Seasonal and Economic Impact on Sales 20...

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Seasonal and Economic Impact on Sales 2009 : 

Seasonal and Economic Impact on Sales 2009 Based on National Weather Bureau Forecasts as of December 2008

Revised Forecast – With Seasonal and Economic Impact : 

Revised Forecast – With Seasonal and Economic Impact The curve of sales for 2008 showed two predominant decline periods. Spring drop due to price increases at 2008 start, late spring drop seasonally and negative media attention due to lawsuit. Late year drop due to recession and economic factors. For 2009, we see two possible opportunities. Recession/depression adjustment predicted for early summer. Warm and dry year throughout central states and east coast states will allow for a longer/later building season, thus allowing for late year growth after economic upturn. Other non-quantified factors: Increased Marketing Pushes/Programs and Advertising. New product enhancements (including California code requirements). Re-vamped S.O.S. process. Working with Jason on this now.

Economist blog from SeekingAlpha.com : 

Economist blog from SeekingAlpha.com This Recession Should End in June by: Vahan Janjigian November 19, 2008 | about stocks: DIA / QQQQ / SPY Most sensible economists agree the U.S. economy is in recession. Yet the fact remains that no recession has been officially declared. The textbook definition of recession is two successive quarters of contraction. After posting very strong growth during the second and third quarters of 2007, GDP fell 0.2% during the fourth quarter of that year. However, it rebounded to 0.9% growth in the first quarter of 2008. The tax rebate checks, billed as an economic stimulus plan, boosted second quarter 2008 GDP to 2.8%. GDP fell 0.3% in the third quarter. So if the economy contracts during the fourth quarter, which it certainly will, we will have satisfied the textbook definition of recession. The more relevant definition, however, is the one stated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. This is the entity that has the authority to declare official recessions in the U.S. According to the NBER, "a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." By this definition, it appears that a case could be made that we have been in recession for almost a year. The NBER takes its time in declaring recessions. According to the NBER, the last recession began in March 2001 and ended in November of that year. But the NBER did not declare the start of the recession until November, when the recession was already over. Furthermore, it did not declare the end of the recession until July 2003. That's almost two years after the recession had already ended. Employment is one of the many factors the NBER studies when trying to determine if the economy is in recession. In December 2006, the unemployment rate stood at 4.6%. One year later, it had climbed to 5.0%. After dipping a bit in January and February of 2008, it resumed its upward drift. The unemployment rate for October hit 6.5%, 150 basis points higher than it was just 10 months earlier. The last time the unemployment rate visited this level was in April 1994. Given layoffs like the one announced Monday by Citigroup, there is no doubt unemployment will jump to much higher levels. Some economists hope the unemployment rate will peak around 7%. I think this forecast is much too optimistic. In June 1992, the unemployment rate hit 7.8%. In November and December of 1982 it peaked at 10.8%. Furthermore, it is not unusual for the unemployment rate to continue rising for some time even after a recession has ended. This is because employers are wary about hiring until they are convinced that better times lie ahead. At this time, I am expecting the unemployment rate to rise to somewhere between 8-9% by June 2009. I believe the current (undeclared) recession began in January 2008. I am optimistic that it will end around June 2009. If I have the starting and ending points right, this recession will have lasted 18 months in duration. That is about the average length of all recessions recorded in the U.S. since 1854, but it is 10 months longer than the average since 1945. In fact, 18 months would set a post-WWII recession record. Of course, if businesses become more aggressive with layoffs, retail sales continue to fall, and housing prices fail to stabilize by next spring, this recession could last considerably longer than 18 months. That would be a dire outcome indeed.

S&P suggestions on Economic Trends : 

S&P suggestions on Economic Trends Wednesday, October 22, 2008 S&P's recession forecast In the current edition of The Outlook, Standard and Poors presents its forecast for the recession (source offline; no link available): The economy will likely suffer a moderate, but long recession, and a sluggish recovery, according to S&P Economics. From the December 2007 peak to a trough in May 2009, this expected 17-month recession would be longer than the 50-year average of 10.7 months, and near the longest recessions of 1975 and 1982. ...We’re forecasting negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first half of 2009 for a total decline of 0.9%. While business tax credits should likely provide some boost to the fourth quarter, borrowing restrictions will mean that boost will be smaller than we originally thought.Still, this should be a moderate recession. Unemployment will likely climb to 7.5% by summer 2009 from its March 2007 low of 4.4%. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 40% through October 10, near the historical average decline of 36% during a recession. As stock prices normally lead the economy by three to six months, they should bottom in the fourth quarter.The Fed chopped the Fed Funds rate to 1.5% from 5.25% last September. We expect the central bank to remain on hold until the recession is over before raising rates in the fall of 2009. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.8% from a peak of 4.5% last summer. However, the cost of funds for businesses and individuals has risen due to the credit crunch.The fiscal stimulus package will likely bring the fiscal 2008 federal deficit slightly above the 2004 record of $413 billion. We expect the record to easily be broken next year, with a deficit exceeding $700 billion, depending on how the Troubled Asset Relief Plan is treated.

Slide 6: 

Dec-Feb Warm middle states, but middle to southern states also seeing rainfall. Rainfall will affect Ennis-1425, B’ville 1426, Purvis 1447 Warm winter will affect these plus St. Joe 1437, Vonore - 970

Slide 7: 

Jan to March Warm winter/spring will affect all FDC’s except west coast and colorado. Rainfall should not affect areas significantly

Slide 8: 

FDC Locations

Slide 9: 

Precipitation for the year. A (green) means above average B (orange) means below average

Slide 10: 

Feb to April Warm Southern weather only going to affect purvis, Ennis B’ville.

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Mar to May

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April to June

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May to July

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June to Aug

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July to Sept

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Aug to Oct

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Sept to Nov

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Oct to Dec

Slide 19: 

Nov to Jan Warm Winter in Southern and Central states may extend building season

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