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Global and Regional Climate Change: What on Earth are We Doing?!: 

Global and Regional Climate Change: What on Earth are We Doing?! Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science Department Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Ames Morning Rotary Club, 22 September 2004

Outline: 

Outline Evidence for global climate change Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Simulations of global climate and future climate change Implications for the Midwest What can I do?

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature: 

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature: 

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature: 

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004 2040

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature: 

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature: 

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

Associated Climate Changes: 

Associated Climate Changes Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Slide10: 

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

Slide12: 

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Slide14: 

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Slide15: 

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

Slide16: 

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Slide17: 

40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Slide18: 

Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers: 

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d: 

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

Climate Surprises: 

Climate Surprises Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water) Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

For the Midwest: 

For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding

Slide27: 

Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Simulations for a scenario climate for 2040s shows 20% increase in precip- itation and 50% increase in stream flow

“Warming Hole”: 

“Warming Hole” DTmax (JJA) ˚C

Slide29: 

Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security. And if it is not seriously debated in the general election, it will measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class. This is an issue that cannot, and must not, be ignored any longer.

Slide30: 

Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security. And if it is not seriously debated in the general election, it will measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class. This is an issue that cannot, and must not, be ignored any longer. Walter Cronkite 12 March 2004 http://www.philly.com/mld/dailytimes/news/opinion/8159334.htm

What Can I Do?: 

What Can I Do? Conserve energy Adopt a simpler lifestyle: “Elegant simplicity” “Sophisticated modesty” “Affluence lite” Sustainable Development: To meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs Brundtland Commission (World Commission on Environment and Development)

Summary: 

Summary Climate change is real and should be considered something other than “tomorrow’s problem” We are committed to a warming over the next 40 years regardless of what policy path we choose Policy decisions today will affect global warming and associated environmental changes in the latter half of the 21st century and beyond Consider adopting a simpler lifestyle

For More Information: 

For More Information See my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu