Slide2 : Outline Timeline and progress to date
Overarching question and conceptual premise
Conceptual models
a. Ecological systems submodels
b. Human systems submodels
c. Integrated social-natural systems model
4. Implementation framework
5. Summary
6. Potential 2007 Funding Initiatives
Slide3 : Sept ’03 ASM Exec Proposal G100 NSWGs June ‘05 Infrastructure
Knowledge
-Partners Conference
Committee NSF
Proposal and program
development
phase May ‘06
CC Mtg Sept ‘06
ASM CI NEON New Timeline & Project Plan
OVERARCHING QUESTION : OVERARCHING QUESTION How do changes in human populations and their behavior, climate variation, altered biogeochemical cycles, and biotic structure interact to affect ecosystem structure and function and their services to society?
OVERARCHING QUESTION : OVERARCHING QUESTION How do changes in human populations and their behavior, climate variation, altered biogeochemical cycles, and biotic structure interact to affect ecosystem structure and function and their services to society?
Changes in human population density
Redistribution of population nationally and locally
Increased availability and distribution of limiting resources
Altered biotic composition and structure
Increased variability in environmental drivers (e.g. climate, sea level rise)
Slide6 : Human activities tend to be associated with changes in key resources and drivers (e.g., CO2, nitrogen, H2O, sea level rise).
These changes can be classified as either pulses (discrete events) and presses (continuous). Central Premise
Slide7 : Human activities tend to be associated with changes in key resources and drivers (e.g., CO2, nitrogen, H2O, sea level rise).
These changes can be classified as either pulses (discrete events) and presses (continuous).
Individual species have evolved adaptations to capture and use resources and to respond to various environmental drivers.
Thus, changes in resource availability or environmental drivers are likely to have significant consequences for species interactions, community structure and ecosystem functioning. Central Premise
Slide8 : Human activities tend to be associated with changes in key resources and drivers (e.g., CO2, nitrogen, H2O, sea level rise).
These changes can be classified as either pulses (discrete events) and presses (continuous).
Individual species have evolved adaptations to capture and use resources and to respond to various environmental drivers.
Thus, changes in resource availability or environmental drivers are likely to have significant consequences for species interactions, community structure and ecosystem functioning.
Human social systems are also spatially and temporally dynamic, and also respond to [and cause] pulse and press events.
Social system drivers and dynamics (tax laws, regulations, preferences, behaviors) directly affect ecological processes.
Ecological processes have feedbacks that affect human social systems. Central Premise
Slide9 : Establish a framework for an integrated long-term multi-site research program based on (anthropogenic) pulse-press interactions in ecosystems.
Press factor – variable or driver that is applied continuously at rates ranging from low to high (e.g., atmospheric nitrogen deposition, elevated CO2). Includes changes in rates (increases, decreases) relative to some historical baseline.
Pulse factor – variable or driver that is applied once or at periodic intervals (e.g., fire, extreme climatic events). Includes changes in the size, magnitude and frequency at which pulses occur.
Concept from Bender et al. 1984. Perturbation experiments in community ecology: Theory and practice. Ecology 65(1):1-13. Approach
Slide10 : Ecosystem
functioning
1/ 2 production,
decomposition,
nutrient cycling Biotic structure
rank-dominance curves,
life-history traits Human behavior (society, policy, economics) Ecosystem
services
food, pest/disease control,
erosion control, soil fertility Long-term “press”
e.g., N deposition, species invasions, temperature
Short-term “pulse”
e.g., fire, storms Conceptual Model
Slide11 : Ecosystem
functioning
1/ 2 production,
decomposition,
nutrient cycling Biotic structure
rank-dominance curves,
life-history traits Human behavior (society, policy, economics) Ecosystem
services
food, pest/disease control,
erosion control, soil fertility Long-term “press”
e.g., N deposition, species invasions, temperature
Short-term “pulse”
e.g., fire, storms
Slide12 : Ecosystem
functioning
1/ 2 production,
decomposition,
nutrient cycling Biotic structure
rank-dominance curves,
life-history traits Human behavior (society, policy, economics) Ecosystem
services
food, pest/disease control,
erosion control, soil fertility Long-term “press”
