Truth about the CSR

The truth about the Spending Review 2010 : 

The truth about the Spending Review 2010

Before we start - some key terms : 

Before we start - some key terms The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

Spending Review 2010 : 

Spending Review 2010 Deficit reduction of £110bn by 2015/16 Made up 73% spending cuts, 27% tax increases Cuts (over 4 years) across gov’t depts - apart from health and overseas aid which are “protected” Source: Institute of Fiscal Studies http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5311 The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

Slide 4: 

Would it have been the same under Labour? All figures below in £bn Data for graphs taken from slide in IFS report “Where Did the Axe Fall?” Oct 2010 http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5311 Con-Dems raise more money from tax but is due to a VAT increase that hits the poor hardest Con-Dems are making much bigger cuts than Labour

Slide 5: 

How do the spending cuts breakdown? All figures below in £bn Data for graphs taken from slide in IFS report “Where Did the Axe Fall?” Oct 2010 http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5311 Con-Dems revenue spending cuts nearly twice the size of Labour

Slide 6: 

Breakdown of revenue spending cuts - (all figures £ bn) Data for graphs taken from slide in IFS report “Where Did the Axe Fall?” Oct 2010 http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5311 Con-Dems cutting public services by £15bn more and attacking benefits too

The Chancellor said the review was…. : 

The Chancellor said the review was…. Unavoidable Fair And “we’re all in this together” Let’s see if that is true……. The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

Graph is based upon a slide from IFS presentation “Who Loses More from Public Service Cuts” Oct 2010http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5314 : 

Graph is based upon a slide from IFS presentation “Who Loses More from Public Service Cuts” Oct 2010http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5314 The regressive impact of tax and benefit measures in place by 2014–15 The graph below shows the % cost of tax and benefit changes as a proportion of each income decile. The left hand bar shows the bottom 10% of incomes, the right hand side shows the top 10% of incomes

The Daily Mail say the welfare bill is “bloated” – are they right? : 

The Daily Mail say the welfare bill is “bloated” – are they right? Let’s get past the spin and look at the facts. Below is a graph of the welfare costs (excluding pensions) as a per cent of GDP from 1950 The welfare bill is low compared to the 80s. It’s not as big a problem as the Con-Dems make out. They don’t need to cut benefits

Q: Is the national debt too high? : 

Q: Is the national debt too high? A: No, not compared to historic levels After the war the debt was high. But it paid for the NHS, the welfare state and lots of new infrastructure. Debt is not all bad.

How to lie with statistics – making the debt look worse : 

How to lie with statistics – making the debt look worse What happens if you only look at this bit of the graph?

Slide 12: 

1990 2000 2010 How to lie with statistics – making the debt look worse It looks bad doesn’t it? Seems to have gone up lots. But it would be misleading to do that wouldn’t it?

Slide 13: 

But no-one would really do that, would they? This was from Daily Telegraph 18 June 2009 Note the graph only shows ONE YEAR along the bottom

Slide 14: 

1990 2000 2010 How to lie with statistics – what the Daily Telegraph did 2008 2009 This is what their graph showed

Slide 15: 

Another way to look at what The Telegraph did……. This is what their graph showed

Slide 16: 

But our debt is high compared to other countries isn't it?

So, we’ve seen that the right wing media distort the facts about welfare and the national debt .Now let’s look at the deficit …… : 

So, we’ve seen that the right wing media distort the facts about welfare and the national debt .Now let’s look at the deficit …… The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

What is the deficit? : 

What is the deficit? The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

Deficit got bigger in 2009/10 by £132bn : 

Deficit got bigger in 2009/10 by £132bn Reduced tax receipts due to recession contribute to the deficit more than increased spending. Some of the extra spending is due to more benefit payments to the jobless. Tax receipts will go up and benefits costs will go down when the economy picks up

At least health is protected! : 

At least health is protected! Not really…….. Health - govt say 0.8% growth But health inflation 4–5% Cuts already happening. BMA survey of doctors in June 2010: 62% said there was a recruitment freeze 42% were limiting prescribing 40% were limiting access to treatments The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

Schools’ spending is going up say the government….. : 

Schools’ spending is going up say the government….. Schools’ spending incl pupil premium to grow by 0.1% pa but total pupil numbers to increase by 0.7% per year total schools spending per pupil cut by 0.6% per year Assuming flat-rate pupil premium of £2,400 60% of primary school pupils in schools where real funding falls 87% of secondary school pupils in schools where real funding falls Only 1 in 8 pupils in very deprived schools see increase of 5% or more Note: Assumes all schools experience the same growth in pupil numbers Info taken from slide in IFS report “Where Did the Axe Fall?” Oct 2010 http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5311

Alternative to spending cuts – raise income : 

Alternative to spending cuts – raise income The Truth about the Spending Review 2010 £30bn from a Robin Hood Tax on “casino banks” £4.7bn with a 50% tax rate on incomes over £100k £10bn by reforming tax havens and residence rules £14.9bn by stopping tax reliefs to subsidise incomes over £100k At least £1.5bn by bringing back windfall tax on bankers' bonuses £4bn by cancelling Trident £5bn with an Empty Property Tax on vacant dwellings Maintaining public spending will support the economic recovery and eventually tax receipts will increase by well over £40bn when the economy picks up

Slide 23: 

In 2008 Prof David Blanchflower said “something horrible” was going to happen with the economy. Of the Spending Review he says: “The austerity package is likely to turn out to be the greatest macro-economic mistake in a century.” Top economists who predicted the crash and now say cuts will damage the economy…………… In October 2006 Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz said there would be a crash “ within 24 months.” Now he says : “we're now looking at a long, hard, slow recovery…. if everybody cuts back at the same time.” Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman (who also predicted the crash) recently said: “The British government’s plan is bold, say the pundits — and so it is. But it boldly goes in exactly the wrong direction….. What happens now? ….premature fiscal austerity will lead to a renewed economic slump. The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

Slide 24: 

How will this affect jobs in the East Midlands? Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) in Oct 2010 said the cuts would mean: £4bn lost from local economy 29,000 public sector job losses in the East Mids and the same number in the private sector! Data for East Mids taken from PwC report and then apportioned by population size. PwC report is here: http://tinyurl.com/3ybjlgu

So what does it mean? : 

So what does it mean? Some areas of public sector will vanish, other areas will be slashed Huge impact on private sector – 29,000 public sector job losses in the East Mids and the same number in the private sector Economic growth will be devastated and then more cuts IFS say “tightest squeeze on spending since World War 2.” Even Margaret Thatcher did not make cuts like these! Ordinary people will pay the price while the bankers who caused the crash will get off virtually scot free The cuts are politically driven – the deficit can be cut with a fair tax system and by waiting for the economy to recover The Truth about the Spending Review 2010

What can I do? : 

What can I do? Public Services Don’t wait till they’ve gone to defend them Presentation produced by: UNISON (East Midlands) If you work in the public sector, join UNISON: unison.org.uk/join Sign up to our Million Voices for Public Services campaign: unison.org.uk/million/ Write to your MP – find your MP at: theyworkforyou.com/ Keep up to date on the campaign in the East Midlands: unisoneastmids.blogspot.com/ Attend the TUC mass demo in London on Sat 26 March 2011 to oppose these cuts: tuc.org.uk/mediacentre/tuc-18709-f0.cfm