Slide1 : Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources, Water Management and related Adaptation Strategies: European Research - Climate Research Challenges Side Event on Climate Change Implications for Water 26th session of the Subsidiary Bodies meeting 17 May 2007 Dr. Elisabeth Lipiatou, Head of Unit
Climate Change and Environmental Risks Unit
Environment Directorate, DG Research
European Commission
Climate Change : Climate Change One of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing the planet
It results from complex interactions between natural and societal processes
Understanding them help to understand the earth system and its relation to societal and economic human system
European Research : European Research Contribution to understand Earth system functionning, the origin and impacts of CC and to predict its future evolution
Quidance and support to EU’s international commitments and EU policies
Basis for effective mitigation and adaptation measures
EU alone cannot solve the climate change problem : EU alone cannot solve the climate change problem ... If Annex I alone reduces emissions to zero ... Global emission path compatible with 2°C
The Global Dimension : The Global Dimension International research efforts
Europe plays a key role
EU funded research projects work on:
Reduce socio-economic impacts from changes in African monsoons
Controlling mechanisms for carbon cycling in African and N. Russian ecosystems
Pollution and GHG in S. Asia
Public attention : Public attention
Now Climate Change is geting large public attention:
Publication of Stern report
IPCC FAR
Stern Report : Stern Report Benefits from strong early action on climate change outweigth the costs
Action is needed urgently
International cooperation essential
Research needs:
Reduce uncertainty related to CC
Study socio-economic impacts
Impacts of 4°, 5°, 6° C T increase
IPCC –main international forum for scientific consensus on climate change : IPCC –main international forum for scientific consensus on climate change European research teams played a major role in providing scientific input to the IPCC process
IPCC process helped to identify major areas of scientific uncertainty and of political sensitivity, and to help direct therefore FP efforts
IPCC FAR (I) : IPCC FAR (I) Substantial step, use of key new research, gaps addressed
Human induced CC is occurring
Future changes inevitable
Vulnerability to CC increase due to other stressors
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to CC
CC could impede nations ability to achieve sustainable development
IPCC FAR (II) : IPCC FAR (II) Integrated treatment of mitigation and adaptation
Influence in many physical and biological systems
Present and future impacts on freshwater resources and their management,
Impact on ecosystems
Water stress: health and humanitarian features
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability
International and European Policy context : International and European Policy context Kyoto an important but only a first step
First commitment period –start negotiations for post 2012
EU target-global T increase will not exceed 2°C over pre-industrial times- Communication
Adaptation to climate change strategies (EU Green Paper)
« Time to Adapt: Climate change and the European water dimension » under the German Presideny and presented to the EU ENV Council in February 2007
7th Framework Programme : 7th Framework Programme 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technology Development (2007 – 2013):
Total FP-7 budget: €32.37 billion
Energy: €2.30 billion
Environment (incl. climate change): €1.90 billion
Transport: €4.18 billion
EU Technology Platforms
European Institute of Technology
Third country participation encouraged
Cooperation – Collaborative Research : Cooperation – Collaborative Research Health
Food, agriculture and biotechnology
Information and communication technologies
Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials and new production technologies
Energy
Environment (including climate change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Socio-economic sciences and the humanities
Space
Security
Euratom: Fusion energy research, nuclear fission and radiation protection Ten+ themes +
Research needs : Research needs Reducing scientific uncertainty – climate sensitivity, role of aerosols
Understanding feedback effects – weakening carbon sinks, natural methane release, changes in ice cover
Understanding rainfall variability and key regional impacts, eg South Asian Monsoon
Carbon fertilisation, ocean acidification
Potential for accelerated sea level rise
Research needs : Research needs Convexity – understanding what happens at temperature increases of 4, 5 and 6 degrees C
Integrated assessment models – more effective representation of recent science, greater use of stochastic techniques
Understanding socio-economic impacts – eg potential for sea level rise or shifts in regional weather patterns to trigger migration and benefits of adaptation
Better understanding of the adaptation process
Some pertinent results of FP5 : DEMETER: Capability demonstrated to predict seasonal/interannual climate variations – implications for energy, agriculture, tourism and health
CARBOEUROPE: Carbon absorption capacity of Europe’s terrestrial biosphere reported to be about 7-12 % of the annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions
PRUDENCE: Forecasting of future precipitation patterns
Some pertinent results of FP5
Europe as a net carbon source in 2003 : Europe as a net carbon source in 2003 Ciais et al. Nature 2005
TJuli-Sep NPPJuli-Sep NPPyear Pyear 30% GPP
TER
→
Net corbon source of
0.5 Gt C yr-1 + 5°C T
- 50% P
Slide19 : PRUDENCE: Signal in Precipitation 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A2
Slide20 :
Running FP6 projects:
Key examples
Slide21 : WATCH Project
The project is bringing together hydrological, water resources and climate experts, in order to quantify and predict the components of the current and future global water cycles, evaluate uncertainties, vulnerability including societal impacts, economical aspects.