e.g., N deposition, species invasions, temperature
Short-term “pulse”
e.g., fire, storms Human component
Slide14 : REGIONAL AND LOCAL ATTRACTORS:
Water
Cost of living
Landscape Aesthetics/BD REDISTRIBUTION OF
HUMAN POPULATION
AND TRADE IMPLICATIONS:
For: Eco Services, Biotic Structure, Policy and Economics
E.g. Spatial/Temporal variation in fluxes of nutrients, water, temperature
Conduct cross-site EXPERIMENTS (socioeconomic and ecological) FUTURES/OUTCOMES/SCENARIOS:
Landscape, regional, continental
Created by meeting of all stakeholders
CONCEPTUAL MODELS
Slide15 : Model: Inter-Regional Population Distribution, Trade: -water scarcity; landscape; climate; natural resource base for economy or quality of life; cost of living; regional economic policy; shipping access. Model: Local Population Distribution: - Drivers: local water scarcity; transport, telecom, house cost; landscape to urban amenity gradient; biotic diversity; land use control, incentive policies. Economic incentives/policy experiments affecting land use: fragmentation, nutrients, carbon, water Observational/natural experiments/data on policy Implications: Spatio-temporal press and pulse disturbances or inflows to ecosystem
range of nutrient concentration, location;
Habitat fragmentation, invasion
Water stresses Outcomes/Scenarios inform LTER/companion experiments; stakeholder/scientist futuring Multi-site Ecology Experiments inform: landscape and biotic conditions. From LTER
Socio-economic approaches : Socio-economic approaches Quantify regional scale vs. local scale drivers of human population redistribution and behavior.
Contrast how attitudes and drivers of human population dynamics vary among regions.
Catalogue impacts of population dynamics and decisions on ecosystem services and biotic structures.
Develop ecological scenarios and present scenarios to stakeholders.
Assess human perceptions, desires, and expectations for ecosystem goods and services.
Determine how changes in ecosystem services feed back to affect population preferences, movement patterns, etc.
Slide17 : Ecosystem
functioning
1/ 2 production,
decomposition,
nutrient cycling Biotic structure
rank-dominance curves,
life-history traits Human behavior (society, policy, economics) Ecosystem
services
food, pest/disease control,
erosion control, soil fertility Long-term “press”
e.g., N deposition, species invasions, temperature
Short-term “pulse”
e.g., fire, storms The Non-Human Component
Slide18 : Organismal response Community re-ordering Community change Biotic Response Time Press (e.g. N deposition) System Response Trajectories
A “punctuated equilibrium” model
Slide19 : System Response Trajectories Press (e.g. N deposition) Organismal response Community re-ordering Community change Biotic Response Time Very resistant system Rapid community-level response
Slide20 : Observational:
Capture gradients and spatiotemporal variation: human-dominated, climatic, N-loading, etc.
Measure variables above in consistent, coordinated manner over long-term.
Inclusion of sites within and outside of LTER network.
Ecological Approach
Slide21 : 2. Experimental
A. Manipulations:
press driver * pulse driver * biotic structure
Ex: N deposition * fire/drought/storm * dominant taxa
B. Measurements:
coordinated & comparable response variables
scale-independent measures of community structure across trophic levels
some measure of connectivity among trophic levels
rates of primary & secondary production / community metabolism
system efficiency (retention & export of C, N, P)
Ecological Approach
Slide22 :
3. Modeling
Simulation models
Conceptual models
Forecasting/scenario models
Economic models
Human demographics and land use change models
Ecological Approach
Slide23 : Ecosystem
functioning
1/ 2 production,
decomposition,
nutrient cycling Biotic structure
rank-dominance curves,
life-history traits Human behavior (society, policy, economics) Ecosystem
services
food, pest/disease control,
erosion control, soil fertility Long-term “press”
e.g., N deposition, species invasions, temperature
Short-term “pulse”
e.g., fire, storms
Key Features : Key Features Explicitly integrates social and ecological science.
Iterative, interactive, and adaptive.
Site-based and synthetic, can include participation by all LTER sites.
Multi-site, coordinated.
Includes both long-term and short-term research.
Will take advantage of existing knowledge and strengths of the LTER network.
Will expand beyond the existing LTER network.
Will complement NEON and other networks.
Will offer novel education and training initiatives.
Will foster novel solutions to new CI challenges.
Will yield information relevant to decision makers
Does not come at a cost to existing site-based science.