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Jefferson Burnett and Amada Torres (email@example.com) (firstname.lastname@example.org) NAIS C/N January 27, 2008Overview: Overview Our World (Trends) Economy Competition Demographics Public Perceptions of Independent Schools (Mirror Test) Your School’s Value-added Relevancy to You What This Tells Us and What To Do Pop Quiz: Pop Quiz Pop Quiz Question #1 A parent is shopping for schools, stops by to see you, and asks you this question: What is your school’s value-added? Pop Quiz Question #2 A parent is shopping for schools and stops by a public magnet /charter/virtual school and asks this question: What is your school’s value-added? Pop Quiz Question #3 How do the response differ? Pop Quiz Question #4 Is your school’s value-added proposition good enough in today’s climate?Slide4: Our World: Trends Our World: Trends The EconomyThe Economy: “The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.” (1/13/08 NYT) WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumers cut back on their spending at the nation’s retailers in December, wrapping up the weakest sales year since 2002, according to a gloomy report that fanned fears of a recession. (1/16/08 NYT) Citigroup, the nation’s largest bank, reported a staggering fourth-quarter loss of $9.83 billion on Tuesday and issued a sobering forecast that the housing market and the broader economy still had not bottomed out. (1/16/08 NYT) Strong evidence is emerging that consumer spending, a bulwark against recession over the last year even as energy prices surged and the housing market sputtered, has begun to slow sharply at every level of the American economy, from the working class to the wealthy. (1/14/08 NYT) The EconomyEconomic TrendsIncome stagnation, large tuition increases, income divide: Economic Trends Income stagnation, large tuition increases, income divide “Although the economy is growing at a solid rate, workers' wages have stagnated… Consumer spending is up, despite scant disposable incomes, pushing the savings rate to the lowest level since the Depression.” ~ The Urban Institute Nationally, median tuition for 1st grade increased 31.3% in inflation-adjusted dollars between 1995-96 and 2005-06, which includes a 16.5% increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics For 12th grade, median tuition increased 27.6% in the decade between 1995-96 and 2005-06, including a 14.5% increase between 2000-01 and 2005-06. ~ NAIS Statistics Rich are getting richer…middle class squeezed…what is the middle class? Demo-EcoTrendsDisappearing Middle Class: Demo-EcoTrends Disappearing Middle Class The Middle Class: Dual Income Family $75,000 ~ “The Middle Class on the Precipice,” Harvard Magazine, February, 2006 Disposable income Dual vs. single earnersNAIS SSS Five Year TrendParent’s Financial Statement Filers: NAIS SSS Five Year Trend Parent’s Financial Statement FilersSlide9: Our World: Trends The CompetitionThe Competition: Ok…now be HONEST…what’s your COMPETITION? Urban Schools Aiming Higher Than Diploma BOSTON — At Excel High School, in South Boston, teachers do not just prepare students academically for the SAT; they take them on practice walks to the building where the SAT will be given so they won’t get lost on the day of the test. (1/18/08 NYT) The Competition The Competition: The Competition Is your COMPETITION… Days of Our Lives OR Second Life?Slide12: Not What Parents Were Expecting Source: 2006 Your First College Year (YFCY) Survey , The Higher Education Research Institute (HERI) -UCLA Hey, this is us! Who are these folk? Slide13: Our World: Trends DemographicsChanging School-age Population: Changing School-age Population Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.Forecasted Growth in Population Age 0-17 Years: Forecasted Growth in Population Age 0-17 YearsAging of AmericaShift in age distribution : Aging of America Shift in age distribution Family Structure: Family Structure In 2003: 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980) 23 percent lived only with a mother 5 percent lived only with a father 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”) The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce, “Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to 2010”)Race and Ethnicity: Race and Ethnicity Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”) Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to 21% in 2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”) Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”) The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only 230 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths. (Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know”) Gen Xers Parents: Gen Xers Parents Some characteristics of Gen Xers: Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial success is important, personal lives take precedence. Have spent more time watching television than going to school. Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about leading edge technology. Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to continue to evaluate options. Are a racially diverse group. Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them. Observations: Observations K-12 cohort: slower growth nationally, more certain parts of the country Older citizenry: more grand parents paying tuition, families chipping-in, less inclined to pay more in taxes for public schools? Demographic look: more Hispanic families, higher educational attainment means more and different expectations of schools? Financial picture: larger gap rich and poor, hurting emotional middle class, affordability and value of a private school education?Slide21: Public Perceptions of Independent SchoolsWhat are the elements of a quality school?