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Slide1: 

FINDING A REASONABLE PATH THROUGH CHAOS

The Challenge: 

The Challenge To create a politically and technically valid policy, land-use, and capital investment strategy to shape future development of the City of Seattle

Characteristics Of Success: 

Characteristics Of Success Political Success Mayor and City Council to survive their decision People of Seattle to believe in the plan Technical Success Satisfy State law Markets are successful Capacity to adapt to a random, chaotic future

Underpinnings Of Success: 

Underpinnings Of Success Understand the nature of human emotions: Nostalgia Fear Aspiration Avarice Customary Belief Decision-making models and tools

Nostalgia: 

Nostalgia Desire for things to be as they were in a past that may or may not have existed.

Fear: 

Fear Psychologists explain the increased burden borne by women living in urban societies

Aspiration: 

Aspiration Behavioral change that lasts is built on emotion and aspiration. Government’s primary tools for encouraging behavioral change are facts and guilt.

Avarice / Self-Interest: 

External: Create private benefit in ways that add to public benefits Internal: Motivating staff Avarice / Self-Interest

Customary Belief: 

Customary Belief Customary belief is the enemy of honesty. In a world governed by randomness and chaos, the only rational response to most queries about the future is, “I don’t know.” “To A Hammer, Everything Looks Like A Nail.”

Non-Traditional Approach To Planning: 

Non-Traditional Approach To Planning Social science research Communication strategies Message proxies Informed consent rather than consensus

Role of Nostalgia in Planning: 

Role of Nostalgia in Planning Restorative nostalgia – changing backwards Destructive power of hope Reflective nostalgia – changing forwards

Did It Work?: 

Did It Work? Politically Every pro-plan council member increased plurality Every anti-plan council member was defeated Technically The market accepted the plan City’s population growth = suburban population growth

For Additional Information: 

For Additional Information Gary Lawrence, Global Urban Strategy Leader Arup 1 (206) 493-2228 gary.lawrence@arup.com