Delta II 041207 5B1 5D

2007 Economic OutlookDelta Area Development Inc.: 

2007 Economic Outlook Delta Area Development Inc.

Slide2: 

Presented by Richard Wobbekind www.leeds.colorado.edu

U.S. Outlook: 

U.S. Outlook

Gross Domestic Product: 

Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, CO BEO Committee. Percent Change Percent Change 5.1 Nominal GDP Deflator 2.5 2.6 Real GDP

National Employment (000s): 

National Employment (000s) Jobs Added Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Situation, SA. Dismal Scientist

Gross Domestic Product: 

Gross Domestic Product Consumption Investment Government Expenditures Net Exports

Index of U.S. Consumer Confidence: 

1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board. Rocky Mountain U.S. Index of U.S. Consumer Confidence

Daily Stock Market Indices: 

Daily Stock Market Indices 1996=100 Source: Dismal Scientist (NASDAQ, NYSE, S&P) 1996=100 NASDAQ S&P 500 NYSE

NAHB Housing Market Index: 

NAHB Housing Market Index Source: NAHB, Dismal Scientist

ISM Indices: 

ISM Indices Source: Dismal Scientist.

Federal Budget Balance : 

Federal Budget Balance $ Billions Source: Consensus Forecast.

Real Net Exports: 

Real Net Exports $bn Source: Consensus Forecast.

US Nominal Broad Dollar Index: 

US Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1997 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Money, Interest Rates, Prices: 

Money, Interest Rates, Prices

Interest Rates: 

Interest Rates Source: The Federal Reserve Board, Consensus Forecast 3-mth T-bill 10-yr T-bond Consensus Forecast

Oil Prices – West Texas Intermediate: 

Oil Prices – West Texas Intermediate Source: Consensus Forecast, Dismal Scientist $/Barrel Consensus Forecast

U.S. Summary : 

U.S. Summary Slowing, but growing Solid job growth/Unemployment Rates Productivity growth??? Consumption growth slowing??? Investment remains solid Slightly contractionary monetary policy Weaker dollar

Concerns Or Risks to the Forecast: After all I am an economist… : 

Concerns Or Risks to the Forecast: After all I am an economist… Geopolitical turmoil Oil Prices The twin deficits Housing market collapsed Changing demographics

Population, Income, Prices, and Employment: 

Population, Income, Prices, and Employment

Change in Population: 

Change in Population Net Migration Natural Change 1997=100 Thousands Source: Department of Local Affairs, CO BEO Committee. 94.7 Net Migration Natural Change

Personal and Per Capita Income: 

Personal and Per Capita Income 168.3 1997=100 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, CO BEO Committee. 188.8 16.6 Colorado United States Dollars $40,749 $37,345 Colorado United States

U.S. and Denver-Boulder-Greeley Consumer Price Index : 

U.S. and Denver-Boulder-Greeley Consumer Price Index CPI Rate 2.5 2.7 United States Denver-Boulder-Greeley Source: CO Dept. of Labor and Employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CO BEO Committee.

Index of Housing Prices – Colorado Metro Areas: 

Index of Housing Prices – Colorado Metro Areas 1996=100 United States Colorado Boulder MSA Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. 10 Yr. CAGR % Change from 2005 CO Growth

Total Colorado EmploymentNon-Ag Wage and Salary (2001-2006): 

Total Colorado Employment Non-Ag Wage and Salary (2001-2006) 2002 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands Thousands 2004 2006 2005 2001

New Jobs Created in Goods-Producing Sectors: 

New Jobs Created in Goods-Producing Sectors Employees Source: CO BEO Committee. +5,200 Jobs

New Jobs Created inService-Producing Sectors: 

New Jobs Created in Service-Producing Sectors Employees Source: CO BEO Committee. +37,100 Jobs

Slide27: 

% Change Source: Western Blue Chip, CO BEO Committee. CO U.S. 2007 Employment Growth Colorado vs. the West

Agriculture: 

Agriculture

Realized Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income: 

Realized Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income $ Millions Realized Net Income $700 Farm Production Expenses Source: Colorado Agricultural Statistic Service, CO BEO Agriculture Committee. 2007 Gross Revenue - $6.5 Billion Services and Forestry Govt. Payments Crops Livestock Gross Farm Revenue

Tourism: 

Tourism

Colorado Lift Tickets Sold: 

Colorado Lift Tickets Sold Millions Millions Source: Colorado Ski Country USA, CO BEO Committee. 12.76

International Trade: 

International Trade

Colorado Agricultural Exports: 

Colorado Agricultural Exports Source: CO BEO Committee.

Value of Colorado Exports Fiscal Years 2001-2007: 

Value of Colorado Exports Fiscal Years 2001-2007 $ Millions Total $8,885.1 Source: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, CO BEO Committee.

Summary: 

Summary Percentage Change in Colorado Annual Employment Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, CO BEO Committee.

Slide36: 

CES Employment Trends Super Sector Employment Trends What Recession? Natural Resources Financial Activities Education and Health Services Other Services Government Led the Recovery (One year) Trade, Transportation, Utilities Professional Business Services Leisure and Hospitality The Recovery is on the Horizon Construction Manufacturing Information Advanced Technology Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics Thousands Peak to Peak (6/01 to 5/06) 59 Months Total Colorado Employment Non-Ag Wage and Salary (2001-2006)

Key State Issues: 

Key State Issues Change in state leadership State legislature will face difficult fiscal choices Legislative issues Water availability Education funding Maintenance of transportation infrastructure Business concerns Energy costs Healthcare Employment costs

Delta County: 

Delta County

A Quick Demographic Comparison: 

A Quick Demographic Comparison Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Delta County Wages: 

Delta County Wages 2005 Total Wages $213.1 Million Source: Colorado Department of Labor, QCEW

2005 Average Annual WagesDelta vs. Surrounding Counties: 

2005 Average Annual Wages Delta vs. Surrounding Counties Colorado Delta Source: Colorado Department of Labor, QCEW

Delta County and Colorado2005 Employment by Category: 

Delta County and Colorado 2005 Employment by Category Percentage Source: Colorado Department of Labor, QCEW Colorado Delta

Delta County Occupations: 

Delta County Occupations Source: Colorado Prospects Top 5 Occupations Employment * Occupation in CO’s top 25 fastest growing occupations in the next 10 years

Percentage Change in Retail Sales Delta County: 

Percentage Change in Retail Sales Delta County Delta 35% Colorado Source: Colorado Department of Revenue

Retail Trade Sales Percentage Change : 

Retail Trade Sales Percentage Change Delta Colorado Source: Colorado Department of Revenue

Slide46: 

QCEW Employment Trends Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics # Employees Peak to Peak (8/01 to 8/04) 48 Months Total Delta Employment All Industries Private Employment (2001-2006)