Presentation Transcript
GLOBAL FLAT GLASS MARKET OVERVIEW A PRESENTATION FOR THE ANSAC GLOBAL DISTRIBUTOR MEETING SEPTEMBER 19, 2006: GLOBAL FLAT GLASS MARKET OVERVIEW A PRESENTATION FOR THE ANSAC GLOBAL DISTRIBUTOR MEETING SEPTEMBER 19, 2006 FRY CONSULTANTS INCORPORATED
ATLANTA, GEORGIA
COPYRIGHT: Fry Consultants Incorporated 2006
FRY CONSULTANTS INCORPORATED: PAST AND PRESENT: FRY CONSULTANTS INCORPORATED: PAST AND PRESENT Founded in 1942 in Chicago by George Fry.
Exclusive focus on business-to-business/industrial products.
Majority of revenue derived from building and construction products.
Services include:
Benchmark surveys;
Competitive intelligence;
Customer satisfaction/loyalty;
Market opportunity studies;
Multi-client industry studies.
Global capabilities through a worldwide network of affiliates.
We help clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage through market intelligence and strategic decision-making.
REPORT INFORMATION SOURCES: REPORT INFORMATION SOURCES Information Sources:
Pilkington and the Flat Glass Industry Report
Freedonia World Flat Glass multi-client study
National Glass Association
Flat Glass manufacturer interviews
FLAT GLASS MARKET: SITUATION ANALYSIS: FLAT GLASS MARKET: SITUATION ANALYSIS Global plant capacity utilization is estimated at 93%.
Current world flat glass market is estimated at 42 million metric tons.
Of the 42 million tons, approximately 2 million tons is rolled glass and 3 million is sheet glass. As much as an additional 10 million tons is lower quality glass.
Annual global flat glass demand is estimated to grow at 4%.
To satisfy 4% annual growth the industry will need to add more than 100 new float lines between 2000 and 2010.
FLAT GLASS MARKET: SITUATION ANALYSIS (CONT’D): FLAT GLASS MARKET: SITUATION ANALYSIS (CONT’D) Growth is driven by building and automotive glass primarily. However, glass products are driven by economic conditions.
With more than one-third (34% est.) of the global market, China is the largest and fastest growing market.
Big challenge (biggest in US/Europe) is ever-increasing energy cost for:
Melting raw materials.
Logistics (i.e., moving products).
Bottom Line: Higher energy costs are hurting profits.
FLAT GLASS MARKET: TRENDS: FLAT GLASS MARKET: TRENDS Definite trend toward more value-added products. Examples:
Increased low-E glass usage for residential windows – code driven/energy conservation (US and Europe) – varies greatly by state.
Increased impact resistant glass usage. Residential windows along coastal areas – code driven/hurricane protection.
More glass/reflective glass usage for commercial buildings – energy conservation.
More laminated side glazing for automotive applications – safety enhancement (Europe/US).
Increased China exports – typically low end (e.g., mirrored glass, glass furniture.
FLAT GLASS MARKET: MAJOR MANUFACTURERS: FLAT GLASS MARKET: MAJOR MANUFACTURERS Four companies account for more than half (61%) of the world float capacity:
Company Country World Capacity (est.) Asahi
Pilkington
Saint-Gobain
Guardian
All Others Japan
United Kingdom
France
United States
Others 20
15
13
13
39
100 % %
FLAT GLASS MARKET: JOINT VENTURES: FLAT GLASS MARKET: JOINT VENTURES Joint Venture Partners
Asahi/Vitro
Pilkington/Saint-Gobain
Hanglas/Saint-Gobain
Pilkington / EMP
Pilkington / SYP Target Country
Mexico
Brazil
China
Russia
China Year Commissioned
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
FLAT GLASS MARKET: THREE MAJOR CATEGORIES OF FABRICATED PRODUCTS: FLAT GLASS MARKET: THREE MAJOR CATEGORIES OF FABRICATED PRODUCTS Products Global Market
Share (est. %)
Construction* 65%
Automotive 25
Specialty (e.g., furniture, mirror) 10
100%
*Architectural glass is experiencing about 8% annual growth.
FLAT GLASS MARKET: GLOBAL DEMAND: FLAT GLASS MARKET: GLOBAL DEMAND China, Europe and North America account for an estimated 73% of global demand:
China
Europe*
North America**
Southeast Asia
West Asia
Fmr Soviet Union
South America
Japan
Others 34
24
15
8
5
5
3
3
3
100 14.2
10.0
6.3
3.4
2.1
2.1
1.3
1.3
1.3
42.0 Country Market Share Tonnage (est.)
(in millions) % % *Europe includes Eastern Europe and Turkey.
**North America includes the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
FLAT GLASS MARKET: GLOBAL DEMAND: FLAT GLASS MARKET: GLOBAL DEMAND
FLAT GLASS MARKET: CHINA PROFILE: FLAT GLASS MARKET: CHINA PROFILE At least 120 float lines currently in operation.
Majority are less efficient than “western” style lines. Produce more sheet and other lower quality glass. However, quality/efficiency improving.
Market growing at an estimated 8% to 10% annually.
Construction products represent 70% to 75% of total fabricated flat glass.
Growth should encourage Chinese to develop joint venture/other partnership arrangements with western flat glass manufacturers.
FLAT GLASS MARKET: EUROPE PROFILE: FLAT GLASS MARKET: EUROPE PROFILE Overall a mature market with annual flat glass growth forecast at 2.5% for the next three years.
However, the implementation of stricter energy regulations, particularly in Germany, will benefit the flat glass construction (e.g., architectural glass) market. Annual construction growth estimated at 4% to 5% for the next three years.
With an estimated combined 75% market share, Saint-Gobain, Pilkington and Glaverbel dominate the market.
Increased usage of such value added products as:
Insulated glass (mandatory in Germany).
Low-E glass.
Solar control glass.
Laminated glass in automotive (sidelites).
FLAT GLASS MARKET: NORTH AMERICA PROFILE: FLAT GLASS MARKET: NORTH AMERICA PROFILE North America, dominated by the US, is also a mature market with annual flat glass growth estimated at 4% during the next three years.
Construction accounts for between 55% and 60% of total demand, but will almost certainly decline with the slowdown in US residential construction activity.
Four manufacturers represent nearly three-quarters of capacity:
Asahi (AFG): 20% market share (est.).
PPG: 20% market share (est.).
Guardian: 19% market share (est.).
Pilkington: 14% market share (est.).
Value added products are increasingly important and include previously mentioned:
Low-E glass (energy conservation).
Solar control glass (energy conservation).
Impact resistant glass (hurricane/wind debris products).
FLAT GLASS MARKET: SOUTH AMERICA: FLAT GLASS MARKET: SOUTH AMERICA Latin America represents growth potential for flat glass. Flat glass demand increasing at an estimated 5% annually.
Pilkington and Saint-Gobain are the dominant vendors.
With roughly two-thirds of the flat glass capacity, Brazil is by far the largest flat glass market.
Brazil’s flat glass market is also experiencing annual growth of about 5%.
However, construction products such as architectural glass are growing at approximately 6% annually.
Motor vehicle glass demand is increasing at an estimated 5% annually, with increased vehicle usage creating a larger and larger replacement market.
FUTURE DISCUSSION OPPORTUNITIES: FUTURE DISCUSSION OPPORTUNITIES Unified marketing to increase demand for newer applications, such as low- E, insulation, sun ray control, privacy, etc.
Unified marketing approach to automotive manufacturers, especially global, with respect to safety, privacy, passenger compartment heat reduction, etc.
Unified research approach to foregoing applications.
ANSAC led investigation of potential for flat glass in developing areas, such as Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
And so on…
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