Global Warming Energy Challenges : Global Warming Energy Challenges RecycleWorks Brown Bag Lecture Series
County of San Mateo
January 31, 2006
Overview : Overview Greenhouse effect
Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise
Forcing models / temperature predictions
Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)
Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
Future and current energy challenges
Energy equity – and the road ahead
Solar Energy and earth’s Heat : Solar Energy and earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
Global Warming - the 20th Century : http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm Global Warming - the 20th Century
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions : 250 yrs of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll
burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
Rising CO2 over 50 Years : Rising CO2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
Carbon Emissions and CO2 : Carbon Emissions and CO2 Carbon burned => CO2
Linear from 1850 to 2000
- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2
33% into the oceans
Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years? A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Projected Energy Demand : Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
GHG Emissions by Source : GHG Emissions by Source
Future CO2 – the Next 30 Yrs : Future CO2 – the Next 30 Yrs Based on 2% annual growth in carbon emissions 2000 - 2030
Global Climate Models (GCM) : Global Climate Models (GCM) Ab Initio modeling
From first principles
Modeling land and sea temps from 1900 - 2000
Complexity and data
Climate is a dynamic system – ‘complex’ math
GISS study
10 year study over oceans
Sea temps ~7,500 ft depth
Satellite data for forcing
Slide12 : http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm
Forcing Calculations : Forcing Calculations Forcing (Watts) = atmospheric forcing factor multiplied by:
ln (ppm gas conc. current / ppm gas conc. historic)
2) ATM forcing factor for CO2 calculated (est.) to be 5.85 watts
3) For 2005, calculation = 5.85 W * ln (380 ppm / 280 ppm) = ~1.8W
4) For CO2, climate sensitivity = 2/3 degree C per 1 watt of forcing
5) 25 to 50 years for the climate to respond to 60% of this forcing Some math is required…. You can model this in Excel and predict temperatures from ppm [CO2]
Earth Out of Balance : Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100 : Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100 0F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
The Carbon Cycle : The Carbon Cycle Why atmospheric CO2 is the last thing on earth humans should have interfered with!
We are releasing CO2 at one million times the rate that earth initially sequestered it at
We inserted ourselves in the carbon cycle
And are affecting the ‘thermostat of life’
Earth uses CO2 to help maintain an optimum temperature for the biosphere, for > 650K years
The Thermostat of Life : The Thermostat of Life Vostok ice core data show regular and repeating cycles of temps and CO2 over last ~500,000 years
Oscillate between 180 and 280 ppm CO2 and 100 C
Hypothesis that earth regulates the temperature of the planet through CO2 / greenhouse effect
Biosphere maintains a precise level of CO2 for life
But the biosphere isn’t really absorbing our CO2
Y intercept of cum. carbon burn / CO2 is 297 ppm
http://courses.washington.edu/pcc589/papers/Shackleton2000.pdf
Vostok CO2 and Temperature : Vostok CO2 and Temperature The relationship between CO2 and temperature is nearly perfect (r2*100 = 99)
However, the casual relationship is the basis for significant (expert) controversy
Why does this occur?
The Vostok Equilibrium : The Vostok Equilibrium Vostok ‘equilibrium’
100K year cycles
earth’s orbital eccentricity
Sun heats up the planet
Biosphere expands
CO2 maintains temp
Otherwise earth would be very cold ~ 0 degrees F
CO2 has not exceeded 280 ppm in the last 500K years and 4 major cycles
Crux of the Vostok Data : Crux of the Vostok Data Temperature leads biomass CO2, then CO2 maintains temperature
Just One Degree F : Just One Degree F These examples will show the affect of warming the earth at just one degree F
And for less than 50 years!
Warming has accelerated in last ~20 years
The affect of temperature is cumulative
Earth takes decades to centuries to react
And we still owe an additional degree F!
Long Term Warming Effects : Long Term Warming Effects Not just increased temperature, but added heat, for a long, long, time!
Consequences of Warming : Consequences of Warming Thinning of polar ice caps
Thawing permafrost / release of methane
Slowing of the thermohaline cycle
Rising sea level, perhaps quickly
Extreme weather events
Extended regions of drought
Extremes of temperature / duration
Extremes of storms and hurricanes All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
Storms on the Move : Storms on the Move Katrina moving
across Florida
in late August 2005
finds warm water
in the Gulf of Mexico And grows from a
category 1 to a
category 5 hurricane
in less than 2 days!
The Melting North Pole : The Melting North Pole The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness : Arctic Sea Ice Thickness http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html
Thermohaline Cycle : Thermohaline Cycle NASA schematic view of ocean circulation. The light colored path shows the general movement of the surface waters and the dark colored path shows the movement of water at depth. The numbers show the position of: 1. The Gulf Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formation which results from strong cooling. 3. Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea ice production around Antarctica.
http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/om.html
Antarctica Cracking : Antarctica Cracking
Calving Ice Shelf Process : Calving Ice Shelf Process Calving at the edge of the ice shelf
Shelves hold the main ice flows back
As they break, ice flows into the sea Melt water fills the ice crevice
Water sinks, crevices expand -
Fissuring the shelf into pieces Antarctic holds >80%
of earth’s fresh water Like the Arctic, it
moderates the climate
Slide30 : The Larsen B Ice Shelf was the size of Rhode Island!
Greenland Melting : Greenland Melting http://www.comcast.net/data/news/photoshow/html/news/246569.html
Retreating Glaciers : Retreating Glaciers http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
Sea Level Expansion : Sea Level Expansion Sea expands from water molecule changing 0.0002 in volume for each 0C
Over 5,000 to 7,500 meters, it adds up
Thermal expansion is 1 – 2 cm / 10 yrs.
