22Lamb

Cars, Trucks, Planes:What will drive them in the future?: 

Cars, Trucks, Planes: What will drive them in the future? David Lamb BTRE Transport Colloquium Canberra 13-14 June 2007

Slide2: 

Biggest increase in Australia’s emissions since 1990 is private transport Increased 29% since 1990 Headlines: (1)

Slide3: 

Public transport in crisis “Transport congestion choking Melbourne” -- The Age “Fuel price drives commuters onto buses and trains” -- SMH What do these problems have in common? Headlines: (2)

Government Report :Is the World Running Out of Oil (2005): 

Government Report : Is the World Running Out of Oil (2005)

Slide7: 

Source: Abare: Australian energy: national & state projections to 2029-30 ABARE Projection to 2030 – (2005) 45% Energy Trade Deficit >$5 Bn last year

Slide8: 

Katrina: 1836 deaths $100 billion damage 30 oil platforms 9 oil refineries

Oil consumption: 

Oil consumption

Sources of emissions - Australia: 

Sources of emissions - Australia Note: USA transport emissions are 28% of total USA emissions. California 58% 14.5%

Greenhouse gas emissions Australian transport: 

Greenhouse gas emissions Australian transport

Slide12: 

Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) also need to be considered. GHG must not be confused with Air Quality! Air quality is an issue in urban areas (particulate carbon, mostly from diesel) GHG emissions are a national/global issue

Why the increase in GHG for cars?: 

Why the increase in GHG for cars? 2NO 2NO2 N2 + O2 N2 + 2O2 And there’s a second reason! Engines have improved in fuel efficiency 20% over the past 20years, However this has been offset by growth in vehicle size

Slide16: 

Road Vehicles Australia 2002

The Technology Progression for Australia?: 

The Technology Progression for Australia? 30 years or even more! Oil based transport system Alternative Fuels Hydrogen Electricity Methanol ? Oil from coal ? Oil from gas ? Biofuels – ethanol, biodiesel Natural gas LPG But must be ‘clean’ }

Biofuels from current agriculture: 

Biofuels from current agriculture Ethanol If we used all the crops (sugar, molasses, wheat, coarse grain) suitable for making ethanol and converted them to fuel it would only replace 75% of our petrol. (If we stopped exporting grain we could replace 25% of our petrol) Biodiesel If we used all the crops (canola, cottonseed and others) suitable for making diesel and converted them to fuel we could replace only 10% of our diesel usage. Conclusions: Ethanol could support E10 for most of Australia Urgent research is needed into next-generation biofuel technologies.

Side effects of biofuels: 

Side effects of biofuels The Tortilla Protest – Mexico City, February 21 2007

Slide20: 

comparison of ethanol vs ULP -

Sustainability - GHG emissions across fuel typesin a typical ‘family sedan’: 

Sustainability - GHG emissions across fuel types in a typical ‘family sedan’ Source: Tim Grant

Room for improvement: 

Room for improvement 13% Motion (aero, braking & rolling) Braking 6% Accessory 2% Engine 62% Rolling 4% Aero 3% Idle 17% Drivetrain 6% In suburban cycle 87% energy lost versus 13% converted to motion

Slide24: 

Automobiles are becoming increasingly electrified There is a strong demand for more energy storage on board the vehicle. Much research into high-tech batteries

Slide25: 

In partnership with Holden the ECOmmodore, a parallel hybrid vehicle. With aXcess Australia, a series hybrid vehicle.

Slide26: 

60 volt battery pack 150 volt Supercapacitor CSIRO’s Battery Breakthrough

The UltraBattery: 

The UltraBattery

An All-Electric Vehicle: 

An All-Electric Vehicle Controller Electric Motor 240V AC Charger Storage Device

EV Performance: 

EV Performance 0-30 mph: 1.35s 0-60 mph: 3.07s in 117 ft 0-100 mph: 6.87s 0-100-0 mph 11.2s www.wrightspeed.com

Finally, the Hydrogen Powered Car: 

Finally, the Hydrogen Powered Car Fuel Cell Hydrogen Electric motor

The Future?: 

The Future? Expect more pressure to reduce emissions Simplest ways to reduce emissions: - Reduce travel (particularly in cities) Reduce vehicle size where possible Improve traffic flows improve fuel economy of vehicles

Slide32: 

Expect more pressure to reduce emissions Expect more technological improvements in engines. Hybrids save fuel (and emissions) – but mostly in the city (short journeys and stop-start driving) The easiest ways to reduce emissions are to reduce travel, reduce vehicle size, then reduce congestion.

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?: 

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?: 

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?: 

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

89% reduction in 36 years!: 

89% reduction in 36 years! Public awareness of the problem Government response Determined planning Regulations Driving Road management Vehicle technology Technology And at CSIRO we’re working on it! How did we do it?

Slide37: 

Thank you for your attention