls