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GM crops: the global economic & environmental impact 1996-2004: 

GM crops: the global economic & environmental impact 1996-2004 Graham Brookes & Peter Barfoot PG Economics UK www.pgeconomics.co.uk

Coverage: 

Coverage Presenting findings of full report available on www.pgeconomics.co.uk Version in peer reviewed journal: AgbioForum Cumulative impact: 1996-2004 Farm income impact: focuses on farm income New environmental impact analysis covering pesticide spray changes & associated environmental impact New environmental impact analysis: greenhouse gas emissions

Methodology: 

Methodology Literature review of economic impact in each country – collates & extrapolates existing work Uses current prices, exch rates and yields (for each year): gives dynamic element to analysis Review of pesticide usage (volumes used) or typical GM versus conventional treatments Use of Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) indicator Review of literature on carbon impacts – fuel changes and soil carbon

Methodology: EIQs: 

Methodology: EIQs From Kovach et al (1992) Integrates various env impacts of indiv pesticides into a single field value/ha – allows for comparisons between products Is consistent and fairly comprehensive Compares level of use on GM with conventional crop usage to deliver equal level of efficacy Is an indicator only (does not take into account all env impacts)

Key Findings: 

Key Findings After 10 years of commercialization, biotech crops have yielded a net increase in farm income while significantly reducing environmental impact.

Farm level economic impact: 

Farm level economic impact 2004: farm income benefit $4.8 billion – $6.5 inc of Argentine 2nd crop soy benefits 2004: equiv to adding value to global production of these crops of 3.1% to 4.2% Since 1996, farm income gain = $19 billion ($27 billion inc of Arg 2nd crop soy)

Farm income effect: million $: 

Farm income effect: million $ Notes: Bracketed figures include second crop benefits in Argentina

Farm income gains: by country: 1996-2004 million $: 

Farm income gains: by country: 1996-2004 million $

Other farm level benefits: 

Other farm level benefits

Impact on pesticide use: 

Impact on pesticide use Significant reduction in global environmental impact of production agriculture Since 1996 use of pesticides down by 172 m kg (-6%) & associated environmental footprint -14% In 2004, reduction in volume of use (-42 million kg) is equivalent to 32% of total ai use in EU arable crop production

Impact on pesticide use: 

Impact on pesticide use Largest gains in soy sector: -41 m kg (-4%) since 1996 & 19% decrease in environmental footprint Major gains with GM IR cotton: - 77 m kg insecticide (-15%) & 17% reduction in env footprint Important gains in maize & canola sectors: 8% & 21% respective reduction in env footprint Greatest gains in US, Canada, Argentina & China

Changes in the use of herbicides & insecticides from growing GM crops globally 1996-2004 : 

Changes in the use of herbicides & insecticides from growing GM crops globally 1996-2004

Impact on greenhouse gas emissions: 

Impact on greenhouse gas emissions Lower GHG emissions: 2 main sources: Reduced fuel use (less spraying & soil cultivation) GM HT crops facilitate no till systems = less soil preparation = additional soil carbon sequestration

Reduced GHG emissions: 2004: 

Reduced GHG emissions: 2004 Reduced fuel use (less spraying & tillage) = 400 million litres fuel saving & 1,082 million kg less carbon dioxide Facilitation of no/low till systems = 9,423 m tonnes of carbon dioxide not released into atmosphere = Equivalent to removing 4.7 million cars — one-fifth of cars registered in the United Kingdom — from the road for one year

Reduced GHG emissions: 1996-2004: 

Reduced GHG emissions: 1996-2004 less fuel use = 2.19 m cars off the road (9% UK cars) additional soil carbon sequestration – not possible to estimate (depends on % of crops kept in continuous no till)

Concluding comments: 

Concluding comments Technology used by 8.25 m farmers on 78 m ha (2004) Delivered important economic & environmental benefits + $27 billion to farm income since 1996 -172 m kg pesticides & 14% reduction in env footprint associated with pesticide use since 1996 Carbon dioxide emissions down by nearly 10 billion kg in 2004: equal to 4.7 m cars off the road for a year

Concluding comments: 

Concluding comments GM IR technology: improved profits & env gains from less insecticide use GM HT technology: combination of direct benefits (mostly cost reductions) & facilitation of changes in farming systems (no till & use of broad spectrum products) plus major GHG emission gains