Activity Modeling Initiatives: Activity Modeling Initiatives Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP North Central Texas Council Of Governments For AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting Berkeley, California September 8, 2005


“MPO Coalition”Activity Model Listserv: “MPO Coalition” Activity Model Listserv Mission Statement: “MPO Coalition for the Examination and Advancement of Activity-Based Models for Use in Transportation Planning Applications” 27 MPOs (97 Million People) Are Represented 46% Of All MPO Population 34% Of Total U.S. Population 8 MPOs (34 Million People) With Some Direct Activity Model Involvement


Activity Model ListservAnd Related Web Sites: Activity Model Listserv And Related Web Sites Listserv: Activity_Model@yahoogroups.com MTC’s FTP Site: ftp://198.31.87.7/pub/mtc/planning/activity_model/ NCTCOG’s “Next Generation Modeling” Page http://www.nctcog.org/trans/modeling/Next_Generation.html TMIP’s Clearinghouse Page http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/clearinghouse/browse/


TRB Initial “State Of The Practice” Survey Results: MPOs Considering Activity/Tour Models: TRB Initial “State Of The Practice” Survey Results: MPOs Considering Activity/Tour Models MPOs < 200,000 Population 22% (Of 100 Responses) MPOs From 200,000 To 1,000,000 Population 21% (Of 63 Responses) MPOs Over One Million Population 43% (Of 28 Responses)


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 1): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 1) SACOG (Sacramento Area Council Of Governments) Phase 1 Development Underway Consultant Team = John Bowman and Mark Bradley DRCOG (Denver Regional Council Of Governments) Consultant’s Scope Of Work, Budget, And Schedule Are Being Finalized Prime = Cambridge Systematics


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 2): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 2) NYMTC (New York Metropolitan Transportation Council) Recently Used For AQ Conformity Analysis Work Performing Sensitivity Tests On Value Of Time At Contractual Stage For Sensitivity Tests By Local University


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 3): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 3) MORPC (Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission, Columbus) Used For AQ Conformity And All Roadway/Transit Studies Some Refinements By Original Developer (PB Consult) Underway AECOM Hired To Review Readiness For New Starts DEIS Ohio DOT Staff (Rebekah Anderson) Is (Temporarily) Helping The MPO Out, As They Look For A New Modeler


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 4): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 4) Ohio DOT Developing Statewide Tour-Based Model Prime Consultant = Parsons Brinckerhoff 8-Year Development Program $6 Million For Data Collection And $2.5 Million For The Consultant’s Model Development Interim Model Completed Two Years Ago Final Model Scheduled For 2006/2007 Completion


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 5): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 5) Other Statewide Models With Some Tour-Based Elements New Hampshire Michigan Oregon (Calibration Under Way)


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 6): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 6) San Francisco County Model Actively Used Since 2002 Billy Charlton, Principal Transportation Planner MTC (Metropolitan Transportation Commission) $250,000 Consultant Contract For Phase 1 Travel Model Specifications Trip Chaining Procedures Model Estimation Training On-Call Model Estimation Oversight Model Implementation Support


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 7): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 7) Portland Metro (Oregon), In-House Development Used For Pricing Scenarios in 1998/1999 Full Calibration/Validation Was Not Completed TRANSIMS-Portland U.S. DOT-Sponsored Development/Testing Major Consultant Involvement Expected Completion In 2006


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 8): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 8) ARC (Atlanta Regional Commission) $500,000 Spent Annually For Modeling Services Contract, With $100,000 Dedicated To Activity-Based Development Population Synthesizer Is Up And Running Desired 2007 Activity Model Completion Expectations For Parallel Two-Track Modeling (For Awhile)


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 9): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 9) Calgary, Alberta (Canada) Existing Tour-Based Microsimulation Model For Commercial Vehicles Developing Region-Wide Activity-Based Model For Weekend Travel Longer-Term Plans For Full Weekday Activity-Based Model Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas Area) Household Microsimulation Travel Demand Model (Caliper) STEP2—Builds Upon Greig Harvey’s STEP Policy Analysis Tool For The San Francisco Area


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 10): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 10) VISEM Applications (PTV) Dubai, United Arab Emirates Beijing, China Munich And Cologne, Germany Vienna, Austria Grenoble And Lille, France Luxembourg, Luxembourg


Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 11): Known Activity-Based Modeling Work (Slide 11) EPA Three-Year Project (2004 STAR B-1) Paul Waddell As Principal Investigator Integration Of Land Use And Activity Location Modeling Project Kicks Off This Month (September 2005) CEMDAP (Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator For Generating Daily Activity-Travel Patterns) University Of Texas At Austin (Chandra Bhat) TxDOT State Planning Research Funding ($589,100 Spent Since 2001; $135,000 For One-Year Extension)


CEMDAP Work(Now To August 31, 2006) : CEMDAP Work (Now To August 31, 2006) Implement And Test 4874-Zone Activity-Based Model For The 5,000 Square Mile Dallas-Fort Worth Area Use NCTCOG Model For Truck Trips And All External Trips Prepare 1999 And 2025 CEMDAP Model Runs Year 1999 Validation Checks Compare 1999 And 2025 Against NCTCOG’s Four-Step Model Prepare And Document Model Sensitivity Tests Implement Several Hypothetical Scenarios Both CEMDAP And NCTCOG Model Tests


Existing DFW 4-Step Model: Existing DFW 4-Step Model TRIP GENERATION TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODE CHOICE ROADWAY ASSIGNMENT TRAVEL TIME CONVERGENCE TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT NO YES ZONE LAYER DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ROADWAY NETWORK TRANSIT NETWORK LOOP ROADWAY SKIMS TRANSIT SKIMS INPUT PROCESS DECISION


DFW Model With CEMDAP In Place: DFW Model With CEMDAP In Place CEMDAP CEMDAP CEMDAP ROADWAY ASSIGNMENT TRAVEL TIME CONVERGENCE TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT NO YES ZONE LAYER DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ROADWAY NETWORK TRANSIT NETWORK LOOP ROADWAY SKIMS TRANSIT SKIMS INPUT PROCESS DECISION