It will evaluate how the water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change (including land cover change)
Duration: 2007 - 2011
EU-Contribution: € 10 million
Evaluation of the response of global water cycle to climate change.
Slide22 : FLASH Project
The project is addressing the topic of flash flood forecasting using rainfall-lightning relationships for ameliorating rainfall forecasts.
It is also expected to provide a substantial improvement in flash flood warning in Europe with a major focus on the Mediterranean region
Duration: 2006 - 2009
EU-Contribution: € 1.2 million
Short term forecasting of flash floods: Observations, analysis and modelling of lightening activity in thunderstorms.
Slide23 : FLOODsite Project
The project is producing improved understanding of specific flood processes and mechanisms and methodologies for flood risk analysis and management ranging from the high level management of risk at a river basin, estuary and coastal processes. It includes specific actions on the hazards of coastal extremes, coastal morphodinamics and flash flood forecasting as well as understanding of social vulnerability and flood impacts.
Duration: 2004 - 2009
EU-Contribution: € 9.6 million
Integrated flood risk analysis and management methodologies.
Slide24 : Hydrate Project
Overall the project aims to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the understanding of processes.
The project will improve the scientific basis for flash flood forecasting, extending the understanding of past events , advancing and harmonising a flash flood observation strategy and developing a set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems.
Duration: 2006 - 2009
EU-Contribution: € 2.4 million
Effective flash flood forecasting: Hydro -meteorological data resources and technologies.
Output of the EC Workshop: Scientific and Policy Report Input to this Conference of the German Presidency : Output of the EC Workshop: Scientific and Policy Report Input to this Conference of the German Presidency
Workshop on Climate Change Impacts on Water Cycle, Quality and Resources
Organised by the European Commission
(DG Research, DG Environment and the JRC)
in Brussels, 25-26 September 2006
EC Report on: Research – Policy Interface : EC Report on: Research – Policy Interface Strategic input from the research and policy communities on climate change and water
Climate change impacts on water cycle, resources and quality : Climate change impacts on water cycle, resources and quality
SCIENTIFIC & POLICY SUMMARY OF THE EC REPORT
Research results are needed to further improve the understanding of key drivers and their interactions with human activities and the combined consequences
Research should focus on:
Analysis on the physical and ecological impacts of climate change
Adaptation and mitigation strategies and measures
Socio-economic impacts of climate change
Improvement of models
monitoring
Climate change impacts on water cycle, resources and quality : Climate change impacts on water cycle, resources and quality
SCIENTIFIC & POLICY SUMMARY OF THE EC REPORT
Important issues to consider on the research strategy:
Uncertainty
Geographical dimension
Sectorial dimension
Scientific results must be integrated within the policy developments
Environment (incl. Climate Change) : Climate Change, pollution
and risks Sustainable management of resources Environmental Technologies Conservation and sustainable management of natural and man-made ressources
Evolution of marine environments - Earth observation
- Forecasting methods and assessment tools
Pressures on environment and climate
Environnent and health
Natural Hazards Technologies for observation, prevention,
mitigation of the natural and man-made
environment
Technology assessment, verification, testing Earth observation and assessment tools Environment (incl. Climate Change)
FP7- Environment (incl. Climate Change) : Climate Change, pollution and risks FP7- Environment (incl. Climate Change) Integrated research on the functioning of climate and the earth system, including the polar regions, is needed in order to observe and analyse how these systems evolve and predict their future evolution. This will enable the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change and its current and future impacts. Pressures on environment and climate from anthropogenic and natural emissions will be investigated as well as related interactions. Advanced climate change models from the global to sub-regional scales will be developed and applied to assess changes, potential natural and socio-economic impacts and critical thresholds. Climate induced changes to atmospheric composition, greenhouse gases and to the water cycle will be studied. Emphasis will also be given to feedback mechanisms and abrupt changes. Novel responses to climate changes will also be studied. - ate -