(general public & high income): What are the elements of a quality school? (general public & high income) Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006 NAIS Public Opinion Poll 3/November 2006 Washington, Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco Samplings: Parents with school age children/High income (150k or more) parents with school age children Providing a safe environment Employing high quality teachers Maintaining discipline Keeping students motivated/enthusiastic about learning Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel Preparing students academically for college Encouraging parents’ participation What do you think are some of the key elements of a quality school?Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - General Public Opinion: Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - General Public Opinion Providing a safe environment Maintaining discipline Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning Preparing students academically for college Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel Employing high-quality teachers Encouraging parents to participate in their child's education Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities Preparing students for life and career in a global economy Preventing drug and alcohol use Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - High Income Families Opinions: Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - High Income Families Opinions Providing a safe environment Maintaining discipline #3 Gen Pub Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning #4 Gen Pub Preparing students academically for college #6 Gen Pub Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel #5 Gen Pub Employing high-quality teachers Encouraging parents to participate in their child's education Using computers and other technology to enhance learning Preparing students for life and career in a global economy Preventing drug and alcohol use #8 Gen Pub Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006 Gap Analysis Among Targeted Sample: Gap Analysis Among Targeted Sample Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is Extremely Important. Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent. *Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence level Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006 Ouch!Ind Schools vs. Public Schools: Ind Schools vs. Public Schools Look at those numbers: Is this why our new competitors are so attractive?Observations: Observations Public thinking: are we offering a product they value; why doesn’t the public know more about us?Slide28: What This Tells Us and What To DoKey Questions/Issues…How Do You…: Key Questions/Issues…How Do You… Assure Product Quality (i.e., are schools doing what they say they do)? [POP3 results] Accreditation. Is your accreditation process designed to help your school confirm/improve quality? What areas do parents (POP3) and your school think are important markers of a quality education? If aligned with your mission, are you doing them? How? Can you get better? Distinguish from the Competition (i.e., what makes us different from virtual, magnet, charters, etc.)? Program/Mission/Faculty. What actually does distinguish your school from the high-end magnet, virtual, charter down the road or in the ethers? Can you identify what those characteristics are? Data to back it up? Have you done a comparison? Can you demonstrate whether you are a 21st Century School? The Wisdom of the Crowd: The Wisdom of the Crowd The skills of … The values of… What’s on your list of skills and values that we should teach for the 21st C.? Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum: Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will be required? creativity and innovation facility with the use of ideas and abstractions self-discipline and organization to manage one’s own work and drive it through to successful conclusion leadership ability to function well as a member of a team Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum: Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will be required? cross-disciplinary knowledge communication skills teamwork analytical reasoning real world problem-solving skills Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum: Creating the 21st. C. Curriculum The Generative Question: What curriculum will prepare students for the 21st Century? What skills & values will be required? disciplined mind (expertise in a field) synthesizing mind (scanning and weaving into coherence) creating mind (discovery and innovation) respectful mind (open mindedness and inclusiveness) ethical mind (moral courage) Multiple Intelligences Who’s Who of Key PlayersKey Issues: Key Issues Articulate your VAP (i.e., how do we demonstrate that we’re worth it?) Accountability. How is your school accountable to its students and parents? What is your value-added? How can you prove it? (Show me the money!) [NAIS Accountability Initiative/NAIS Survey Builder] Enhance School Marketing (i.e., who we are and what we do) Marketing. What do you know about trends nationally, regionally, locally? Are you tracking the demographics? [NAIS Demographic Center] What are your messages? How are you getting them out there? [NAIS Advocacy Resources]Messaging: Messaging Communicate what the school does well so it will resonate with the audience—for NAIS schools, that would be primarily affluent families. For example: Children taught by high quality teachers Curriculum includes strong arts/music School provides a safe environment Curriculum/programs prepare students for life and career Add your value-added piece (measurement) Why is this Relevant to You?: Why is this Relevant to You? Because you are responsible for marketing your school to prospective families and students. Because you are responsible for increasing alumni and parental support of, and involvement in, the institution. Because you are responsible for enhancing the visibility and public perception of the school. Because each of you need to work as a team with faculty, parents, and students; and have a consistent approach when showing the value-added of your school. Because you need hard data to prove that you ‘walk the talk.’ You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.