But is accelerating to 2.5 cm / decade
For every 1 0C, sea expands ~1 meter in height - sea cannot expand ‘down or out’ http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsProbability.html
Sea Level Rise : Sea Level Rise http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slr30mla/viewer.htm
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ : Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Projected Energy Demand : Projected Energy Demand http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
World Oil Production History : World Oil Production History http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil
Oil Discovery (3 year average - past and projected) 1930-2050 : Oil Discovery (3 year average - past and projected) 1930-2050 http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htm
Oil Production – Reserves : Oil Production – Reserves Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Energy Equity : Energy Equity Burning oil is burning money!
Build an energy infrastructure with equity
Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
$25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’
Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in manufacturing, and 8 for local installers
Built in America, by Americans, for America, what could be more economic? http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
10 Key Energy Challenges : 10 Key Energy Challenges Fuel cells
Hydrogen
Solar energy
Batteries
Motors New power grid
Low power lighting
Insulation materials
Safer nuclear power
CO2 sequestration Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy Economy
An Apollo style program on a Manhattan Project Timeline
Building a Solar Economy : Building a Solar Economy Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy
25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025
Solar brings true energy independence from carbon
It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s
Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry
Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005 One Million Solar Roofs – ‘California, the Solar State’
Cars - a Growing Global Problem : Cars - a Growing Global Problem
A New Auto Economy? : A New Auto Economy? New types of cars
Electric cars
Hydrogen cars
Hydrogen hybrids
Transportation is a key area of growing CO2
And one area where we can individually make key changes in the CO2 that we each produce
A Real Hybrid Vehicle : A Real Hybrid Vehicle Gas Electric Synergy Drive™ - ‘plug-in hybrids’ coming soon
Flexible Fuel Electric Plug-in Hybrids : Flexible Fuel Electric Plug-in Hybrids 1 KWhr will power this ‘hybrid’ car about 4 miles
Burning natural gas for electricity, will generate about 1 lb. of CO2
Compare to 2 pounds of CO2 at 40 mpg (petrol)
Recharge car at night, when power rates are low.
Put ‘power on the grid’ during the day with solar. http://www.evworld.com/electrichybrid.cfm
A New Electron Economy : A New Electron Economy $1 - 2 trillion for solar energy
$1 trillion in a new power grid
$2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars
$1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances
Energy needs to join the digital age
Networked and distributed power sources Solar power is an ‘edge of network’ asset in a distributed power system
Move Differently : Move Differently SolarSegway™
Range ~8 - 12 miles
Battery packs can be charged locally (~5 hrs)
Emission free vehicle
Solar panels ‘extra’
Projected cost of $2,500 in quantity
Zero Emission Economy : Zero Emission Economy Global population pressure creates a big problem in controlling carbon emissions
8 billion people * 1.25 tons carbon / person
10 G tons of carbon burned per year
50% more than the 6.6 G tons of carbon today
The only solution is zero-emission power
Nuclear and solar are the long-term options, and significant growth in wind generated power
Wind Power – Real Power : Wind Power – Real Power
Wind Power Statistics : Wind Power Statistics Germany has over 14,000 MW installed
North Dakota has only 70 MW installed
And the same amount of wind as Germany
Midwest has excellent wind resources
Europe has made this commitment
USA is poised to make similar choices
GE and Clipper Wind are two key producers
The Complexity of the Problem : The Complexity of the Problem Several variables
Population growth
Income rise and development
Energy mix (fuel type)
Manufacturing vs. service economies
China has different challenges than the US
Energy driven activities
Production, consumption, transportation
Global Carbon Profiles : Global Carbon Profiles Africa & India 0.3 China 0.6 Mexico 1.0 France 2.0 Germany 2.2 England 2.5 Canada 4.0 USA 6.0 Developing World Europe North America Tons of carbon per person in year 2000 => average = 1.1
The Population Problem : 8 billion people @ 1.25 tons each = 10 G tons of carbon / year
That is 50% more carbon emissions than today! The Population Problem
Sense of Urgency, call to Action : Sense of Urgency, call to Action We are at the end of the oil age
Need ‘energy equity’ in place soon
Solar and wind energy are obvious
Deployable now and in quantity
Need to look at safer nuclear energy
To replace coal and gas, augment solar
Create hydrogen for transportation ‘fuel’
Time to market is less than 25 years!
From Information to Choices : From Information to Choices We can do this, but the clock is running!
Where Do We Want to Be? : Where Do We Want to Be? Deciding where we want to be
Then planning how to get there
Choosing our leaders based on energy policy – California is a leader
Bottom up leadership – tipping points
2006 is the year for you to be a leader! Each one of us must be a leader in this technology revolution!
Disaster or Catastrophe? : Published in : IPCC Third Assessment Report - Synthesis Report Figure number : 9.3 Disaster or Catastrophe?
What You Can Do : What You Can Do Drive less, drive smart
Invest in solar energy
Conserve on energy use
We need to cut CO2 emissions by 80%
Be deeply aware of the problem
This is the most significant problem facing the planet over the next 50 to 100 years
What we do in the next 25 years is critical!
Summary : Summary Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle
Forcing models – temperature lag
Effect of warming just one degree
Peak oil – declining energy production
Energy Equity – and the road ahead
Our single biggest challenge
Our single biggest opportunity
References : References http://www.realclimate.org/
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html
http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
http://www.nrel.gov/
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://www.architecture2030.org/
Sustainable Silicon Valley : Sustainable Silicon Valley http://www.sustainablesiliconvalley.org/ Partnering with businesses, nonprofits, cities and counties to reduce CO2 emissions in San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda and Santa Cruz Counties