Slide31 : -Pressures on environment and climate- Area 1: The Earth System and Climate: Functioning and abrupt changes
Area 2: Emissions and Pressures: natural and anthropogenic
Area 3: The Global Carbon cycle - GreenHouse Gas budgets
Area 4: Future Climate
Area 5: Climate Change Natural and Socio-economic Impacts
Area 6. Response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and Policies
7th Framework programme (2007-2013) Climate Research : 7th Framework programme (2007-2013) Climate Research While continuing existing climate-related research, FP7 will emphasize:
Climate change impacts on atmosphere and on the water cycle and resources
Downscaling of models to predict impacts on regional and local scales
Natural and socio-economic impacts of CC and related hazards and extreme events
Mitigation and adaptation strategies
Awareness raising
International cooperation
FP- Preparation of the Work Programme : FP- Preparation of the Work Programme Annual process
Following consultation and expert advice:
Advisory Group
Open consultations
Symposia, Workshops, expert meetings, etc
Climate Change Research Challenges Symposium, February 06
‘Climate change impact on water resources’, September 2006
‘Time to adapt: Climate change and the European water dimension, February 2007’
Polar Environment and Climate Symposium, March 07
EU-India S&T Workshop, February 07
Consultation with other Commission Directorate Generals
Subject to opinion by Programme Committees (Member State representatives)
Timetable for the WP 2008 Preparation (1st and 2nd call) : Timetable for the WP 2008 Preparation (1st and 2nd call) December 2006
Publication of the 1st call for proposals
End 2007
Publication of the 2nd call for proposals
Firsts calls for proposals : Firsts calls for proposals Research themes highlights:
Changes in thermohaline circulation
Sea-level rise
Ocean acidification
Storms, floods and droughts
Impact of extreme events on carbon cycle
Air quality and climate in mega-cities
Deforestation in the tropics
Full costs of climate change
New components in earth system models
Climate Change impacts on ecosystems
International Co-operation : International Co-operation FP open to international partners
Strategic events to define common research priorities e.g.
EU-India Initiative –Strategic Workshop on Climate research needs (Feb. 07)
EU-China Partnership on Climate Change
EU-US Workshop on Climate Research needs (Feb. 06)
EU-Russia Workshop on Climate Research needs (March 06)
Slide37 : Pressures on Environment and Climate
(1st Call: 39 ME) The Earth System and Climate: Functioning & abrupt changes The Global Carbon cycle
and GHG budgets Natural and anthropogenic emissions and pressures Future Climate Climate Change Natural and Socio-economic Impacts Response strategies; Adaptation, Mitigation and Policies Ocean acidification Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation Air quality and climate in megacities Climate change adaptation strategies in water policies Climate change impacts on mountain regions Climate change impacts in the Parana-Plata river basin Full costs of climate change Adaptation to changes of the hydrological cycle Impacts of climate policies on land use and ecosystems Exploitation and dissemination of research results EC policy support:
European Climate Change Program, Marine Strategy, EU water policy, Sustainable Development Strategy, Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, Common Agricultural Policy, EU Forestry Strategy … Links to other research activities and programs International cooperation: (Russia, India, China, US, South America,…)
INFORMATION : INFORMATION EU research: http://ec.europa.eu/research/
Seventh Framework Programme: http://ec.europa.eu/research/future/index_en.cfm
Information on research programmes and projects:
http://cordis.europa.eu/
RTD info magazine:
http://ec.europa.eu/research/rtdinfo/
Information requests:
research@ec.europa.eu
Slide39 : Thank you